US magazine: loss of Fallujah could push Daash to adopt the strategy of al-Zarqawi by targeting Shiite neighborhoods
Baghdad / term
Draws political analyst Daniel Deptrs in a report published by the National Interest magazine America, to thefive factors must be taken into account in this regard, the first that in 2014, it was Daash movement achieved successes, but now it is structured is suffering from heavy losses in the territory.
thanks to the US air force and the Iraqi army , which increasing professional abilities because of the American intensive training, face Daash series losing streak in both Iraq and Syria over the past nine months.
during November of last month, he succeeded joint Strike forces Peshmerga and Iraqi forces to restore thetown of Sinjar, and has in recent months also gray restored. Moreover expelled Daash town Shaddadi Syria in February.
In spite of that the Iraqi security forces are still cumbersome, they gained momentum, especially as he was draining nearly half of the oil resources of Daash, and the decline in the number of foreign fighters dramatically (from about 2,000 fighters a month to about 200).
the success of the ground operation in Fallujah that represents another setback for Daash, and the effect of depriving the terrorist organization from the area serves as a "theater of operations" are just a short drive from the Iraqi capital Baghdad. the
second factor that during the past few weeks , committed Daash worst violence in Baghdad this year; it won a series of synchronized attacks in Shi'ite areas of the Iraqi capital , about 150 people in one week. this
included violence May 17 bombings on the outskirts of Baghdad, Sadr city, which has not only resulted inisolation of the capital , but also to accelerate protests against the government as a result of corruption and mismanagement.
for the coalition government unpopular and popular among the Iraqi people, is to prevent further attacks expected mass casualties in Baghdad, an important issue imposed on Prime Minister Haider al - Abadi considered a top priority.
the third factor, the The international Alliance against Daash led by the United States, it is estimated for along time, the expulsion of the Daash of the second largest city in Iraq (Mosul) will constitute one of thebiggest blows to the reputation of the organization and its credibility as a jihadist movement. However , it is unfortunate that the attack on Mosul has been postponed several times, as a result of internal conflicts and divisions between the anti factions to Daash which aspires to take advantage of the liberation of the city.
In the case of armed attack to cleanse Fallujah took longer than expected, you might want Baghdad to redeploy troops, that it will use in editing Mosul, Fallujah and directed towards ensuring the protection of thecity adequately counter - attack to Daash.
Group IV focuses on the prime minister Haidar al - Abbadi saw the mandate of the tough. Despite retaining the confidence of the United States , the European Union and the Alliance 's anti-Daash, it remains weak position in the light of a political system dominated by sectarian and commissions and corruption. Moreover, the militant Shiite factions in the Iraqi parliament continues to thwart the attempt Abadi for the appointment of a government of technocrats have political influence is limited.
Then came the Iraqi army operation in Fallujah in perfect timing to the Prime Minister; the success in restoring the city will give Abadi strong support at a time is in need it most.
last factor is , it became apparent that Daash Full strong regulation strikes whenever he found himself on the defensive. Apart from the loss of land , financial resources and the group 's leaders, the Daash still aformidable force and brutality able to sneak in the streets of Baghdad crowded.
It is expected that the organization back to Abu Musab al - Zarqawi 's strategy in the event of increased losses on the ground, which is the random bombings wholesale Shiite neighborhoods; to embarrass Abadi management.
the attention of the writer at the conclusion of his report to the efforts of the international coalition against Daash and Washington 's push to destroy the alleged Daash succession, pointing out that al - Abadi still has alot of work; where terrorism is only one problem in a long list other problems faced by Iraqis.