The United States is preparing for the battle of the peak in Mosul
[rtl]Analysts are betting on Iraqi counter - terrorism forces
Helene Cooper REPOOC ENELEH Eric Schmidt TTIMHCS CIRE and Michael Gordon .R LEAHXIM NODROG / translation - Anis al -Saffar
as Iraqi and US forces poised to regain the city of Mosul from the grip of "Daesh" describes the Obama administration next battle as the last to overcome a major obstacle before declare victory on terrorists , extremists, in Iraq , at least.
but some former officials and humanitarian organizations worried that Obama is located in the same problem where his predecessor , "George W. Bush George W. Bush" occurred when a ground campaign without the preparation of a comprehensive detailed plan for what will happen after that.
Nasr said Wali, a former official in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in the Obama administration, that there is an attempt to declare mission accomplished. He adds that the restoration of Mosul would be a watershed moment undoubtedly defeat of symbolic value for the "Daesh", but the victory in Mosul without the detailed arrangements of how they will be managed by the city and county generally will not prevent terrorists from reappearing after a while, he said.
Although this does not Obama administration officials want to delay the process, which began to develop their perceptions of her two years ago, more than this to develop solutions prior political arrangements for the post - conflict phase in Mosul and itsenvirons. Preparing the US administration is now to ride a calculated risk on how toreshape the future of the area inhabited by synaptic mixture of ethnic and religious groups constituted peacefully in sync with the developments of the battle or even after defeating the terrorists , militants, where US officials as mediators whenever necessary but without imposing a specific plan.
Show all indicators that the battle for Mosul , will come in stages. Just as during therestoration of the city of Ramadi occurred in the month of December will Iraqi forces first surrounded the city and isolate it and then take to tighten the noose gradually in theprocess could take months. US forces in such a situation it would resort to maneuver pervasive to the heart of the city , as it did in its attack on Baghdad in 2003. But Iraqi forces, lacking the same level of field support, in particular medical service of high level, tend more to avoid the risk and take the time to carry out its operations.
in Qayyarah air Base, south of Mosul , about 60 kilometers Athacd twelve almost ten brigade each of which consists of between 800 and 1,600 troops. Peshmerga fighters aswell as contribute Kurdish, positioned to the north and east, in the isolation of the city.The final attack will be carried out by the Iraqi anti - terrorism elements he received training at the hands of US special forces, which is the best fighting force and the most professional and experienced forces. As well as participate in the attack formations of the Iraqi Federal Police and some army units. The
US military for its part will remain on standby to influence the course of the battle means a decisive effect styles. Fmrouhaat Apache armed with missiles "Hellfire" was a constant of hitting targets in northern Iraq, and the US and French Madfietin can be installed in positions that enable them to provide support. So was the commando elements Affiliates of special operations forces American militants in the northern areas of Iraq in this period.
Analysts estimate the US intelligence number "Daesh" fighters in Mosul between 3,000 and 4,500, and these mixture of Iraqi militants and foreign recruits who were continuously subjected to a torrent cascade coalition strikes from aircraft over the past seven months. Among the most prominent losses suffered by "Daesh" The death ofOmar Chechen who was considered one of the top commanders in the field to the group and who was killed with an air strike in the month of March in the town to the south of the city of Mosul.
Team , "Sean Mkavarln Sean MacFarland", which was the time says close commander in chief of US operations in Iraq and Syria, that "Daesh" gangs have reached the end of theroad which is facing difficulties in attracting new recruits because of the tightening ofborder controls on the part of Turkey. He adds Mkavarln: gangs "Daesh today are not like those of Mosul entered two years ago."
Although this is the Pentagon and its partners in the coalition promised to fight a tough battle against an enemy set up a network of tunnels permeated the city of Mosul, digging trenches and filled it with oil and the laying of explosives and bomb - density city made it more like a field of mines.
