[size=36][size=33]OPEC's next meeting and the direction of shock[/size][/size]
Ali Abdul Salman 81[ltr] 01/16/2017[/ltr]
Ali Abdul Salman 81[ltr] 01/16/2017[/ltr]
Dr.. Haider Hussain Al Tohme / Euphrates Center for Development and Strategic Studies
Freedom of markets that have been adopted from the presence of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries since the collapse of oil prices in June 2014 to remove shale oil and swallow a glut of supply and the recovery of oil prices to levels of $ 80 a barrel, the policy did not succeed, as the organization predicted, despite more than two years after the trauma.
The worsening fiscal deficits and the decline in growth rates and financial turmoil to the markets of the Gulf push oil ministers in OPEC to hold an extraordinary meeting in Algeria the end of September last to speed up restore the balance between supply and demand levels in the oil markets. It was agreed to reduce the production of the organization to the limits of 32.5-33 million barrels per day. Companies, which monitors shipping operations data indicate that the production of OPEC production last month totaled 33.6 million barrels a day.
This means that what needs to be reduced in accordance with the agreement is 600 thousand barrels a day at least, and 1.1 million barrels per day at the most. However, OPEC postponed the decision-making set for the production of each country, and formed a committee to draft the agreement and presented during the regular meeting of the organization in November 30 in Vienna to this adoption is final.
Install (or reduce) the oil production of the oil states levels inside and outside OPEC may limit the deterioration of prices to new highs, and sends good signals the global oil market adjusts future supplies and in an orderly fashion, hoping to push prices toward recovery and access to reasonable price equilibrium for a barrel of oil. However, it raised several issues about the agreement, the most important of the possibility of the parties agreement and serious commitment of all parties ceilings installed production if what has been agreed, and the extent of the oil markets and prices in response to the levels agreed upon installation.
Recovery expected
International oil markets have seen a marked improvement since the start senior oil draw the outline of an agreement Algeria's oil, and the judge to freeze production levels at current levels, has been nominated for the interaction of markets, with the installation of production planned in the Vienna Agreement (OPEC headquarters) next week a package of driving signals of prices perhaps the most notable :
1. The start of negotiations between top crude oil producers in the world, inside and outside OPEC, long step to reach an understanding geostrategic between senior oil (Saudi Arabia and Russia in particular), and this would calm down, at least from the price turmoil in the oil markets for months and it accelerates the market balance at the fair price of oil.
2. readiness of Russia and a number of oil from countries outside OPEC to join the installation of production and reduce the growing glut in the supply agreement in order to revive the prices may increase the credibility of the agreement and its impact on world oil markets.
3. adjusting production ceilings at specified levels, an essential element in stopping flooding the oil market, and a turning point in the supply and demand dynamics towards swallow oil glut. Especially with the continuation of a number of producers to challenge the market dynamics by enhancing production capacities and the granting of discounts, despite the sharp fall in prices.
4. It is hoped that the Vienna-oil agreement to a series of meetings and negotiations between the various parties in order to pave the way for Tndij new and viable energy policy for the application and the adoption of mechanisms Court re-monopoly power to producers of crude oil in the various countries of the world.
Sources of failure
Oil and energy experts did not hide the fear of failure of OPEC in stabilizing or reducing the levels of productivity because of the split between the winning Saudi-Iranian axis and the axis within the organization, which increases the oil market turmoil has threatened to unravel the new prices. In this context, it can monitor a number of risks to the next meeting of the Vienna and shrinking opportunities out members of an oil agreement uniform rein in production and supports the current price levels, perhaps the most important:
1. disclose the history of OPEC about the difficulty of identifying and reducing the levels of production decisions, highlighting the large number of tough questions, what is the overall reduction rate of the organization? Would-on-one ratio for all or will take effect only on the top producers? Does the organization meet Iraq, Iran, Libya, Nigeria exception calls from the planned reduction due to the decline in production capacity as a result of wars and international sanctions?
2. harbors global oil markets several doubts about the credibility of the stated figures for the levels of production of each country, as it is trying many oil-producing countries to install a record production figures to ensure safe production ceilings. The oil market has been interpreted as additional glut of supply current.
3. could hamper the global commercial oil inventories achieve the desired results of the meeting in Vienna because of the oil reaching record highs, it reached nearly 4446 million barrels at the end of the second quarter of this year. This will keep the record level of pressure on the price levels due to the possibility of resorting to such inventories to compensate for any shortage in oil supplies towards the oil market, which leaves the impression to the market not to get fundamental changes in the balance of global supply and demand in the foreseeable future.
4. Despite the relative improvement that has succeeded by installing the current production levels of oil prices, but the markets could see the result of heightened speculation of the results of the negotiations fluctuated between exporters from inside and outside OPEC on output quotas and the various parties commitment to production levels that are agreed upon .
