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The collapse of the currency pegs .. bet for new investors

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rocky
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The collapse of the currency pegs .. bet for new investors

Post by rocky on Sat 27 Feb 2016, 5:35 pm





[size=39]The collapse of the currency pegs .. bet for new investors

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2702 2016
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Action will not last forever




Salt question asked in the early of this year is: How long can such countries as China, Saudi Arabia and others to continue to rely on currency reserves to spare their currencies strong and a sharp drop in value? The global economy is showing new signs of weakness and cause the collapse of commodity prices in undermining the budgets of many countries, investors are betting that the currency is witnessing the biggest weakness and the end to tie the Saudi riyal to the dollar. Analysts aredivided over whether traders or central banks that will prevail in the end . but states Tstantvd reserves to maintain the foreign exchange existing policy, a strategy thought the likes of Bill Akman, funds and other hedge it can not continue indefinitely. Roger Blitz- translation and preparation Iman Attia - there are two main objectives for the use of foreign currency reserves, countries are adopting and the accumulation of currency reserves for troubled and crisis periods, to deal with «Lehman happened», says Charles St. Arnaud strategist specialist foreign exchange at Nomura, and to improve the liquidity flow and ensure that there isliquidity in the market. the goal the other is to close the gap between theeconomic fundamentals of the country and site of its currency . It depends on what you are trying to fight it , says St. Arnaud. Central banks have used large amounts of foreign currency reserves, but it is difficult to address the essential factors. The problem with the use of reserves is that they undermine market confidence in the user. A position of weakness in secret and she says Kate Jax of Societe Generale Bank: If all what they mean is that they are just decoration force you can not use it , they are the authorized liar shield. He says Oip Manding, who worked formerly the international Monetary Fund, is currently in New Sparta asset Management Fund that countries that built their financial reserves from a position of strength now hesitate to use them in a position of weakness. They do not want to validate the market perception of being in a position of weakness. As the art ofManding says intervention is discretionary. He added: The question is how to get a balance in its exchange rate in an orderly manner. You can use the reserves in amanner undeclared, without letting the market know what is the preferred level has. Stunningly low expected China, which owns about a third of the reserves in the world, exhausted and nearly $ 800 billion of its shares in the past 18 months.And forced the weakness in the Saudi oil prices to resort to its reserves, which fell to $ 100 billion last year compared to 2014, which led to the high cost of futures prices in dollar peg. In the Saudi case, which rely on imported goods, it is tomaintain the exchange rate stable is important, according to Arup Chatterjee of Barclays Bank says. For China, it is important for her to address the problem of out of capital. He adds: The fact that China deplete large amounts of reserves is a problem. It should allow the exchange rate to help stabilize the situation, but they are very reluctant to do so. Era of accumulation of foreign reserves in emerging countries began to decline, led by China. According to what he says George Saraveloz, Deutsche Bank , then if the country maintained the attrition rate, by theend of the year could fall world 's reserves to $ 10 trillion, lower by $ 4 trillion from the peak of 2015. Such a decline can be «astonishing», he says. it may be thedecline in January , less than expected, and China still has reserves worth $ 3.2 trillion. However, there are two sources of concern, says Peter Kinsella, strategist for emerging markets at Commerzbank Bank Bank. First, it may turn out that theJanuary number was greater when it detects interference in the futures markets.Second, China must maintain sufficient reserves to meet the needs of such cover imports, and therefore, the amount available for intervention in the currency market is never close to $ 3.2 trillion. As strategists specialists in foreign exchange rates also wondering what began whether Japan, second only to China among thelargest owners of cash reserves in the world worth $ 1.3 trillion, it may intervene directly in the currency market for the first time in five years. The decision was sudden taken last month on negative interest rates failed to halt the rise of theyen, causing a lot of concern for the companies. Says David Bloom, a strategist for currencies at HSBC Bank that the Bank of Japan may reconsider the subject ofdirect intervention in the currency market as an option, just as it was considered his Swiss counterpart that it is necessary to set a minimum value of the franc against the euro in 2011 to stop the currency to rise. However , due to the yen denominated undervalued, it would be difficult to justify the measure, and may end failure at the end of the day, says Bloom. Central banks are involved in a game of daring and defiance with market participants such as Akman. But for how long will continue to use reserves to support the currency pegs? Says Daniel Tninguzr, at RBC Capital Markets, said Saudi Arabia has a much larger area to keep the dollar peg policy. And it withstood Saudi Arabia and other countries linked to the dollar ,such as in the Gulf of Oman and Bahrain before the drop in oil prices in the past.But this time may be different. Kinsella as it is believed that the Saudi peg is on borrowed time now, undermined by weak foundations that would lead to theescape of capital Whatever you do the authorities to keep the exchange rate regime. Peg does not last forever, he says Jax. There are not a lot of credibility about the linkage idea. Currency peg is quite a bit when monetary policy is going in one direction. Now we have needs in varying significantly policies.[/size]

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