Obama 's aides say that the president would like to hand over his successor file "Daesh," in the Iraqi segment, which is on the right track as less appreciation if not entirely resolved.
supporters of the president says he does not want to leave his successor a terrorist threat such as the threat that faced him when he took office Adjutant General by al -Qaeda or the worst of that threat.
However, Iraq 's way of plans to confuse the most compact, so the president 's critics see another view. Says , "Eliot Cohen , Eliot A. Cohen", who was an adviser in the State Department in the Bush administration: "Suppose that the process produced a million refugees from Mosul, what would you do? I hope that the restored Mosul, but we learned anything in Iraq is that things are not taking place simply as you have you and loves. "
US military officials acknowledged that restoration of Mosul would not mean theelimination of the " state of Daesh "completely, because the Syrian tenderness City is astronghold of the foundation for this the group 's headquarters succession.
Gen. Mkavarln says: " the fall of Mosul will not be the end of the caliphate, but once the tenderness fell, those of succession Stft and ends."
represent Mosul, despite all its complexities, the opportunity in front of the White House is not available in Syria. After eight years at the Americans in Iraq during the Bush and Obama administrations they became well acquainted with the terrain flattened as they formed a large network of Iraqi bases are well insured , which can be used to provide assistance during the fighting. As well as the Americans in Iraq allied force of thousands of Iraqis and fighters of the Kurds , who have been trained at the hands of theAmericans.
Some officials are expected to withdraw fighters regulation from the eastern side of thecity, which Ahtrha Tigris River into two parts, and try to defend the western half if where government centers are located. The West Bank of the connector consists of narrow streets make a move tanks and artillery difficult. The
fundamental question here is who will hold the city and secured after the expulsion of"Daesh?"
First , there are factions of the popular crowd, a movement has a strong political influence in Iraq, but faced accusations of mistreatment of the men who fled from and around Fallujah during the fighting raged this year. So waiting for the Prime Minister Haider al - Abadi to entrust to these factions role keeps them out of the city guard against the occurrence of violations and problems.
There are also Kurds who have declared since now they will not send their troops into Mosul , once secured. As well as the United States does not support the government army remains inside the city for a period of more than required. As a
result of this will have to lay down the security burden on thousands of local police officers, including many not been trained yet, in addition to former officers who areinvolved in the Iraqi army after the attack , "Daesh "Mosul and should now be summoned again to join their units in the police service. There are also more than 20,000 man tribal fighters who trained Iraqi forces and the Peshmerga, and these also will be involved in gripping the security aspect.
Of the advantages of this plan , she took over the leadership to the local security forces, but this will mean also that one of the worst stages of the process sensitivity will beassigned to Khvavi - equipped fighters , not the United States any direct supervision ofthem.
the most important thing that worries critics is that there is no plan in Iraq , on how tomanage Mosul and surrounding areas in the province of Nineveh. This issue has raised concerns that lead restore the city to exacerbate tensions between the people of Mosul and the government in Baghdad, those tensions that fueled the "Daesh" originally.
While there were some anxious "Pentagon" there are others in the Obama administration say the assistance to be provided by States United will enable the Iraqis and Kurds andvarious other groups in Nineveh devise a political plan works , in part, to build bridges to some of the parties that do not feel reassured on its future, such as Novell Akub that followed Najafi as conservative.
However, the sharing of political spoils is not the only challenge , as relief organizations estimate that about 1.2 million people only had stayed out of the two million lived inMosul before the takeover "Daesh" on them. And humanitarian aid groups are suffering now due to overheating since continued its dealings with the restoration successively towns outside Mosul operations. Although the inhabitants of the city had received directives not to leave their homes , there remains a possibility that up to prepare fleeing civilians from combat zones to the hundreds of thousands. Some aid groups estimate that the number could reach nearly one million people during the restoration of the city battles, which will create a humanitarian challenge no matter what the United Nations and other organizations toward it says it does not have adequate preparations to deal with it . The
New York Times[/rtl]