5. freezing crude oil production near historic highs, would not significantly alter the balance of supply and demand at the present time, it has achieved the production of Russia, for example, the record levels registered a new peak in the era after the Soviet Union more than 11 million barrels a day.
6. Iran stands obstacle in the face of the first oil agreement (15 years ago) between producers inside OPEC and outside, despite Iran's support for a plan to freeze oil production, but it is firmly opposed to enroll in the new agreement, especially with its efforts to develop and revive the oil sector in the hope of regain market share lost years ago (4.2 barrels per day) after the lifting of sanctions recently.
7. There is a deep rift in confidence within OPEC today because of the Saudi-Iranian tensions and sharp differences on the Middle East issues, particularly the Syrian file, weakening the possibility of the success of the next meeting of OPEC, especially with conflicting political and security interests among OECD countries.
Twilight
Oil markets could see a new chapter of volatility and price turbulence, but this time it will not be a glut of production and the global economic slowdown usual role, but the potential from the presence of major oil-producing countries coordinate negotiations might work to feed oil price volatility and stir the desire to ride the wave of speculation. The International Energy Agency has described the suspension hopes to freeze production agreement is only conjecture or speculation about a prospective reduction in production, and that the expected recovery in prices in a false dawn.
It seems that the road in front of a rugged rivals out a final formula for the long-awaited deal, things are also complicated by differences «technical». So what are the real figures for the production of each country, and what additional available production capacity? Will OPEC has the ability to transform understandings Algeria to take the initial agreement at the Vienna meeting? Oscillating oil prices at the moment about the expected answer.
OPEC's failure to install production levels will not only succeed shock to oil markets, but the impact will extend to the credibility of the organization's role in the international oil markets and the loss of historical sparkle acquired as a monopoly controlling supply and global oil prices.
Yesterday at 7:23 am by Rocky
» Governor of Baghdad: 20 projects will be included during the current year in the city of Nahrawan
Yesterday at 7:20 am by Rocky
» More than $242 million in central bank sales today
Yesterday at 7:17 am by Rocky
» Advisor: Sudanese is determined to close the displacement file
Yesterday at 7:14 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani: The implementation of the 2023 budget witnessed a success that must be invested in
Yesterday at 7:13 am by Rocky
» The Baghdad Council will decide on the nomination of the committees in the coming days
Yesterday at 7:10 am by Rocky
» Al-Samarrai: The Sunni community is not in favor of removing American forces
Yesterday at 7:08 am by Rocky
» A warning from Al-Rasheed to those wishing to apply for advances and loans
Yesterday at 7:06 am by Rocky
» Azerbaijan expresses its desire to participate in the implementation of joint projects in the oil an
Yesterday at 7:05 am by Rocky
» Fuel cards arouse citizens' discontent
Yesterday at 7:03 am by Rocky
» utube 3/18/24 MM&C Iraqi Dinar-- IQD-- Dinar Update -100% Electronic - Real Effective Exchange Rat
Yesterday at 5:21 am by Rocky
» utube MM&C 3/16/24 0:05 / 18:16 Iraq Federal Court Brings - Strength to Financial - Politic
Yesterday at 5:18 am by Rocky
» MM&C 3/18/24 Sudanese Advisor: Iraq will leave government monetary dealing in mid-2024
Yesterday at 5:17 am by Rocky
» A delegation from the Kurdistan government visits Baghdad to discuss the issue of localization of sa
Yesterday at 5:11 am by Rocky
» Director of the Central Oil Company: We are keen to provide the appropriate investment environment
Yesterday at 5:10 am by Rocky
» The Energy Parliament calls for reporting generators violating government pricing
Yesterday at 5:08 am by Rocky
» A representative reveals the fate of the laws of “previous sessions”
Yesterday at 5:07 am by Rocky
» Politician: Coordination holds the keys to resolving the “Parliament Presidency” conflict
Yesterday at 5:05 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani: Iraq wants to carry out its peaceful activity in the field of atomic energy
Yesterday at 5:04 am by Rocky
