Leafs need Andersen to bounce back in a hurry
By Travis Yost
In our Toronto Maple Leafs season preview, one of the things I pointed out was that last year’s team was structurally sound, but lacked the individual talent to turn increasingly favourable shot differentials into favourable goal differentials.
Part of the rub last season was that the team couldn’t buy a goal from their attackers. They shot a lowly 6.4 per cent at 5-on-5, good enough for dead last in the league. Mike Babcock made the point in the off-season that he thought the team would be better at turning those scoring opportunities into goals this time around, and so far, so good: the Leafs are shooting 12.3 per cent through the first three games of the year. Even if we conservatively estimate that they’ll be an average shooting team the rest of the way (roughly 7.6 per cent), that year-over-year increase will mean an awful lot of goals.
But the other side of the coin has also proved problematic. The Leafs, just like last year, have had substandard goaltending, and it’s arguably already cost them multiple points in the standings.
NHL: Maple Leafs 4, Jets 5 (OT)
Second overall pick Patrik Laine completed his first-career hat trick seconds after first overall pick Auston Matthews missed a breakaway in overtime, as the Jets rallied from four goals down to beat the Maple Leafs.
It raises an interesting question: How great does a team need to be from a skater level to offset porous goaltending? The answer isn’t very encouraging, and it illustrates why the Leafs need newly acquired Freddy Andersen to rebound quickly.
Let’s assume that the Leafs’ scoring prowess remains around league average for the entire season. Let’s also assume that the Leafs, by year end, will see about 3,800 shots on net either for or against – the average observed in the league last season.
The below goal differential forecast will show just how decisively the Leafs would have to control the shot clock in order to offset the kind of goaltending they’re getting right now. As you might have guessed, it’s a shockingly high threshold – life is extremely difficult when you are at a goaltending disadvantage on most nights.
If you’re curious where Toronto sits right now, draw your eyes to the 54 per cent shot differential (fantastic!) and 89.5 per cent save percentage (pretty terrible!). Even dominating possession wouldn’t be enough to offset that sort of stop rate, and the Leafs would likely end the season with a 5-on-5 goal differential of -27. In other words: not good enough for playoff consideration.
Assuming the Leafs received the same goaltending talent through an 82-game season, they’d need to control about 58-60 per cent of 5-on-5 play to have a shot at breaking even in the goal department. That’s a harrowing and basically impossible task, considering the number of teams who have accomplished such a feat (a) can be counted on one hand; and (b) were legitimately Stanley Cup contenders, the likes of which include Mike Babcock’s old Detroit Red Wings team, Darryl Sutter’s Los Angeles Kings, and Joel Quenneville’s Chicago Blackhawks.
The good news is that while the jury is still out on Andersen’s talent, our best bet wouldn’t be the 89.5 per cent save percentage the Leafs have posted so far this season. He’s actually been a shade above 92 per cent at 5-on-5 in his career. So, if we assumed that Andersen will favourably regress toward his historical averages and the Leafs will maintain the same shot control, they’d be 16 goals above average – which, more likely than not, will mean a playoff berth.
Long story short: The Leafs look great, except for the goaltending. And that’s a pretty massive problem. Time will tell if Andersen can rebound, but if status quo remains, the Leafs might be in trouble despite assembling a very competitive team.
By Travis Yost
In our Toronto Maple Leafs season preview, one of the things I pointed out was that last year’s team was structurally sound, but lacked the individual talent to turn increasingly favourable shot differentials into favourable goal differentials.
Part of the rub last season was that the team couldn’t buy a goal from their attackers. They shot a lowly 6.4 per cent at 5-on-5, good enough for dead last in the league. Mike Babcock made the point in the off-season that he thought the team would be better at turning those scoring opportunities into goals this time around, and so far, so good: the Leafs are shooting 12.3 per cent through the first three games of the year. Even if we conservatively estimate that they’ll be an average shooting team the rest of the way (roughly 7.6 per cent), that year-over-year increase will mean an awful lot of goals.
