[size=32]
expectations of "Stratfor" for 2019 reveals in detail what will "happen" to Iran, Ben Salman and Turkey[/size]
Twilight News
Friday, 14 December 2018
expectations of "Stratfor" for 2019 reveals in detail what will "happen" to Iran, Ben Salman and Turkey[/size]
Twilight News
Friday, 14 December 2018
Twilight News / website published the American "Stratfor" Institute report, presents its forecast for the year 2019.
The institute said that 2019 will see a confrontation between the United States and China in terms of imposing sanctions and tax tariffs on Chinese goods, the largest and support for Taiwan, a strong presence in the South China Sea.
The institute said that 2019 will see a confrontation between the United States and China in terms of imposing sanctions and tax tariffs on Chinese goods, the largest and support for Taiwan, a strong presence in the South China Sea.
The report, translated by "Arab21", indicates that the same will be achieved by arms control treaties, as the year will see competition between the United States on the one hand and China and Russia on the other, while the border countries such as Poland and Taiwan may benefit, Which are trying to maintain neutrality, such as Turkey, India and Vietnam, will live a headache.
The site is likely to witness trade risks, especially in the United States' attempts to pressure Europe, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and Australia to build big barriers to Chinese investment. He said the year will see attempts to solve trade problems in a bilateral way after US attempts to disrupt the work of the WTO Global.
The report notes that Mexico, Canada, Japan and North Korea have a better chance of success than US negotiations with the European Union, which is doomed to failure.
Although the US has increased tariffs on China, the final impact on global trade in America will not be significant, he said, pointing to Italy's populist threat to the euro area, as well as the US campaign against Iran.
The report finds that with secondary sanctions ready to be activated, Washington will try to isolate the region and weaken it internally, thus reducing any hope for possible talks between them, pointing out that these policies will protect Saudi Arabia and America's allies, despite Western resentment of the involvement of the Saudi Crown Prince The murder of Jamal Khashoggi.
The site shows that for the energy market, Saudi Arabia and Russia will try to manage the oil market so as not to decrease its prices, while watching the remaining of Iran's production and export capabilities, there is a possibility to increase the production of Iraqi and Libyan oil, noting that for the LNG market, the market will vibrate with The United States enters it in 2019, being one of the largest exporters of natural gas.
The report notes that policies in Latin America will be affected by the attempts of the right-wing Brazilian government to contain the crises coming from Venezuela with Colombia. In the Horn of Africa, Ethiopia will be driving change, by attracting foreign investment, but internal challenges and ethnic conflicts may be a challenge to the agenda Which the Government seeks.
As the conflict with the superpowers, China, Russia and the United States, increases, the recent attempts to isolate China will seem limited in 2019. The growing development of the framing and the deterioration of international treaties will lead to an arms race between America, China and Russia.
Iran
It is likely that "US sanctions on Iran will not succeed in leading to the collapse of the regime, although it will weaken it. Despite the political rivalry between the ruling parties, it is usually united to maintain the stability of the regime. Reformist movement represented by President Hassan Rowhani. "
The website stresses that Donald Trump's attempts to increase sanctions on Iran are a means of returning them to the negotiating table, and satisfaction with what America wants will not succeed, pointing out that the security establishment will find the justification for deepening the Iranian defense strategy to face intense pressure.
"Tehran will try to take revenge in a way that does not lead to a conventional war. It may try to retaliate by harassing the ships of US allies in the Gulf region, testing ballistic missiles, resuming its nuclear tests when necessary, Or to activate its agents in the region and respond to the United States, Israel and the Gulf states, but wants to avoid military attacks against it, and with the decline of European support in 2019, and turning it into mere words, Iran will be ready for reprisals without leading to a conventional war.