» Including a minister and a parliamentarian... 38 arrest and recruitment orders were issued against t
Yesterday at 5:02 am by Rocky
» Integrity: Citizens’ cooperation resulted in detecting inflation and returning state funds
Yesterday at 5:01 am by Rocky
» Agriculture presents 97 projects to the Ministerial Council for the Economy
Yesterday at 4:59 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani: We succeeded in implementing the 2023 budget, and we must continue to complete economic p
Yesterday at 4:58 am by Rocky
» Labor adopts new mechanisms to reduce the phenomenon of begging
Yesterday at 4:57 am by Rocky
» Electronically.. directing the collection of fees tomorrow in an Iraqi governorate
Yesterday at 4:56 am by Rocky
» Held in Brussels.. Iraq receives an official invitation to attend the Nuclear Energy Summit
Yesterday at 4:55 am by Rocky
» Kurdistan has been paralyzed. There has been no liquidity in hand for 50 days, and the truth has bee
Yesterday at 4:53 am by Rocky
» The dollar continues to decline against the Iraqi dinar on the stock exchange and exchange offices
Yesterday at 4:52 am by Rocky
» The Minister of Oil reveals the reasons for Shell’s withdrawal from Nebras: It will be divided into
Yesterday at 4:51 am by Rocky
» The Housing Fund advises loan applicants and launches a link for inquiries
Yesterday at 4:50 am by Rocky
» He stressed that the government’s vision is to make one class not exceed 25 students...Government me
Yesterday at 4:48 am by Rocky
» Al-Hakim and Al-Halbousi stress the importance of choosing a speaker for Parliament in accordance wi
Yesterday at 4:47 am by Rocky
» Iron and Steel Company: Iraq is on the verge of a major industrial revolution
Yesterday at 4:46 am by Rocky
» Economists: Citizens still prefer cash transactions over electronic transactions
Yesterday at 4:45 am by Rocky
» The compass of Iraq's foreign policy in a world of turbulent polarization
Yesterday at 4:43 am by Rocky
» Parliamentary Finance: The federal budget is in the corridors of the Council of Ministers, and there
Yesterday at 4:42 am by Rocky
» Integrity calls on citizens to report the inflation of funds in the sector of the Ministry of Labor
Yesterday at 4:40 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani directs the launch of initiatives for young businessmen and investors
Yesterday at 4:38 am by Rocky
» Representative agriculture emphasizes taking supportive measures for the local product
Yesterday at 4:37 am by Rocky
» An economist calls on the government to support and stimulate the private sector
Yesterday at 4:36 am by Rocky
» Al-Ittihad: Employees and retirees in Kurdistan paid the price of political differences with Baghdad
Yesterday at 4:34 am by Rocky
» Al-Samarrai and Al-Hakim discuss the importance of achieving political and constitutional entitlemen
Yesterday at 4:32 am by Rocky
» Only 23 million dunums. Iraq exploits approximately 50% of its arable land
Yesterday at 4:30 am by Rocky
» Türkiye considers it a political issue.. Where have the negotiations reached regarding Iraq’s water
Yesterday at 4:29 am by Rocky
» Sudanese receives an invitation to attend the Nuclear Energy Summit in Brussels - Urgent
Yesterday at 4:27 am by Rocky
» Central Bank sales exceed $240 million today
Sun 17 Mar 2024, 6:52 am by Rocky
» Parliamentary Finance calls on the government to expedite sending the 2024 budget to Parliament
Sun 17 Mar 2024, 6:47 am by Rocky
» ‘We’re So Sick of It’: Northern Border Crisis Gets Worse
Sun 17 Mar 2024, 6:35 am by Bama Diva
» A representative holds Kurdistan responsible for the faltering legislation of the oil and gas law
Sun 17 Mar 2024, 5:27 am by Rocky
» Warnings of the danger of the increase in foreign labor in Iraq
Sun 17 Mar 2024, 5:26 am by Rocky
» Iraq's oil exports to America decreased within a week
Sun 17 Mar 2024, 5:25 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani chairs an “important” meeting to form the Kirkuk government
Sun 17 Mar 2024, 5:23 am by Rocky
» Investment confirms the adoption of a new method in new residential cities and explains its details
Sun 17 Mar 2024, 5:21 am by Rocky
» For the first time in 2024.. exchange rates fall to the threshold of 149 thousand in Baghdad
Sun 17 Mar 2024, 5:19 am by Rocky
» Including gold.. An increase in exports of 3 Turkish products to Iraq during 2024
Sun 17 Mar 2024, 5:18 am by Rocky
» A detailed integrity report regarding the Housing Fund... called for this matter
Sun 17 Mar 2024, 5:17 am by Rocky
» Resources count the number of trespassers in Baghdad.. What about restaurants?