But the other side of the coin has also proved problematic. The Leafs, just like last year, have had substandard goaltending, and it’s arguably already cost them multiple points in the standings.
NHL: Maple Leafs 4, Jets 5 (OT)
Second overall pick Patrik Laine completed his first-career hat trick seconds after first overall pick Auston Matthews missed a breakaway in overtime, as the Jets rallied from four goals down to beat the Maple Leafs.
It raises an interesting question: How great does a team need to be from a skater level to offset porous goaltending? The answer isn’t very encouraging, and it illustrates why the Leafs need newly acquired Freddy Andersen to rebound quickly.
Let’s assume that the Leafs’ scoring prowess remains around league average for the entire season. Let’s also assume that the Leafs, by year end, will see about 3,800 shots on net either for or against – the average observed in the league last season.
The below goal differential forecast will show just how decisively the Leafs would have to control the shot clock in order to offset the kind of goaltending they’re getting right now. As you might have guessed, it’s a shockingly high threshold – life is extremely difficult when you are at a goaltending disadvantage on most nights.
If you’re curious where Toronto sits right now, draw your eyes to the 54 per cent shot differential (fantastic!) and 89.5 per cent save percentage (pretty terrible!). Even dominating possession wouldn’t be enough to offset that sort of stop rate, and the Leafs would likely end the season with a 5-on-5 goal differential of -27. In other words: not good enough for playoff consideration.
Assuming the Leafs received the same goaltending talent through an 82-game season, they’d need to control about 58-60 per cent of 5-on-5 play to have a shot at breaking even in the goal department. That’s a harrowing and basically impossible task, considering the number of teams who have accomplished such a feat (a) can be counted on one hand; and (b) were legitimately Stanley Cup contenders, the likes of which include Mike Babcock’s old Detroit Red Wings team, Darryl Sutter’s Los Angeles Kings, and Joel Quenneville’s Chicago Blackhawks.
The good news is that while the jury is still out on Andersen’s talent, our best bet wouldn’t be the 89.5 per cent save percentage the Leafs have posted so far this season. He’s actually been a shade above 92 per cent at 5-on-5 in his career. So, if we assumed that Andersen will favourably regress toward his historical averages and the Leafs will maintain the same shot control, they’d be 16 goals above average – which, more likely than not, will mean a playoff berth.
Long story short: The Leafs look great, except for the goaltending. And that’s a pretty massive problem. Time will tell if Andersen can rebound, but if status quo remains, the Leafs might be in trouble despite assembling a very competitive team.
Today at 7:23 am by Rocky
» Governor of Baghdad: 20 projects will be included during the current year in the city of Nahrawan
Today at 7:20 am by Rocky
» More than $242 million in central bank sales today
Today at 7:17 am by Rocky
» Advisor: Sudanese is determined to close the displacement file
Today at 7:14 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani: The implementation of the 2023 budget witnessed a success that must be invested in
Today at 7:13 am by Rocky
» The Baghdad Council will decide on the nomination of the committees in the coming days
Today at 7:10 am by Rocky
» Al-Samarrai: The Sunni community is not in favor of removing American forces
Today at 7:08 am by Rocky
» A warning from Al-Rasheed to those wishing to apply for advances and loans
Today at 7:06 am by Rocky
» Azerbaijan expresses its desire to participate in the implementation of joint projects in the oil an
Today at 7:05 am by Rocky
» Fuel cards arouse citizens' discontent
Today at 7:03 am by Rocky
» utube 3/18/24 MM&C Iraqi Dinar-- IQD-- Dinar Update -100% Electronic - Real Effective Exchange Rat
Today at 5:21 am by Rocky
» utube MM&C 3/16/24 0:05 / 18:16 Iraq Federal Court Brings - Strength to Financial - Politic
Today at 5:18 am by Rocky
» MM&C 3/18/24 Sudanese Advisor: Iraq will leave government monetary dealing in mid-2024
Today at 5:17 am by Rocky
» A delegation from the Kurdistan government visits Baghdad to discuss the issue of localization of sa
Today at 5:11 am by Rocky
» Director of the Central Oil Company: We are keen to provide the appropriate investment environment
Today at 5:10 am by Rocky
» The Energy Parliament calls for reporting generators violating government pricing
Today at 5:08 am by Rocky
» A representative reveals the fate of the laws of “previous sessions”
