Posted on September 26, 2015 by Martin Armstrong
Our Cycle of War used as the seed the Wheeler Index. However, there were some major problems with key events that were overlooked. So we corrected the data and then extended it for the period following his death. We then created a parallel index correlated to economics. The next result was a series of cycles appeared and a correlation with the economy emerged very clearly interfaced with debt. The fundamental principle to emerge from that work was the fact that we could both distinguish between domestic civil unrest which begins and at times moves into revolution, and international events. There are interesting political responses which often determine the outcome.
On the international level, war emerges from two separate trends. First there is the more traditional trend where the economy turns down which results in government needing too find an external enemy or there will be civil unrest that overthrows the government. This version is intertwined with the Civil Unrest Model and is often the escape value for government to retain power. Here the domestic unrest model can be transformed into an international conflict if politics is desperate to save itself and sees that way out.
The second trend stands in contrast to the first in what we identified as the Conquest Model whereby governments seek to expand their territory for money and power detached from economic pressure caused by a decline. This can be seen as Alexander the Great, Rome, Charlemagne and Japan, etc. The subdivision of the international conflict level we call the retribution model whereby there is a preceding economic crisis. This subdivision is illustrated by Napoleon and Hitler. These were trends that were also an admixture between domestic economic problems that leads to war as in the case of Napoleon and Hitler as distinguished from a pure power expansion.
Creating a database that could distinguish all these moving parts was key to creating our model for the Cycle of War ™ which others have tried to mimic without the database assuming all we did was use the Wheeler Index. The cycle frequency we discovered is not discoverable from using just the Wheeler Index.
Here is what we see for Europe. There are many rising trends toward separatist movements. This will rise further and we will see this begin to emerge as a far more common trend over the next two years. This weekend, we have the Catalan Vote which cannot be suppressed and it should trigger unilateral steps towards region’s secession from Spain. Keep in mind that Spain was formed with the marriage of Ferdinand and Isabella. Catalan independence seeks to reverse that merger and this is being driven by the insanity of Spain trying to stay inside the Euro forcing austerity and rising taxation upon the people in the midst of wholesale corruption.
Now in Texas, we have seen a consistent separatist movement for years. Now a nationalist group wants Texas Secession on the Primary Ballot. Even the resistance to Gay Marriage is a key to rising separatist movements within the USA and the Tea Party is also a reflection of the clash in philosophy where one nation for all shoving down the throats of everyone a central policy is starting to irritate people and when the economy turns down, this will flare up even more.
We see this trend rising in Canada with Quebec and we will see this trend emerge where Staten Island will seek to separate from New York City.
Welcome to the other side of 2015.75
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