"The United States is strengthening its regional allies through a strategy of weakening Iran, while Washington will rely on two groups of allies whose goals are consistent with it. The first group includes allies worried about Iran and willing to embrace the full US policies - Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Israel , These countries have gone through decades of mistrust, coordinate together in e-warfare, blockade and even military cooperation. The second group of allies includes Qatar, Oman and Kuwait, which in a certain way align themselves with US policy objectives But they are less willing to take radical positions, such as the first group, but it gives the United States diplomatic assistance strategy and economic value to other conflicts in the region, and strengthen alignment between them may ease Kthaqh blockade of Qatar, but the differences that exist between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) will continue. "
Saudi
The report says that "Saudi Arabia has to deal with the growing concerns of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and throughout the next year, following the death of exiled journalist Jamal Khashoggi, the actions of the Crown Prince will be the subject of international scrutiny, and although his position is strong within Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabia depends necessarily on the support of his father, King Salman, and there will remain quiet resistance within the royal family accumulate, and some of Riyadh's major allies will reduce their military support and foreign direct investment. However, vital relations will not change. Throughout 2019 ".
"Riyadh will continue to pursue the goals of Vision 2030 next year and will reduce the austerity measures based on good economic changes, such as high oil prices and the attempt to benefit from the decline in Iranian oil exports and the non-oil sector revenues. Employment, and the state will have to use its money-filled portfolio to ease complaints about lack of housing, low salaries and standard of living. "
Syria
The Stratfor Institute predicts that the Syrian conflict, which has recently entered its final stages, will end. In the Syrian civil war, five forces - Turkey, Russia, the United States, Iran and Israel - are struggling. Moscow and Tehran support the regime of Bashar Assad in Damascus and do not differ in their level of support for the regime. But Russia has used the Syrian conflict as a starting point to expand its influence in the region. It wants to preserve what it has achieved, and does not want to open a confrontation with any of the conflicting powers, whether the United States, Israel or Turkey.
Iran is seeking to provide broader support to Damascus, especially against Ankara and Washington, pointing out that Tehran will continue to build its forces inside Syria; a deterrent force against Israel and a means of providing equipment to Hezbollah in Lebanon, while Israel will thwart plans Iran, but is afraid of igniting an unintended war with Russia.
According to the report, Turkey and the United States remain consistent with their opposition to the Assad regime, but each is pursuing a different agenda, even though they are active NATO states.
The site points out that the United States is focused on destroying the remnants of state organization in Syria, pointing out that although it is trying to isolate Iran and limit its influence in Syria, but its defiance of Tehran there may have created tension with Russia, which can not and will not force Iran to Leave Syria.
Despite the attempts to avoid a clash in Syrian airspace, the possibility of unintentional conflict between US and Russian stocks remains, and thus the chances of confrontation between the major powers participating in the Syrian conflict remain 2019.
Turkey
It is likely that Turkey will continue to focus on Kurdish forces in Syria, which is a problem for the United States, which uses Syria's democratic forces controlled by the Kurdish People's Protection Forces, which Turkey views as terrorist forces, such as a force against state organization and proxy forces against Iran.
The report shows that Turkey may face a crisis in the north-west, especially after its commitment to protect Idlib, which the regime is trying to restore. Thus, the province, the last stronghold of the Syrian opposition, may become a point of tension in 2019, pointing out that the confrontation will be between groups Pro-Iranian and those supported by Turkey and Russia, and may have turned into a state-level dispute against others.
Turkey's biggest challenge remains to tackle its fragile economy in 2019 and address the high level of inflation, while Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan may find himself forced to accept a debt bill equivalent to a quarter of GDP while avoiding a new lira crisis.
According to the report, Erdogan will try to expand his popular base before the local elections in the spring, and draws close to the Turks worried about the economic situation of the entire spectrum of the election, noting that what has weakened Turkey's economic relations with the West, while the relationship with the United States of volatility; Ankara's relations with Moscow, and Washington's support for the people's protection forces.
The website says Erdogan will try to focus on the stability of the economy. As Turkey is under pressure from America, it will try to attract investment and maintain stable economic relations with Europe.
Stratfor concludes his report by pointing out that in addition to achieving economic stability, Ankara will continue to achieve its other goals in terms of influencing northwest Syria, containing the Kurdish enclave in northeastern Syria, and striking PKK units in northern Iraq.
