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Alabzorfer" writes about the potential of the process of liberalization of Mosul scenarios



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Alabzorfer" writes about the potential of the process of liberalization of Mosul scenarios

Post by rocky on Mon 29 Aug 2016, 2:44 am

[ltr]Alabzorfer" writes about the potential of the process of liberalization of Mosul scenarios[/ltr]

 Since 28/08/2016 16:56 pm (Baghdad time)

[ltr]Baghdad balances News[/ltr]
[ltr]A report in the newspaper Alabzorfer warned of the humanitarian consequences of the restoration of the city of Mosul, waves of refugees, which may flow from the city after defeating al Daesh.[/ltr]
[ltr]According to the reporting Emma Graham Harrison, said that the campaign may lead to the exodus, up to a million displaced people to the Iraqi Kurdistan areas, increasing the burden of the Kurdistan Regional Government, which suffer from the danger of collapse; because multiple crises, according to documents seen by the newspaper.[/ltr]
[ltr]It reveals newspaper government plan to cope with the influx of displaced persons, and to call for urgent assistance from the international community, especially as the government is facing problems to provide for 1.5 million to help refugees arrived in the land since entering the organization Daesh northern Iraq fighters.[/ltr]
[ltr]The report, that the documents says that without adequate funding to cope with the refugee crisis in the region is "facing a complete collapse," pointing out that the officials say that the security of the region at risk, where fighters of the organization will try to penetrate the displaced groups.[/ltr]
[ltr]The author sets out that according to an emergency plan prepared by the Ministry of Interior and the region, the Kurdistan Regional Government's capacity to absorb new waves of displaced people is almost non-existent, they are suffering from a financial crisis, and the arrival of 1.5 million displaced people, in addition to the costly war with al Daesh.[/ltr]
[ltr]And draws the paper to the current plans for the restoration of the city of Mosul, which has been postponed more than once, amid optimism within the Government of Haider al-Abadi, who said last week that the city "will be freed in 2016," noting that the Iraqi forces advancing along the Tigris River, while the approaching forces Peshmerga from the east, and seized control of the Iraqi forces on the town of Qayyarah, which lies 70 kilometers from Mosul, Peshmerga and became the closest distance.[/ltr]
[ltr]The report states that the connector represents a strategic importance for both parties, the capital of the organization Daesh operations, another strong strongholds after losing Ramadi and Fallujah, and was fighting to get him out of them a prelude to the restoration of Mosul, pointing out that there are expectations of an outbreak of street wars, and the use of brutal methods to organize Daesh, including the use of population as human shields, and booby-trapping buildings and streets with explosives.[/ltr]
[ltr]Harrison reports that civilians in Mosul are facing a high risk, as there are 800 thousand live in the countryside of the city, and 1.2 million people within them, pointing out that in the case of the city of Ramadi, they were depopulated after forcing the fighters to leave the city, leaving the Fallujah residents only 40 thousand when the organization was forced to leave.[/ltr]
[ltr]It notes the paper that documents the Kurdistan government are talking about three scenarios for the war, where the scenario is expected most optimistic flow of 100 thousand of refugees in the event of a quick military operation, while the darker scenario is expected for a long military operation, and the war in the streets leading to the withdrawal of more than one million citizens towards Kurdistan. pointing out that the government expects a compromise choice between the optimist and the pessimist, the continuation of the war for weeks or months, in addition to the entire siege of the city, cut off supply routes to it, leading to food shortages, and fighting intense, and the air raids, and this has lead to the creation of the displacement crisis .[/ltr]
[ltr]According to the report, the government expects to get out of more than 400 thousand displaced people, where most of these will arrive with intensified fighting and air strikes, and needs them to absorb $ 275 million in the month, especially that most of them will arrive in the camps does not have only the clothes worn.[/ltr]
[ltr]And the movement of the writer of the document summarizing the situation, saying: "It is likely to be the displacement of hundreds of thousands, and besieging and injure and kill, and will work out, it will leave behind all of his property, and will depend exclusively on humanitarian assistance," documents the Kurdistan Regional Government to face displacement crisis of Mosul need to help more than Baghdad and the international community, he says: "We expect more help, and the contribution from the Iraqi government and the international community, or face a serious humanitarian disaster, the region can not be stopped."[/ltr]
[ltr]Harrison and remember that the United Nations has warned that the battle lead to the creation of a humanitarian disaster, and appealed to nations to donate, noting that the Kurdistan region did not happen at the moment only 20% of the required support to meet the needs of the displaced.[/ltr]
[ltr]And draws the paper that the Kurdistan region is facing a severe crisis due to the collapse in oil prices, and the absence of support from the central government, noting that Baghdad has decided to reduce the support after the Kurdistan regional government decided to export oil in an independent manner, reaching financial crisis, the extent of the degree of non-receipt of Peshmerga salaries for seven months, plus to the civil service sector, where civil servants remained without salaries for months.[/ltr]
[ltr]The report shows that the region is trying to maintain its status a safe area, and to prevent their exposure to attacks, such as those that hit Turkey, Syria and Iraq, began a new security Bajrat, such as establishing checkpoints at entry points; to examine the entrants for the region, it said in government documents that "the procedures are ready, and will be applied along the front and entry points in the event of a mass exodus of the population. "[/ltr]
[ltr]The writer reports that analysts warn the inability of any plan to confront the collective waves afterthought that even if the Kurdistan Regional Government has been able to prevent the entry of militias, but that the arrival of new waves could lead to ethnic tensions and sectarian, and disputes over areas where raised Kurds progress in Iraq and Syria doubts about their ambitions between the governments of the region and the Arab population, who fear change the map of the region at a time when the Kurds continue it in the control of new areas.[/ltr]
[ltr]The paper quotes the Director of the Department of Foreign Relations of the Kurdistan Regional Government Falah Mustafa, saying: "All the areas liberated by Peshmerga forces will remain in our hands."[/ltr]
[ltr]The report shows that "not for the American air support for managed these forces control over these areas, which are equivalent to an area half the Kurdistan region of space, is the most important control of the northern city of Kirkuk, which entered the Peshmerga in the summer of 2014, and since that time the voices of the displaced, who have said that the Peshmerga prevented return to their villages, where they were organizing Daesh, and most of those of the Arabs and the Yazidis, who have expressed their fear of invoking the Peshmerga under the pretext of security to control their areas, the same situation in Syria, where he strengthened the Kurds offer US support Arab fears there, which prompted Turkey to intervene directly in the war, in an attempt to prevent the Kurds from achieving new gains. "[/ltr]
[ltr]Harrison says that the Kurds participation in the war against al Daesh led to the influx of Western financial and military support, so that boosted hopes for an autonomous region in Syria, and an independent state in Iraq.[/ltr]
[ltr]And stamped "Alabzorfer" its report said that "the achievements of parallel, reflecting the increase in the Kurds confidence and strength, does not imply any steps to create an independent Kurdistan, there is no so great friendliness between the Iraqi Kurds and the group that leads the Kurdish forces in Syria. Even within Iraqi Kurdistan remains unity among the two main parties are fragile, ruling party and the opposition are locked in a civil war for decades, the economic crisis has lead to ignite old rivalries ".anthy 29 / tc n[/ltr]

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