[size=32]Britain and Iran ... prospects for the coming confrontation- 1 Hour Ago
The incident of the kidnapping of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, a British tanker in the Gulf region, has raised serious questions among observers and analysts about the renewed British policy towards Tehran.
It is clear at least in Washington that London has been under internal and external pressure since the ship crisis broke out, to adjust its policy toward Tehran, especially after the escalating confrontation between America and the Arab alliance on the one hand and Iran and its groups on the other.
It should be noted that the administration of US President Donald Trump has made great efforts to change the US policy that former President Barack Obama had followed on Iran. As everyone knows, the big change began with Trump's visit to the Saudi capital and his meeting with Arab leaders and his focus on the need to isolate Iran and its groups Such as Hezbollah. In particular, the US administration completed the process of change by withdrawing from the nuclear agreement, including the Revolutionary Guard on the list of terrorism, imposing unprecedented sanctions targeting the entire economic system, and pushing up major military reinforcements to the Gulf.
In keeping with the American measures, Britain has continued its policy since the days of Obama, committed itself to the nuclear agreement, did not comply with American change, and wanted to maintain its EU in coordination with Germany and France to stay within the nuclear agreement with Tehran. But the Trump administration did not survive and pressed the British government diplomatically and rhetorically During the transitional period, especially on conservative candidates for prime minister, such as Minister Boris Johnson to work to change Britain's policy towards Iran.
In the aftermath of the US withdrawal from the nuclear agreement, observers in Washington were convinced that British institutions would delay the change in London's policy toward Tehran in terms of the US position due to the weight of the Iranian lobby in Britain, financial investments and corporate interests. Represented in Qatar, which worked to push for the continuation of British politics within the nuclear agreement, taking advantage of its center and its huge investments in the capital London, which was surprising for the administration in Washington.
The transition of the government, and recent events are affecting the position of London, the incident of Gibraltar and then piracy of the vessel that was carrying the British flag, and to show Iran as if the break of London through the broadcast propaganda images of landing and control, factors contributed to the mobilization of British policy makers and put enormous pressure on the government Coming.
Tehran is monitoring US ships in return for plans to protect international shipping across the Strait of Hormuz
. Britain will therefore respond to the Iranian challenge from two positions. First, Tehran's threat of defensive action, including the deployment of naval parts to the US fleet; Attacks because that will require a harsh response from the Europeans.
On the ground, London has been forced to change its attitude and approach the US security posture at the very least to deter Iranian practices without leading to an open military confrontation. But this change will in turn prompt Iran to take an aggressive stance. America and the Gulf states, will spur Iran to escalate against British interests, especially if it continues its intransigence and refuses to enter into negotiations for a new settlement.
It is certain that the transitional government will re-calculate the overall price of continuing the nuclear agreement with Iran, and this will have an impact on public opinion at home, especially as Britain seems to have been weakened by the regime of Ayatollah.
Given the sequence of events between Tehran and London, the Iranian leadership is in the process of establishing a strategic balance by displaying muscles in the Gulf. This will have a negative impact on the British deployment in the Gulf. Britain is now in the middle of the road with two choices: either joining America to isolate the regime, Or commitment to nuclear agreement.
The British commitment to the nuclear agreement remains subject to vibration in the event of any Iranian breach of the red lines, or the emergence of an assessment that highlights Iran's future and the post-weakening stage of the current regime.