Yesterday at 7:52 am by Rocky
» utube 3/28/24 MM&C Iraqi Dinar - IQD Update - SWIFT - Purchasing Power - Urban Renaissance - Releas
Yesterday at 7:51 am by Rocky
» Al-Mandalawi: Iraq is witnessing competition between major companies...and the House of Representati
Yesterday at 7:49 am by Rocky
» The President of the Republic stresses the importance of the role of programmers in developing the w
Yesterday at 7:46 am by Rocky
» The Minister of Industry and Minerals follows up on the technical and production performance of the
Yesterday at 7:45 am by Rocky
» The Minister of Finance is following up on the field the progress of the newly implemented ASYCUDA s
Yesterday at 7:44 am by Rocky
» Statistics: There are more than 15 million bank accounts in Iraq
Yesterday at 7:42 am by Rocky
» Representative: One paragraph hinders the passage of a general amnesty within the House of Represent
Yesterday at 7:37 am by Rocky
» Parliamentary Finance: “The draft federal budget law will be devoid of new job grades.”
Yesterday at 7:36 am by Rocky
» Parliamentary action to resolve the fate of “food security contracts” in 15 governorates
Yesterday at 7:35 am by Rocky
» 300 factories turned into "iron scrap" in Diyala
Yesterday at 7:34 am by Rocky
» A deputy expects the dollar exchange rate to reach 140 Iraqi dinars
Yesterday at 7:32 am by Rocky
» Al-Yasiri: The American administration is working hard to destroy the Iraqi economy
Yesterday at 7:31 am by Rocky
» Infographic: The highest annual salaries of leaders of Arab countries
Yesterday at 7:30 am by Rocky
» Communications announces that the electronic signature project has reached advanced stages
Yesterday at 7:29 am by Rocky
» Parliamentary Integrity presents a file related to Kuwaiti violations of Iraqi oil
Yesterday at 7:27 am by Rocky
» Parliamentary move to include amendments to Parliament’s internal regulations on the agenda (documen
Yesterday at 7:25 am by Rocky
» The Iraqi President urges the Minister of Finance to expedite the payment of salaries to the Kurdist
Yesterday at 7:23 am by Rocky
» Central Bank of Iraq sales exceeded $251 million at today’s auction
Yesterday at 7:21 am by Rocky
» The Foreign Minister questions the "Iraqi resistance" attacks against Israel: the other side did not
Yesterday at 7:20 am by Rocky
» The Minister of Labor announces progress in the electronic payment system
Yesterday at 7:17 am by Rocky
» Interior Ministry: For the first time, we controlled the smuggling of petroleum derivatives by 98 pe
Yesterday at 7:16 am by Rocky
» International companies offer offers to invest in the Dhi Qar marshes.. What distinguishes them?
Yesterday at 7:15 am by Rocky
» “Tough” comments on interest rates raise the dollar globally
Yesterday at 7:14 am by Rocky
» Iraq is the fifth largest oil supplier to South Korea in a month
Yesterday at 7:12 am by Rocky
» Recovering more than 100 billion as a result of more than 200,000 employees on social welfare
Yesterday at 7:11 am by Rocky
» The Sudanese consultant announces the completion of Baghdad Metro track designs
Yesterday at 7:08 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani stresses ending the problem of triple-shift schools
Yesterday at 7:07 am by Rocky
» Iraq begins building two new tankers to transport petroleum products
Yesterday at 7:06 am by Rocky
» Forming a council for “competition and preventing monopoly”
Yesterday at 7:04 am by Rocky
» Features of an Iraqi-Turkish agreement regarding the status of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party
Yesterday at 7:02 am by Rocky
» {Al-Buzrajiya} between the hammer of fraud and the power of the owners
Yesterday at 7:01 am by Rocky
» Ministry of Oil: The gas sector is witnessing great development
Yesterday at 6:59 am by Rocky
» An agreement with Britain in the field of securities
Yesterday at 6:58 am by Rocky
» Discussions between Baghdad and Ankara to open a new port
Yesterday at 6:57 am by Rocky
» Trade: About 11 million citizens updated their new card information
Yesterday at 6:56 am by Rocky
» Electronic payment is sustainable growth
Yesterday at 6:55 am by Rocky
» Experts: Iraq qualifies to be an important tourist country
Yesterday at 6:54 am by Rocky
» Amending the Health Professions Law “robs” scientists of the central appointment 3 years after it wa
Yesterday at 5:20 am by Rocky
» Is the “blessings package” that Erbil paid to the citizens of Kurdistan related to the elections?
