Margaret Thatcher was spot on when she warned that Britain would not join the Euro for the covert maneuvers behind the scenes was to create the federalization of Europe – their real dream to be the United States of Europe. Thatcher was betrayed by her own cabinet because some members also were dreaming to federalize Europe.
Most people have no idea that the idea of creating the euro actually took place back in 1985 and was proposed as well as supported by the the United States. The idea was put forth at the Plaza Accord when the birth of the G5 was established. The idea was that the dollar was too high and that its strength was because it had emerged as the only major world currency. The idea was born that if Europe created a single currency, there would be a rival to the dollar. This was really hatched in France. Germany saw this as a means to an end to expand its own exports throughout Europe by eliminating the currency risk for its manufacture base. Make no mistake, the United States wanted a strong euro to reduce the US trade deficit. The participating countries were USA, Germany, France, Britain, and Japan.
People are generally unfamiliar with the timeline and assume the euro only began in 1999. Margaret Thatcher’s historic speech known as the “The Bruges Speech” was delivered on September 20, 1988. It was at that stage she was taking the position against the federalization of Europe supported at the Plaza Accord just in 1985.
I wrote to the White House objective to this currency manipulation back in 1985. The White House responded disagreeing with our forecast. “The volatility of the exchange rate is also cited as evidence of disarray in international financial markets. We do not believe this to be the case.” The dollar had risen to historic highs in 1985 driving the pound to $1.03, which had been over $7 during the US civil war and $4.86 below World War I.
Nonetheless, the White House disagreed since we were the only people with such a model warning that volatility would rise if they embarked on such a path or coordinated manipulation of currency markets. I was flat outright told back then that nobody else had such a model and until others agreed with our forecast, they could not rely upon a single model. We can see that forcing the creation of the euro has not relieved the long-term bull market in the dollar. All it has done is set the stage for a massive dollar rally as more and more countries being to move to try to exit the EU.
Of course, the volatility has been an integral part of the FOREX markets. The earliest we see for a major monetary reform on par with the 1985 Plaza Accord will arrive in 2018.895 or Friday, Nov. 9, 2018.
We must keep in mind that everything must move to an extreme. In doing so, that is what creates the political reaction. Nothing will change without the chaos. As they say: If is ain’t broken, don’t fix it.