Today at 5:07 am by Rocky
» Politician: Coordination holds the keys to resolving the “Parliament Presidency” conflict
Today at 5:05 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani: Iraq wants to carry out its peaceful activity in the field of atomic energy
Today at 5:04 am by Rocky
» Including a minister and a parliamentarian... 38 arrest and recruitment orders were issued against t
Today at 5:02 am by Rocky
» Integrity: Citizens’ cooperation resulted in detecting inflation and returning state funds
Today at 5:01 am by Rocky
» Agriculture presents 97 projects to the Ministerial Council for the Economy
Today at 4:59 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani: We succeeded in implementing the 2023 budget, and we must continue to complete economic p
Today at 4:58 am by Rocky
» Labor adopts new mechanisms to reduce the phenomenon of begging
Today at 4:57 am by Rocky
» Electronically.. directing the collection of fees tomorrow in an Iraqi governorate
Today at 4:56 am by Rocky
» Held in Brussels.. Iraq receives an official invitation to attend the Nuclear Energy Summit
Today at 4:55 am by Rocky
» Kurdistan has been paralyzed. There has been no liquidity in hand for 50 days, and the truth has bee
Today at 4:53 am by Rocky
» The dollar continues to decline against the Iraqi dinar on the stock exchange and exchange offices
Today at 4:52 am by Rocky
» The Minister of Oil reveals the reasons for Shell’s withdrawal from Nebras: It will be divided into
Today at 4:51 am by Rocky
» The Housing Fund advises loan applicants and launches a link for inquiries
Today at 4:50 am by Rocky
» He stressed that the government’s vision is to make one class not exceed 25 students...Government me
Today at 4:48 am by Rocky
» Al-Hakim and Al-Halbousi stress the importance of choosing a speaker for Parliament in accordance wi
Today at 4:47 am by Rocky
» Iron and Steel Company: Iraq is on the verge of a major industrial revolution
Today at 4:46 am by Rocky
» Economists: Citizens still prefer cash transactions over electronic transactions
Today at 4:45 am by Rocky
» The compass of Iraq's foreign policy in a world of turbulent polarization
Today at 4:43 am by Rocky
» Parliamentary Finance: The federal budget is in the corridors of the Council of Ministers, and there
Today at 4:42 am by Rocky
» Integrity calls on citizens to report the inflation of funds in the sector of the Ministry of Labor
Today at 4:40 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani directs the launch of initiatives for young businessmen and investors
Today at 4:38 am by Rocky
» Representative agriculture emphasizes taking supportive measures for the local product
Today at 4:37 am by Rocky
» An economist calls on the government to support and stimulate the private sector
Today at 4:36 am by Rocky
» Al-Ittihad: Employees and retirees in Kurdistan paid the price of political differences with Baghdad
Today at 4:34 am by Rocky
» Al-Samarrai and Al-Hakim discuss the importance of achieving political and constitutional entitlemen
Today at 4:32 am by Rocky
» Only 23 million dunums. Iraq exploits approximately 50% of its arable land
Today at 4:30 am by Rocky
» Türkiye considers it a political issue.. Where have the negotiations reached regarding Iraq’s water
Today at 4:29 am by Rocky
» Sudanese receives an invitation to attend the Nuclear Energy Summit in Brussels - Urgent
Today at 4:27 am by Rocky
» Central Bank sales exceed $240 million today
Yesterday at 6:52 am by Rocky
» Parliamentary Finance calls on the government to expedite sending the 2024 budget to Parliament
Yesterday at 6:47 am by Rocky
» ‘We’re So Sick of It’: Northern Border Crisis Gets Worse
Yesterday at 6:35 am by Bama Diva
» A representative holds Kurdistan responsible for the faltering legislation of the oil and gas law
Yesterday at 5:27 am by Rocky
» Warnings of the danger of the increase in foreign labor in Iraq
Yesterday at 5:26 am by Rocky
» Iraq's oil exports to America decreased within a week
Yesterday at 5:25 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani chairs an “important” meeting to form the Kirkuk government
Yesterday at 5:23 am by Rocky
» Investment confirms the adoption of a new method in new residential cities and explains its details
Yesterday at 5:21 am by Rocky
» For the first time in 2024.. exchange rates fall to the threshold of 149 thousand in Baghdad
Yesterday at 5:19 am by Rocky
» Including gold.. An increase in exports of 3 Turkish products to Iraq during 2024
Yesterday at 5:18 am by Rocky
» A detailed integrity report regarding the Housing Fund... called for this matter
Yesterday at 5:17 am by Rocky
» Resources count the number of trespassers in Baghdad.. What about restaurants?
