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Analysis: Iraq may withdraw from OPEC after Qatar


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Analysis: Iraq may withdraw from OPEC after Qatar Empty Analysis: Iraq may withdraw from OPEC after Qatar

Post by rocky on Wed 05 Dec 2018, 6:58 am

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Analysis: Iraq may withdraw from OPEC after Qatar
Journal News - Translation: Hala Ahmed , 
a senior analyst in the field of energy believed that Iraq could be the next country to withdraw from OPEC. Qatar has announced that it will withdraw from the organization.
According to an analytical report on the CNBC website and translated by The Journal News, Iraq achieved a record after producing about 4.76 million barrels per day in October, and compliance with OPEC has become a question amid a conflict of interest regarding the reduction of oil production and the announcement of the sudden withdrawal of Qatar .
While the departure of the small Gulf kingdom is largely symbolic and unlikely to lead to further withdrawals, a senior energy analyst believes that if a country were to withdraw, it would be Iraq.
"For me, I think that among all OPEC countries that have emerged in the past six or eight months is Iraq," Michael Cohen, head of energy markets research at Barclays Bank, told the Sequoiac Box Europe.
"Iraq has not been successful in achieving its desired rate of oil exports frequently," he said. "So if the restrictions on production cuts are too strict, Iraq may feel it is in his interest not to remain a member of the organization."
As Iraq, OPEC's second-largest oil producer with 15 members, still suffering from poor infrastructure and poverty after years of war and sanctions, Iraq has an incentive to keep its taps running. According to the International Energy Agency, more than 90 percent of Iraqi government revenues come from oil.
Referring to Iraq, Cohen referred to the visits of Saudi Oil Minister Khalid al-Falih to Baghdad over the past two months, although he admitted that he did not know the content of the officials' talks, which were not all announced. 
"We are not aware of the nature of these talks, but obviously there is a lot of concern about keeping Iraq on what it says," Cohen said.
According to media reports, al-Faleh met with his Iraqi counterparts and Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi to discuss increased cooperation in energy and electricity. The United States has been encouraging Saudi investment in Iraq's reconstruction as a measure to counter Iran's influence.
Iraq enjoys record production 
The Iraqi oil sector has undergone one of the most successful transformations of any sector after the US invasion in 2003 that toppled Saddam Hussein. The country was pumping a record 4.76 million bpd in October, according to the former oil minister. His growing production, as well as the high production of several years of Libya, contributed to the rise in global production this fall.
The Saudis have mobilized support to cut oil production amid a global supply crisis that saw oil prices fall by 25% from their peak in early October. But the JMCC meeting between non-Opec members and non-OPEC members held in mid-November in Abu Dhabi was unable to adhere to the agreed course of action.
"The Libyan, Iraqi and Venezuelan production is surprisingly bullish, but it has made the outlook and the economic outlook worse," Barclays wrote in an oil market report earlier this month. "Saudi pressure to keep Iraqi production in line did not begin until Faleh's recent visit to Baghdad.Therefore, OPEC can not yet answer the sustainability of these trends. " 
Russian President Vladimir Putin said leaders of the world's top two oil exporters, Saudi Arabia and Russia, agreed last weekend to "extend an agreement" to curb production and support oil prices. Expectations are high because the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-Opec members will coordinate a cut in supply when it meets in Vienna, Austria, later this week.
Against the backdrop of these expectations and initial hopes to deflate the trade relations between the United States and China, which has reduced oil prices some of its recent losses.
Iraqi officials estimate they need $ 100 billion to fund rebuilding homes and infrastructure in parts of the country devastated by a three-year campaign against the Islamic state that ended late last year. In the midst of pockets of persistent resistance to stagnation and government corruption, the inevitability of diversification of income sources remains daunting. Oil will remain critical to the reconstruction of the country.
Thamer Ghadhban, Iraq's newly appointed oil minister, told the media in late October that pumping more oil was a top priority for a country of 38 million people. The targets are not only short-term, as Basra National Oil Company plans to increase production from 3.2 million bpd to 5 million bpd in the next seven years.

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