Sun 17 Mar 2024, 5:16 am by Rocky
» At a cost of approximately two billion dinars... determining the completion rates achieved in the Ma
Sun 17 Mar 2024, 5:15 am by Rocky
» Parliament awaits the “Cabinet of Ministers” law
Sun 17 Mar 2024, 5:14 am by Rocky
» Provincial councils return after an absence with a heavy legacy
Sun 17 Mar 2024, 5:13 am by Rocky
» Iraq is the axis and meeting point of East and West
Sun 17 Mar 2024, 5:11 am by Rocky
» One million beneficiaries of health insurance early next May
Sun 17 Mar 2024, 5:10 am by Rocky
» Parliamentary Finance: Delaying the budget had a negative impact on the performance of the ministrie
Sun 17 Mar 2024, 5:09 am by Rocky
» The chaos of urban expansion threatens the agricultural character of Diwaniyah
Sun 17 Mar 2024, 5:08 am by Rocky
» A project to plant Japanese trees in Erbil
Sun 17 Mar 2024, 5:07 am by Rocky
» A team to prepare the national strategy for national security in Kirkuk
Sun 17 Mar 2024, 5:06 am by Rocky
» Next Tuesday...concluding a contract to expand the basic design of the city of Mosul
Sun 17 Mar 2024, 5:04 am by Rocky
» A festival to reduce food prices in Mosul
Sun 17 Mar 2024, 5:03 am by Rocky
» Technical committees between Baghdad and Erbil to resume oil exports through Türkiye
Sun 17 Mar 2024, 5:02 am by Rocky
» A model of economic diversification
Sun 17 Mar 2024, 5:01 am by Rocky
» Variation in the extent to which Iraq was affected by the decision to reduce the credit rating of {T
Sun 17 Mar 2024, 5:00 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani: Iraq has made a commitment to receive the entire security file from the Ministry of Inter
Sun 17 Mar 2024, 4:58 am by Rocky
» The President of the Republic stresses the important role of Mr. Abdul Aziz Al-Hakim in the first st
Sun 17 Mar 2024, 4:56 am by Rocky
» The Iraqi Center for Combating Rumors warns against social media celebrities misleading their follow
Sun 17 Mar 2024, 4:54 am by Rocky
» Integrity investigates the work of the Housing Fund and indicates debts worth 56 billion dinars
Sun 17 Mar 2024, 4:53 am by Rocky
» Agricultural associations in Karbala welcome the provincial council’s decision to prevent the fragme
Sun 17 Mar 2024, 4:52 am by Rocky
» Free education lecturers demand that they be given job opportunities and contracts in Kirkuk
Sun 17 Mar 2024, 4:51 am by Rocky
» The Digital Media Center calls for not browsing links published on a government page
Sun 17 Mar 2024, 4:50 am by Rocky
» The President of the Republic confirms the strength of relations between Iraq and Italy
Sun 17 Mar 2024, 4:48 am by Rocky
» A decline in Iraq's oil exports to America during the past week
Sun 17 Mar 2024, 4:47 am by Rocky
» Economic researcher for / NINA /: Iraqi youth are qualified for the labor market and relying on them
Sun 17 Mar 2024, 4:46 am by Rocky
» The Minister of Planning is following up on the Statistics Authority’s preparations to conduct the g
Sun 17 Mar 2024, 4:45 am by Rocky
» 5 days after sending the money and the Kurdistan government has not paid the salaries...a political
Sun 17 Mar 2024, 4:44 am by Rocky
» A political reading about Sudanese political concern.. Amending the election law is one of the attem
Sun 17 Mar 2024, 4:42 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani to the Baghdad government: Pay attention to the outskirts of the capital, and drainage mus
Sun 17 Mar 2024, 4:41 am by Rocky
» The Iraqi dinar recovers against the dollar in local markets
Sun 17 Mar 2024, 4:39 am by Rocky
» Investment provides a summary of Bismaya units... and the new cities have “fixed prices” for the fir
Sun 17 Mar 2024, 4:38 am by Rocky
» “Hidden commissions” on electronic fuel cards, contrary to what is advertised.. To whom does 100 mil
Sun 17 Mar 2024, 4:37 am by Rocky
» Al-Hasnawi: The government is continuing to accelerate the completion and opening of lagging health
Sun 17 Mar 2024, 4:36 am by Rocky
» Oil: The gasoline import file will be closed early next year
Sun 17 Mar 2024, 4:35 am by Rocky
» “My account or your account”... a new problem behind the delay in the salaries of the region’s emplo
Sun 17 Mar 2024, 4:34 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani: Iraq is about to host important events and conferences
Sun 17 Mar 2024, 4:33 am by Rocky
» In Erdogan's visit to Iraq...the path of development in exchange for water
Sun 17 Mar 2024, 4:33 am by Rocky
» An American report on Washington’s seriousness in withdrawing from Iraq: Biden does not want to lose
Sun 17 Mar 2024, 4:30 am by Rocky
» The organization is banned in Iraq.. Baghdad decides the fate of the Workers’ Party after 40 years o
Sun 17 Mar 2024, 4:29 am by Rocky
» The rain exposes the poor quality of service projects and calls for the dismissal of officials and h
Sun 17 Mar 2024, 4:28 am by Rocky
» Politician: Ankara needs Baghdad economically, and the path of development is Iraq’s trump card
Sun 17 Mar 2024, 4:26 am by Rocky
» Economic calls to adopt a new philosophy for implementing strategic projects
Sun 17 Mar 2024, 4:24 am by Rocky
» Al-Maliki: My alliance with Al-Sadr is possible, and the movement’s distance from it is an unhealthy
Sun 17 Mar 2024, 4:23 am by Rocky