Today a legend in the business that is highly-connected in China told King World News that people should forget about the 100,000 layoffs because it means nothing in the big picture. He went on to discuss exactly what is happening in China and how it will impact key markets such as gold.
August 30 (King World News)
Eric King: “John, China drove the price of commodities into the stratosphere by 2011. Now China has this economic turmoil and we’ve seen the collapse in commodity prices. When will China’s economy bounce back and create another commodity boom?”
John Ing: “People are making a big deal out of the fact that China just laid off 100,000 people in the coal mining sector. But these people are making a big deal out of nothing. While it’s unfortunate for the people who were laid off, we’re talking about 100,000 people in a country with a population of 1.3 billion people.
Also, China has been saying for some time now that they were going to consolidate the coal industry, iron-ore industry, etc. There are simply too many producers. So it’s not surprising that we are seeing these layoffs…
Continue reading the John Ing interview below…
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“I think the Chinese would be the first to say that 10+ percent growth is a thing of the past. They found that at 10 percent growth they faced commodity shortages, skyrocketing prices and a significant imbalance with that type of frenzied growth pattern.
So China’s economy has been purposefully and successfully slowed down. They have continued to investment in infrastructure, and I believe that the 7 percent growth will continue. The problem with growth that is slower than that pace is that it then becomes an unemployment problem.
China Is Making Important Global Chess Moves
So we should not just look at the last cycle and think that’s going to be permanent. What China is now attempting to do is to grow in a steady and balanced manner. At the same time they are restructuring at lot of their state-owned enterprises. They are also closely monitoring their growth pattern and how it impacts the rest of the world.
A major event this year was the Chinese devaluation. In fact, I believe that the Chinese devaluation was the most pivotal event this year. I say that because the Chinese, at long last, were recognizing that their currency was too strong. They had been pricing their exports relative to their trading partners and they were running into very stiff competition. This was the key rational behind China’s move to devalue.
What About Gold?
Of interest, Eric, is that since August 11, when they announced the devaluation, the Dow Jones has fallen about 9 percent. Whereas the price of gold since that announcement is up something like 5 percent in dollar terms. The Chinese citizenry also knows that the best way to protect against currency devaluations is to buy gold.
And if you look at the price of gold during the Greek crisis, gold went up 5 percent in one month. Gold is up in a number of currencies across the globe for the year such as the South African rand. And gold is up 20 percent in yen over the past two years. So people should be focusing on gold’s role on the world’s stage. And the move by China to devalue is yet another example of why gold is such an important store of value.
People should also be keeping an eye on the U.S. dollar. If the dollar begins to tumble, there is some support at 92 and then real support at 87. That type of decline in the dollar will send gold sharply higher, breaking through key overhead resistance levels. There isn’t any meaningful resistance on the gold chart until the $1,240 area.
I believe the gold market has now put in a very good base at $1,100. So my near-term target for gold is $1,400. When gold moves solidly through the $1,400 level, I would then look for $1,700. The price of gold taking out key resistance levels will take place in the fall. So the outlook for the gold market with all the uncertainty around the world is very, very positive.”