Yuan's SDR inclusion could do harm to China
For the yuan to be accepted as a reserve currency, the country will lose export competitiveness and risk falling into deflation as unit strengthens
Beijing may be pressing for the yuan to be included in the special drawing rights, the International Monetary Fund's unit of account, but that would also trigger major demand for the currency that could have adverse impact on China's other economic interests.
The country's export competitiveness would be eroded if the yuan was to appreciate anew against the currencies of other major economies. This could be particularly problematic when ultra-accommodative monetary policy elsewhere, such as in the euro zone and Japan, has already seen a marked appreciation of the yuan against the euro and the yen.
A stronger yuan also lowers China's imports bill and would only add to the central bank's concerns about the risk of deflation in the country.
"Inflation in China is also declining. We need to have vigilance if this can go further to reach some sort of deflation or not," said People's Bank of China governor Zhou Xiaochuan on March 29.
Zhou's concerns are well grounded. With global food prices, a key component in China's inflation index, having fallen again last month, according to the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organisation, a stronger yuan, by making food imports even cheaper, would only heighten the risk of imported deflation.
There is also the possibility that dollar-denominated energy prices might again prove a source of deflation if a framework agreement between Iran and six world powers ultimately results in an increased supply of Iranian oil and gas, an imported deflationary impulse that would only be exacerbated by a rising yuan.
China's interests might be best served by a stable or indeed weaker yuan while the IMF is deliberating, particularly as the discussion begins next month but the final decision may only come in January next year. Even the current strength of the yuan has already elicited comment from the Asian Development Bank.
"It is time to ask whether the [yuan] has become overvalued relative to fundamentals," said ADB chief economist Wei Shang-Jin on March 24 as the bank unveiled its annual economic overview of the region.
Yet an even stronger yuan seems the unavoidable consequence of its inclusion as a constituent part of the SDR, joining the US dollar, the euro, the British pound and the yen.
"The official recognition of the [yuan's] reserve-currency status would spur [yuan] investment by central banks all over the world," Standard Chartered's Jukka Pihlman said in December.
The day-to-day yield from holding the [yuan] is much better than the derisory or indeed negative returns on offer from other units
"Moreover, the sheer magnitude of Chinese exports - China is the world's largest exporter of goods and services - would send the [yuan] straight past the yen and the pound to make it the third-highest-weighted currency in the SDR."
In truth, yuan inclusion in the SDR basket is seemingly only a matter of time.
"It's not a question of if, it's a question of when," said IMF managing director Christine Lagarde when asked about the SDR issue.
Of course, that might not necessarily mean inclusion in the next 12 months.
While European countries such as Britain, Germany, France and Italy seem more favourable to the idea, others such as Japan and the United States seem less enamoured.
However, foreign-exchange traders think ahead and might be attracted to the view that if inclusion in the SDR would mean the yuan would subsequently appreciate in value, it would be best to initiate the trade before the decision.
Dealers looking to buy the yuan will also know the day-to-day yield from holding the currency is much better than the derisory or indeed negative returns on offer from other units such as the euro, the yen and the dollar.
Nevertheless, it is surely not in China's immediate interests to see the yuan firm in advance of an IMF decision on its inclusion in the SDR, knowing the move would then trigger yet more demand for it. Its best interests, in the interim, might be best served by leaning against any such speculative demand for the yuan.
That would help preserve the country's export competitiveness, limit currency-related imported deflationary pressures and help ensure that if inclusion in the SDR is secured, the level from which the yuan then begins to strengthen is one with which Beijing is more comfortable.
China sees the inclusion of the yuan in the SDR as being in its interests, but allowing the yuan to rise in value, while that issue is still being debated, may very well not be.
http://www.scmp.com/business/economy/article/1764809/yuans-sdr-inclusion-could-do-harm-china
For the yuan to be accepted as a reserve currency, the country will lose export competitiveness and risk falling into deflation as unit strengthens
Beijing may be pressing for the yuan to be included in the special drawing rights, the International Monetary Fund's unit of account, but that would also trigger major demand for the currency that could have adverse impact on China's other economic interests.