Yesterday at 5:19 am by Rocky
» Exceeded 5,000 projects.. Allocating 10 trillion dinars to support governorate reconstruction plans
Yesterday at 5:18 am by Rocky
» “His need no longer exists.” Parliamentary Finance confirms the necessity of returning the retiremen
Yesterday at 5:17 am by Rocky
» To communicate with the bases... 12 directives from Al-Sadr, including blocking numbers for non-gove
Yesterday at 5:15 am by Rocky
» In an interview with "Baghdad Today"... an Iranian researcher reveals the importance of Haniyeh's vi
Yesterday at 5:14 am by Rocky
» After it was 63 trillion in 2023... the 2024 budget deficit will rise to 80 trillion dinars
Yesterday at 5:13 am by Rocky
» Parliament reveals the date of the first evaluation of the governors and determines the party respon
Yesterday at 5:11 am by Rocky
» The President of the Republic informs Al-Araji and Al-Basri: Momentum must be mobilized to eliminate
Yesterday at 5:10 am by Rocky
» Can the Federal Court sue others? A legal clarification of its response mechanism to abuse
Yesterday at 5:09 am by Rocky
» Despite promises to soon stop burning gas.. What is the secret behind Iraq renewing the Iranian gas
Yesterday at 5:07 am by Rocky
» Advisor to Al-Sudani: The dollar is on the way to further decline, and 70% of Iraqi traders have ent
Yesterday at 5:06 am by Rocky
» Iraq exported more than 99 million barrels of oil last February
Yesterday at 5:04 am by Rocky
» Barzani “gives good news” to Kurdistan employees: salaries, land, and loan exemptions
Yesterday at 5:03 am by Rocky
» Alia Nassif: Nour Zuhair returned to the port of Umm Qasr to make deals.. An influential Shiite forc
Yesterday at 5:02 am by Rocky
» The Prime Minister announces the movement of nearly 500 stalled projects
Yesterday at 5:00 am by Rocky
» A government strategy to enhance investments.. Iraq is on the verge of a new era of economic develop
Yesterday at 4:59 am by Rocky
» Ranging between 20% and 50%.. The Kurdistan government decides to reduce service fees, customs dutie
Yesterday at 4:58 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani: The reform approach in the security services is an integral part of reform in other secto
Yesterday at 4:56 am by Rocky
» Everyone in Iraq wants the Sudanese visit to Washington to be successful, even the factions!
Yesterday at 4:55 am by Rocky
» Sources and experts expect the agenda.. in his bag is the Baghdad dollar and the factions’ truce, bu
Yesterday at 4:54 am by Rocky
» The decision to raise gasoline prices arouses the ire of drivers...a reminder of the large demonstra
Yesterday at 4:53 am by Rocky
» Parliamentary services: 3 important hospitals in Baghdad will enter service at the end of the year
Yesterday at 4:52 am by Rocky
» Iraq signs a contract to supply Iranian gas for a period of five years
Yesterday at 4:50 am by Rocky
» Parliament adds a voting paragraph on amending the Penal Code to its agenda
Yesterday at 4:49 am by Rocky
» His political advisor: We are not afraid of Sudanese entering the elections alone
Yesterday at 4:48 am by Rocky
» Parliamentary services explain the reasons for the rise in real estate prices in Baghdad
Yesterday at 4:46 am by Rocky
» Attia, criticizing the government's decisions: "The citizen's feathers will be ruffled without servi
Yesterday at 4:45 am by Rocky
» Parliamentary Communications: Zain Iraq and Asiacell did not pay their debts
Yesterday at 4:44 am by Rocky
» The Governor of Karbala announces the imminent establishment of the largest industrial city in the c
Yesterday at 4:43 am by Rocky
» A government determination to end the issue of displaced persons in the middle of this year
