Aug. 12, 2016 10:02am Chris Field
The Republican Party and its nominee have been looking for good news over the last few weeks, and Iowa may have just provided it.
A new Suffolk University poll of Iowa likely voters has GOP standard bearer Donald Trump ahead of Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton 41-40 in a head-to-head matchup. And in a four-way race, which includes Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson and the Green Party’s Jill Stein, Trump still leads Clinton by a point, 37-36.
Donald Trump attends a campaign rally at Iowa’s Sioux City Orpheum Theatre. (Getty Images/Joe Raedle)
Despite the positive polling numbers, the survey did include a bit of a mixed message for Trump — Iowans still don’t think he will win:
A NBC/Wall Street Journal poll of registered voters published Tuesday had Clinton up by four, 41-37, in the only other Iowa poll that has been conducted since the two major parties’ conventions. And the RealClearPolitics average of Iowa polls has Clinton with a 0.4-point lead.Despite Iowa likely voters splitting almost evenly between Trump and Clinton, the perception among those Hawkeye State likely voters is that Clinton will prevail in November. Nearly 53 percent of Iowans said that when all the votes are counted this November, Clinton will win. Just 31 percent said they thought Trump will win. Some 16 percent weren’t sure.
The swing state went to President Barack Obama in 2012 and 2008, while President Bush took it in 2004 after losing it to Vice President Al Gore in 2000.
The varying results and close polls should not be too surprising considering that, as Suffolk pointed out, party registration in Iowa is very evenly split — Republicans at 33 percent, Democrats at 32 percent — with 35 percent of voters claiming to be independent or having no party affiliation.