The country's export competitiveness would be eroded if the yuan was to appreciate anew against the currencies of other major economies. This could be particularly problematic when ultra-accommodative monetary policy elsewhere, such as in the euro zone and Japan, has already seen a marked appreciation of the yuan against the euro and the yen.
A stronger yuan also lowers China's imports bill and would only add to the central bank's concerns about the risk of deflation in the country.
"Inflation in China is also declining. We need to have vigilance if this can go further to reach some sort of deflation or not," said People's Bank of China governor Zhou Xiaochuan on March 29.
Zhou's concerns are well grounded. With global food prices, a key component in China's inflation index, having fallen again last month, according to the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organisation, a stronger yuan, by making food imports even cheaper, would only heighten the risk of imported deflation.
There is also the possibility that dollar-denominated energy prices might again prove a source of deflation if a framework agreement between Iran and six world powers ultimately results in an increased supply of Iranian oil and gas, an imported deflationary impulse that would only be exacerbated by a rising yuan.
China's interests might be best served by a stable or indeed weaker yuan while the IMF is deliberating, particularly as the discussion begins next month but the final decision may only come in January next year. Even the current strength of the yuan has already elicited comment from the Asian Development Bank.
"It is time to ask whether the [yuan] has become overvalued relative to fundamentals," said ADB chief economist Wei Shang-Jin on March 24 as the bank unveiled its annual economic overview of the region.
Yet an even stronger yuan seems the unavoidable consequence of its inclusion as a constituent part of the SDR, joining the US dollar, the euro, the British pound and the yen.
"The official recognition of the [yuan's] reserve-currency status would spur [yuan] investment by central banks all over the world," Standard Chartered's Jukka Pihlman said in December.
The day-to-day yield from holding the [yuan] is much better than the derisory or indeed negative returns on offer from other units
"Moreover, the sheer magnitude of Chinese exports - China is the world's largest exporter of goods and services - would send the [yuan] straight past the yen and the pound to make it the third-highest-weighted currency in the SDR."
In truth, yuan inclusion in the SDR basket is seemingly only a matter of time.
"It's not a question of if, it's a question of when," said IMF managing director Christine Lagarde when asked about the SDR issue.
Of course, that might not necessarily mean inclusion in the next 12 months.
While European countries such as Britain, Germany, France and Italy seem more favourable to the idea, others such as Japan and the United States seem less enamoured.
However, foreign-exchange traders think ahead and might be attracted to the view that if inclusion in the SDR would mean the yuan would subsequently appreciate in value, it would be best to initiate the trade before the decision.
Dealers looking to buy the yuan will also know the day-to-day yield from holding the currency is much better than the derisory or indeed negative returns on offer from other units such as the euro, the yen and the dollar.
Nevertheless, it is surely not in China's immediate interests to see the yuan firm in advance of an IMF decision on its inclusion in the SDR, knowing the move would then trigger yet more demand for it. Its best interests, in the interim, might be best served by leaning against any such speculative demand for the yuan.
That would help preserve the country's export competitiveness, limit currency-related imported deflationary pressures and help ensure that if inclusion in the SDR is secured, the level from which the yuan then begins to strengthen is one with which Beijing is more comfortable.
