The main challenges facing OPEC now and in the future
21/4/2018 12:00 am [rtl]Dr. Falah al-Ameri Although the main factors affecting the volatility of oil prices, traditionally, are the fundamentals of the market, which is mainly in supply and demand, but this is not in isolation from other factors that affect the volatility of oil prices, such as the fluctuation of the dollar, economic growth of some important countries or The growth of the global economy, wars, economic embargoes, geopolitics, weather and natural disasters, technological development, growth of renewable energy sources, legislative changes and OPEC reactions to oil price volatility. When the fundamentals of the oil markets affect oil prices negatively, OPEC tries to count One way is to influence the oil markets by narrowing the gap between supply and demand to balance markets and raise oil prices. This is what finally happened when OPEC intervened in 2016 to stop the collapse of oil prices that have reached the brink of collapse. Oil investments It is necessary to emphasize that any initiative or option adopted in the future must be carefully implemented as a tool to achieve stability and transparency in the world oil markets and contribute to the fundamentals of the market such as supply and demand and meet their requirements in a timely manner to avoid crises resulting from a sudden imbalance in the fundamentals of the market Or other secondary factors such as geopolitical factors, or imbalance in oil investments - whether huge sums leading to huge oil production causing the dumping of the market or a few investments leading to a deficit in the quantities produced from oil. As well as follow up the effects of the environment and technological development and take the necessary measures to cope with them and mitigate their effects. Cartel monopoly Any alternative organization should include among its goals and mechanisms the removal of the justifications that make the United States and the rest of Europe to call it the monopoly cartel by taking advantage of the mechanisms and objectives of energy organizations, centers and institutes. The Organization should ask its members to provide reasonable spare capacity for member states to use as a stabilizing factor and to balance the oil markets in a timely manner and to prepare the mechanisms required to increase their share in the world oil markets. They can also set up a permanent energy committee that meets periodically to engage in dialogue to establish long-term policies and strategies to maintain a sustainable and sustainable role for fossil fuels, especially oil and gas, while developing the role of renewable energy sources and improving their efficiency and technology. Therefore, these countries can begin to control the balance between trying to raise the price of oil to finance public budgets and the management of natural resources through the diversification of the economy on the one hand and the diversity of energy sources on the other. Major challenges Although there are many challenges, we will note here the most important challenges facing OPEC from our point of view, rock oil, developments and environmental changes, and renewable energy. Where these challenges are one of the most reasons that lead to volatility in the oil markets and puts the Organization either huge commitments to search for new ideas dealing with these variables and challenges. 1 - American rock oil The phenomenon of growth in the production of shale oil and the continued decline in production costs of the challenges that concern OPEC and for a period of time is not short, the available indicators confirm the continued growth of oil production rock and compete with the traditional oil produced by OPEC countries and thus gradually reduce the share of the Organization in the world oil markets. This will certainly increase the pressure on the Organization and other producing countries to cooperate with it for the purpose of reconsidering its policy, especially the re-evaluation of the role of the Organization as a complementary product, which results in favor of non-OPEC producing countries in general and helps in the growth of oil production in particular. It is important to mention here the importance of the growth of oil and shale gas production to contribute to realizing the dream of the United States of America to achieve self-sufficiency of various types of energy sources produced in addition to the growth of export volumes of liquefied natural gas and US light oil to compete with other oil and gas producers and lead to growth The United States' share of world markets at the expense of other producing countries. Which has effectively changed the structure of global oil and gas markets, so it must be emphasized that oil and shale gas has become a worrying challenge for the rest of the world's oil and gas producers OPEC countries. 2. Environmental challenge Environmental and legislative measures have become an important and sustainable role in the negative impact on oil demand. The change in weather conditions and the resulting devastating storms in the al-Barabalh continuously affect the oil establishment, which leads to higher oil prices. On the other hand, environmental measures and legislation and innovative technologies reduce the demand for oil production in the foreseeable future. Although some political differences between countries on legislatures such as the contradictory positions of the COP24 or COP23 countries in delaying or mitigating the impact of such legislation, they do not reduce their impact on the demand for fossil fuels and their continuation as a major challenge to oil producers, especially OPEC. 3. Renewable energy sources Renewable energy sources are growing rapidly and are beginning to bring the attention of energy professionals to their rapid growth and their increasing role in reducing fossil energy dominance by increasing their share of other energy sources. Therefore, the world's energy markets are currently in transition for renewable energy sources, with some innovative environmental and economic advantages, efficiency, low cost, demand growth and environmental friendliness. For example, increasing demand for electric cars will gradually contribute to lower demand for oil although demand for automotive fuels accounts for about 20% of the world's total oil demand. Another challenge for fossil fuels is the emergence of solar energy, which has begun to expand significantly recently as more investments are invested in solar projects as well as technological advances that will contribute to the production of solar energy at a lower cost and make it more profitable. The same applies to the energy produced by wind and nuclear energy and may lead in the future to the emergence of new types of renewable energies as a result of scientific and technological development, such as the use of gravity for the purposes of electricity production. If successful, could be seen as a new industrial development that poses a major challenge to fossil fuel producers. It is expected that the world oil companies most affected by the transition from fossil energy to renewable energy in the event that they do not diversify the sources of energy they produce so as not to be outside the game and the value of their assets and oil facilities in the future and thus lose hundreds of billions of dollars that will invest in the coming period and exaggerate some Experts say when he says the day may come when these assets are dead assets. For some time, international oil companies and some OPEC member companies have begun to start diversifying energy production and adding renewable energy production to their promising future activities in response to technological development and environmental requirements. In the last 10 years, the major players in the energy industry have been increasing investments in the production of electric cars and the required infrastructure and working on plans to increase the production of this type of cars to reduce dependence on petroleum products. This also applies to the growth of huge investments in solar projects, For example, the project of solar energy in the desert of Morocco, as well as the joint venture between Saudi Arabia and Japan's giant telecommunications company Softbank, to establish the largest integrated solar power project in the world, which is expected to M investment of about 200 billion Dolarlanteg nearly 200 Gigawatt by 2030. Finally, the supporters of renewable energy projects have succeeded in convincing the international community and the energy market to move from fossil energy to the renewable energy era. However, renewable energy sources still account for less than 10% of total global energy production, but there are expectations that Competition may become severe among energy sources and the result may be at the expense of the future of oil in the next two decades. Renewable energy has become an important challenge for OPEC and its new partners in the long term.[/rtl] [rtl]http://www.alsabaah.iq/ArticleShow.aspx?ID=155791 [/rtl] |
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