Yesterday at 4:42 am by Rocky
» Iraq buys gas from Kurdistan to generate electricity
Yesterday at 4:41 am by Rocky
» Parliamentary signatures to include an amendment to the internal regulations to decide the choice of
Yesterday at 4:40 am by Rocky
» In Basra.. a demonstration against foreign workers in Iraqi companies (video)
Yesterday at 4:38 am by Rocky
» Al-Samarrai: Presidency of Parliament is an entitlement to the constituents, and calling it a “frame
Yesterday at 4:36 am by Rocky
» Electronic food supplies in 6 governorates... covering 11 million Iraqis and “writing off” about 700
Yesterday at 4:34 am by Rocky
» Corruption of the Ministry of Transport.. Representatives express their surprise at the minister’s s
Yesterday at 4:32 am by Rocky
» The biggest supporter of the invasion of Iraq.. The death of former US Senator Joe Lieberman
Yesterday at 4:31 am by Rocky
» Iraq is ranked “late.” A list of the most and least safe Arab countries for women
Yesterday at 4:30 am by Rocky
» The Council of Ministers exempts the Gulf Interconnection Authority from guarantee fees: it is a gov
Wed 27 Mar 2024, 7:48 am by Rocky
» The Iraqi government raises the size of the 2024 budget, and Parliament is “surprised”
Wed 27 Mar 2024, 7:46 am by Rocky
» Popular Movement: We have many economic options away from American hegemony
Wed 27 Mar 2024, 7:42 am by Rocky
» The Oil Parliament stresses the need to transfer part of the revenues to the producing governorates
Wed 27 Mar 2024, 7:41 am by Rocky
» It will cover 14 regions in eastern Iraq.. A deputy reveals the “border electricity” project
Wed 27 Mar 2024, 7:40 am by Rocky
» Experts Warn Mass Migration Threatens US Food Security
Wed 27 Mar 2024, 7:37 am by Bama Diva
» Al-Fateh: America occupies Iraq through agreements
Wed 27 Mar 2024, 7:37 am by Rocky
» Anger in Iraq over a "sudden decision"... and a reminder of a "general strike" that paralyzed the co
Wed 27 Mar 2024, 7:34 am by Rocky
» Parliamentary Committee: Parliament is discussing today a decision that “disturbed” the Iraqis
Wed 27 Mar 2024, 7:33 am by Rocky
» Ministry of Electricity: Our production will reach 27 thousand megawatts by May
Wed 27 Mar 2024, 7:31 am by Rocky
» Diagnosing the “most important” problems in the oil file between Baghdad and Erbil.. What is the rel
Wed 27 Mar 2024, 7:30 am by Rocky
» The Iraqi Fiqh Academy and the Sunni Endowment issue a fatwa to pay Zakat al-Fitr
Wed 27 Mar 2024, 7:28 am by Rocky
» The National Bank of Iraq continues its digital transformation by launching its new banking system a
Wed 27 Mar 2024, 7:26 am by Rocky
» Parliamentary Investment and the Central Bank are discussing the housing initiative
Wed 27 Mar 2024, 7:25 am by Rocky
» The Prime Minister announces the restart of 500 suspended projects
Wed 27 Mar 2024, 7:23 am by Rocky
» Al-Barti assesses the region's employees: Your salaries are insured and will be paid after resettlem
Wed 27 Mar 2024, 7:21 am by Rocky
» Iraqi-American discussions in anticipation of the Sudanese visit
Wed 27 Mar 2024, 7:20 am by Rocky
» Iraq and Turkey hold meetings in Ankara to discuss technical issues related to the development road
Wed 27 Mar 2024, 7:17 am by Rocky
» A government parliamentary agreement to support budget revenues and governorate allocations for inve
Wed 27 Mar 2024, 7:16 am by Rocky
» Oil: The gas sector is witnessing great development
Wed 27 Mar 2024, 7:15 am by Rocky
» A Kurdish-French agreement to develop trade and economic relations
Wed 27 Mar 2024, 7:13 am by Rocky
» Exchange companies in Mosul demand that they be entered into the currency selling window
Wed 27 Mar 2024, 7:12 am by Rocky