China sees the inclusion of the yuan in the SDR as being in its interests, but allowing the yuan to rise in value, while that issue is still being debated, may very well not be.
http://www.scmp.com/business/economy/article/1764809/yuans-sdr-inclusion-could-do-harm-china
Yesterday at 5:28 pm by Rocky
» utube MM&C 4/16/24 IQD Update - Iraq Dinar - America - Activate - Massive Economic Deals -
Yesterday at 5:24 pm by Rocky
» Al-Sudani urges the US corporation Honeywell to help finish the Basra refinery
Yesterday at 2:48 pm by Rocky
» Al-Sudani Meets with Representatives of Western Media Outlets in Washington
Yesterday at 2:46 pm by Rocky
» Chairman of the Investment Authority signs the United Nations Convention on International Mediation
Yesterday at 2:44 pm by Rocky
» PM: We will sign a contract to establish the Al-Faw refinery with a Chinese company
Yesterday at 2:42 pm by Rocky
» PM arrives in Houston as part of his visit to USA
Yesterday at 2:41 pm by Rocky
» Militia Man & Crew 4/18/24 Bush signed it and all presidents implemented it. Iraq’s funds have been
Yesterday at 1:46 pm by Rocky
» Association of Iraqi Private Banks: The suspension of some electronic payment services yesterday was
Yesterday at 7:14 am by Rocky
» Iraq is close to launching the electronic signature
Yesterday at 7:12 am by Rocky
» The Basra government discusses with an international oil company the implementation of social benefi
Yesterday at 7:11 am by Rocky
» The Prime Minister confirms to an American company: Gas projects in Iraq are a priority for the gove
Yesterday at 7:10 am by Rocky
» The Minister of Planning discusses with the World Bank mechanisms for scheduling external loans
Yesterday at 7:09 am by Rocky
» Oil sets the twenty-seventh of this month as the date for opening contracts for the fifth complement
Yesterday at 7:08 am by Rocky
» “Electronic begging”...professionalism and fabrication of stories” generates millions of dinars dail
Yesterday at 7:05 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani calls on the American company Hanwell to contribute to the completion of the Basra refiner
Yesterday at 7:03 am by Rocky
» An American company expresses its willingness to establish LED lighting production lines in Iraq
Yesterday at 7:02 am by Rocky
» Including Iraq.. Iran announces the possibility of exporting 300 megawatts of “renewable electricity
Yesterday at 7:01 am by Rocky
» Political forces present two options to find an alternative to Al-Halbousi
Yesterday at 6:58 am by Rocky
» Parliament is awaiting the arrival of the budget schedules and the government is studying higher spe
Yesterday at 6:56 am by Rocky
» The International Monetary Fund adjusts its expectations for the development of the world’s economie
Yesterday at 6:54 am by Rocky
» A representative talks about the difficulty of finalizing the file of “electing the Speaker of Parli
Yesterday at 6:50 am by Rocky
» Work on preparing a law for diplomatic passports
Yesterday at 6:49 am by Rocky
» A female representative accuses the Ministry of Immigration of corruption
Yesterday at 6:47 am by Rocky
» Minister: Solving the Kurdistan salaries problem is the beginning of addressing other disputes betwe
Yesterday at 6:45 am by Rocky
» About 270 million dollars were sold by the Central Bank of Iraq in the currency auction
Yesterday at 6:42 am by Rocky
» The volume of trade exchange between Jordan and Iraq will exceed 800 million dinars in 2023
Yesterday at 6:41 am by Rocky
» Iraq signs memorandums of understanding with American companies in the fields of electricity, oil an
Yesterday at 5:31 am by Rocky
» The American company that manufactures the F16 expresses its readiness to implement the terms of con
Yesterday at 5:30 am by Rocky
» The volume of expected Qatari investments for the Iraq Fund for Development exceeds $3.5 billion
Yesterday at 5:29 am by Rocky
» Decrease in dollar prices in Baghdad and Erbil
Yesterday at 5:27 am by Rocky
» The President of the Region brings together the Kurdish parties to resolve the election file
Yesterday at 5:26 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani receives in Washington the Chairman of JPMorgan
Yesterday at 5:25 am by Rocky
» Transport is starting to transform its ports into smart ones
Yesterday at 5:23 am by Rocky
» Sudanese reveals the volume of exchange with America
Yesterday at 5:22 am by Rocky
» "Al-Eqtisad News" publishes the memorandums of understanding signed between the Iraqi delegation and
Yesterday at 5:21 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani urges an American company to contribute to establishing a chemical materials factory
Yesterday at 5:20 am by Rocky
» Iraq stresses the importance of Lockheed Martin's commitment to opening military aircraft maintenanc
Yesterday at 5:19 am by Rocky
» Iraq is on the verge of a “water disaster” by 2035
Yesterday at 5:18 am by Rocky
» Great satisfaction and optimism with the results of Sudanese’s visit to Washington
Yesterday at 5:16 am by Rocky
» Transport is beginning to adopt a plan to transform its ports into smart ones
Yesterday at 5:15 am by Rocky
» Completed 8,000 loan transactions at the Housing Bank
Yesterday at 5:14 am by Rocky
» Prime Minister: We plan to invest production capacities for export
Yesterday at 5:12 am by Rocky
» Transformation and partnership...a new horizon in Iraqi-American relations
Yesterday at 5:10 am by Rocky
» What is new in the economic dimension of the Washington visit?
