[size=32]Iran: Moving from a waiting strategy to gradual escalation
- Two Days Ago
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Dr.. Salim Mohammed Al-Zanoun.
In less than a month, four attacks on oil interests in the Arabian Gulf were targeted. In mid-May, four oil tankers were targeted off the coast of the UAE, coinciding with an attack on two oil pumping stations in Saudi Arabia and a rocket that landed near the US Embassy in Baghdad, Yesterday, the Houthis targeted the Abha airport in Saudi Arabia with a cruise missile. This morning, an oil tanker was targeted in the Gulf of Oman, most likely by pro-Iranian militias.
This indicates that Iran has changed the rules of the game. The severity of the American sanctions that are crushing the Iranian economy is pushing Tehran to work and pressure to force Washington to retreat without igniting the war and entering a military battle that results in zero for it.
The essence of the change is based on the transition from a waiting strategy to a gradual escalation strategy.
First: the waiting strategy.
Since the beginning of the tension between Washington and Tehran, and even after the oil sanctions entered into full force, Tehran preferred the strategy of waiting, reducing sanctions and absorbing shocks, until the expiration of Trump's mandate, and the advent of a new administration in the 2020 elections will be more flexible. The oil exemptions for a group of countries and allow it to continue to buy Iranian oil, but failed to bet on both workers, and the Iranian economy entered the stage of collapse, at a time when the legitimacy of the regime is declining internally, with the spread of mass protests.
Second: the gradual escalation strategy.
Has become the cost of very large Iranian losses, to the point of no longer bear the continued work in accordance with the waiting strategy, including paid to change course by moving to a strategy of escalation slow, with a view to pushing Washington to ease sanctions by targeting its allies, this strategy is based on three stages of moving between them gradually: the
first stage: The threat of returning to reactivate the nuclear program and accelerate the pace of enrichment.
Phase II: Using its arms deployed in the Middle East to launch asymmetric attacks is difficult to attribute directly to it as a state, targeting Washington's allies, specifically oil interests, to create a shock in the global spot market.
Phase III, if there is no breakthrough with Washington, will launch attacks targeting US interests in the region (staff, military bases, embassies).
Tehran's start to work on a gradual escalation strategy means that Washington's deterrent strategy over the past months is no longer feasible. In this context, Washington is likely to take new measures, other than economic sanctions, designed to contain escalation and non-
incursion into the war: To Iran, military and civilian.
2. Secret operations targeting the Revolutionary Guard and carrying out limited air and missile strikes on its military assets.
3. To carry out operations aimed at Iran's active arms and likely to act to carry out attacks.
4. A limited siege aimed at pressuring Iran's soft power elements, consisting of 4 main elements, all operating in the framework of soft war: the first is the radio of the Islamic Republic of Iran, which is spread throughout the world, the second is the Organization of Islamic Culture and Islamic Relations, Official, third Mustafa International University as a soft war arm and has 60 branches worldwide, the fourth international charities spread.
This type of attack is not expected to lead to a large-scale war, for two reasons.
First, the historical experience indicates that Israel has repeatedly hit Iran in Syria without a war.
Second, the Iranian regime has no interest in entering into a war with Washington in light of the imbalance of power.
[size]In less than a month, four attacks on oil interests in the Arabian Gulf were targeted. In mid-May, four oil tankers were targeted off the coast of the UAE, coinciding with an attack on two oil pumping stations in Saudi Arabia and a rocket that landed near the US Embassy in Baghdad, Yesterday, the Houthis targeted the Abha airport in Saudi Arabia with a cruise missile. This morning, an oil tanker was targeted in the Gulf of Oman, most likely by pro-Iranian militias.
This indicates that Iran has changed the rules of the game. The severity of the American sanctions that are crushing the Iranian economy is pushing Tehran to work and pressure to force Washington to retreat without igniting the war and entering a military battle that results in zero for it.
The essence of the change is based on the transition from a waiting strategy to a gradual escalation strategy.
First: the waiting strategy.
Since the beginning of the tension between Washington and Tehran, and even after the oil sanctions entered into full force, Tehran preferred the strategy of waiting, reducing sanctions and absorbing shocks, until the expiration of Trump's mandate, and the advent of a new administration in the 2020 elections will be more flexible. The oil exemptions for a group of countries and allow it to continue to buy Iranian oil, but failed to bet on both workers, and the Iranian economy entered the stage of collapse, at a time when the legitimacy of the regime is declining internally, with the spread of mass protests.
Second: the gradual escalation strategy.
Has become the cost of very large Iranian losses, to the point of no longer bear the continued work in accordance with the waiting strategy, including paid to change course by moving to a strategy of escalation slow, with a view to pushing Washington to ease sanctions by targeting its allies, this strategy is based on three stages of moving between them gradually: the
first stage: The threat of returning to reactivate the nuclear program and accelerate the pace of enrichment.
Phase II: Using its arms deployed in the Middle East to launch asymmetric attacks is difficult to attribute directly to it as a state, targeting Washington's allies, specifically oil interests, to create a shock in the global spot market.
Phase III, if there is no breakthrough with Washington, will launch attacks targeting US interests in the region (staff, military bases, embassies).
Tehran's start to work on a gradual escalation strategy means that Washington's deterrent strategy over the past months is no longer feasible. In this context, Washington is likely to take new measures, other than economic sanctions, designed to contain escalation and non-
incursion into the war: To Iran, military and civilian.
2. Secret operations targeting the Revolutionary Guard and carrying out limited air and missile strikes on its military assets.
3. To carry out operations aimed at Iran's active arms and likely to act to carry out attacks.
4. A limited siege aimed at pressuring Iran's soft power elements, consisting of 4 main elements, all operating in the framework of soft war: the first is the radio of the Islamic Republic of Iran, which is spread throughout the world, the second is the Organization of Islamic Culture and Islamic Relations, Official, third Mustafa International University as a soft war arm and has 60 branches worldwide, the fourth international charities spread.
This type of attack is not expected to lead to a large-scale war, for two reasons.
First, the historical experience indicates that Israel has repeatedly hit Iran in Syria without a war.
Second, the Iranian regime has no interest in entering into a war with Washington in light of the imbalance of power.
Center for Research and Strategic Studies
http://rawabetcenter.com/archives/90669
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