Yesterday at 5:09 am by Rocky
» Two letters to the future
Yesterday at 5:08 am by Rocky
» National interests first
Yesterday at 5:06 am by Rocky
» Iraqi-American rapprochement...a national necessity
Yesterday at 5:05 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani’s visit to Washington and the course of Iraqi-American relations
Yesterday at 5:04 am by Rocky
» Sudanese carries security, economic and development files to Washington
Yesterday at 5:03 am by Rocky
» Armament and military development... features of a sustainable partnership
Yesterday at 5:02 am by Rocky
» Analysts: Sudanese's visit to Washington will achieve excellent results in the future
Yesterday at 5:01 am by Rocky
» Iraqi-American relations...the legacy of the past and the aspirations of partnership
Yesterday at 5:00 am by Rocky
» Sudanese and external necessities
Yesterday at 4:59 am by Rocky
» The Strategic Framework Agreement... 7 important provisions
Yesterday at 4:58 am by Rocky
» Joint statement of the Iraqi-American discussions
Yesterday at 4:56 am by Rocky
» Supreme Coordinating Committee: Iraq's role is vital to the security and prosperity of the region
Yesterday at 4:55 am by Rocky
» Towards an effective bilateral economic relationship between Baghdad and Washington
Yesterday at 4:53 am by Rocky
» She saw it as a new, different chapter in Iraqi-American relations... Al-Sudani’s visit to Washingto
Yesterday at 4:52 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani’s visit to Washington.. Implications and results
Yesterday at 4:51 am by Rocky
» Advisor to the Prime Minister: The relationship with America has moved to the stage of cooperation
Yesterday at 4:50 am by Rocky
» Sudanese sponsors the signing ceremony of memorandums of understanding in America
Yesterday at 4:47 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani: The volume of exchange between Iraq and the United States does not exceed 10 billion doll
Yesterday at 4:46 am by Rocky
» During Erdogan's visit on Monday, Iraq seeks to sign the "Water Protocol" with Türkiye
Yesterday at 4:45 am by Rocky
» With the escalation of tension between Tehran and Tel Aviv...an expert reveals the secrets of Sudane
Yesterday at 4:43 am by Rocky
» There are 150 draft laws on the parliament table waiting to be voted on... and the debates require c
Yesterday at 4:42 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani stresses the necessity of continuing the dialogue with the US Treasury, the Federal Reserv
Yesterday at 4:41 am by Rocky
» Deputy: We reject the term sanctions, and Iraq is financially independent
Yesterday at 4:38 am by Rocky
» Warnings of a “political impasse” after Barzani’s boycott of the elections... Al-Sadr raises questio
Yesterday at 4:37 am by Rocky
» The head of the Kurdistan Regional Government’s representative office in Baghdad visits the external
Yesterday at 4:36 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani: There are no combat forces in Iraq to withdraw.. The Iraqi Prime Minister confirmed in Wa
Yesterday at 4:34 am by Rocky
» Do the Iraqi political blocs really intend to hold the second early elections?
Yesterday at 4:33 am by Rocky
» Baghdad is not aware of the factions’ participation in the attack on Israel, and Washington is revie
Yesterday at 4:32 am by Rocky
» Progress: Al-Halbousi may return to the presidency of Parliament
Yesterday at 4:30 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani: Iraq has distinguished relations with Iran and America
Yesterday at 4:30 am by Rocky
» Minister of Industry: Iraq is not a rich country and the electricity problem will not be solved even
Yesterday at 4:29 am by Rocky
» A prospective law to employ prisoners and detainees... job and retirement opportunities similar to E
Yesterday at 4:27 am by Rocky
» Sako in Baghdad.. Three possible scenarios for his return after the “withdrawal of the decree” crisi
Yesterday at 4:26 am by Rocky
» Parliamentary Integrity reveals a move with the judiciary to recover TBI Bank’s funds
Yesterday at 4:24 am by Rocky
» Iraq signs 18 memorandums of understanding with Washington
Yesterday at 4:22 am by Rocky
» An Iraqi judicial delegation arrives in Syria to discuss terrorism files and document ISIS crimes
Yesterday at 4:21 am by Rocky
» A plan to exploit new lands...the latest developments in the wheat, barley and rice season in Iraq
Yesterday at 4:19 am by Rocky
» Al-Abadi accuses oil companies of causing 70% of the cancer rate in Basra
Yesterday at 4:17 am by Rocky
» Justice announces the formation of a higher committee to resolve the state’s real estate file
Yesterday at 4:16 am by Rocky
» Deputy: Iraq seeks to sign the “Water Protocol” with Türkiye
Yesterday at 4:15 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani stresses the importance of the American company Lockheed’s commitment to opening military
Yesterday at 4:13 am by Rocky
» The team accompanying Sudanese in Washington: America will hand over to Iraq the antiquities that we
Yesterday at 4:12 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani sponsors the signing ceremony of memorandums of understanding with American companies
Wed 17 Apr 2024, 3:38 pm by Rocky
» MM&C 4/17/24 Saleh: The budget tables are almost complete and will take into account urgent circu
Wed 17 Apr 2024, 3:36 pm by Rocky
» Saleh: Private banks in Iraq are considering reorganizing themselves with another government structu
Wed 17 Apr 2024, 3:33 pm by Rocky
» Al-Sudani: It is not possible to work in any development sector without reforming the banking sector
Wed 17 Apr 2024, 3:32 pm by Rocky
» Minister of Oil: Kurdistan’s exports will soon resume, and the region must hand over its oil to SOMO
Wed 17 Apr 2024, 3:30 pm by Rocky
» An economic expert identifies ways for Iraq to get out of oil rents... starting with $350 million
Wed 17 Apr 2024, 3:29 pm by Rocky
» Parliamentary Oil: A proposal to establish Iraqi refineries in neighboring countries... and these ar
Wed 17 Apr 2024, 3:28 pm by Rocky
» Al-Ardawi: The Sudanese government seeks to liberalize the Iraqi dinar and stabilize the economy
Wed 17 Apr 2024, 3:27 pm by Rocky
» MM&C 4/17/24 Al-Sudani receives in Washington the Chairman of JPMorgan
Wed 17 Apr 2024, 2:41 pm by Rocky
» MM&C 4/17/24 US Supports Iraq in joining WTO
Wed 17 Apr 2024, 2:36 pm by Rocky
» US Supports Iraq in joining WTO
Wed 17 Apr 2024, 10:17 am by Rocky
» utube 4/14/24 MM&C Iraqi Dinar - Iraq Prime Minister in Washington - Coming to
Wed 17 Apr 2024, 8:58 am by Rocky