Yesterday at 5:16 am by Rocky
» At a cost of approximately two billion dinars... determining the completion rates achieved in the Ma
Yesterday at 5:15 am by Rocky
» Parliament awaits the “Cabinet of Ministers” law
Yesterday at 5:14 am by Rocky
» Provincial councils return after an absence with a heavy legacy
Yesterday at 5:13 am by Rocky
» Iraq is the axis and meeting point of East and West
Yesterday at 5:11 am by Rocky
» One million beneficiaries of health insurance early next May
Yesterday at 5:10 am by Rocky
» Parliamentary Finance: Delaying the budget had a negative impact on the performance of the ministrie
Yesterday at 5:09 am by Rocky
» The chaos of urban expansion threatens the agricultural character of Diwaniyah
Yesterday at 5:08 am by Rocky
» A project to plant Japanese trees in Erbil
Yesterday at 5:07 am by Rocky
» A team to prepare the national strategy for national security in Kirkuk
Yesterday at 5:06 am by Rocky
» Next Tuesday...concluding a contract to expand the basic design of the city of Mosul
Yesterday at 5:04 am by Rocky
» A festival to reduce food prices in Mosul
Yesterday at 5:03 am by Rocky
» Technical committees between Baghdad and Erbil to resume oil exports through Türkiye
Yesterday at 5:02 am by Rocky
» A model of economic diversification
Yesterday at 5:01 am by Rocky
» Variation in the extent to which Iraq was affected by the decision to reduce the credit rating of {T
Yesterday at 5:00 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani: Iraq has made a commitment to receive the entire security file from the Ministry of Inter
Yesterday at 4:58 am by Rocky
» The President of the Republic stresses the important role of Mr. Abdul Aziz Al-Hakim in the first st
Yesterday at 4:56 am by Rocky
» The Iraqi Center for Combating Rumors warns against social media celebrities misleading their follow
Yesterday at 4:54 am by Rocky
» Integrity investigates the work of the Housing Fund and indicates debts worth 56 billion dinars
Yesterday at 4:53 am by Rocky
» Agricultural associations in Karbala welcome the provincial council’s decision to prevent the fragme
Yesterday at 4:52 am by Rocky
» Free education lecturers demand that they be given job opportunities and contracts in Kirkuk
Yesterday at 4:51 am by Rocky
» The Digital Media Center calls for not browsing links published on a government page
Yesterday at 4:50 am by Rocky
» The President of the Republic confirms the strength of relations between Iraq and Italy
Yesterday at 4:48 am by Rocky
» A decline in Iraq's oil exports to America during the past week
Yesterday at 4:47 am by Rocky
» Economic researcher for / NINA /: Iraqi youth are qualified for the labor market and relying on them
Yesterday at 4:46 am by Rocky
» The Minister of Planning is following up on the Statistics Authority’s preparations to conduct the g
Yesterday at 4:45 am by Rocky
» 5 days after sending the money and the Kurdistan government has not paid the salaries...a political
Yesterday at 4:44 am by Rocky
» A political reading about Sudanese political concern.. Amending the election law is one of the attem
Yesterday at 4:42 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani to the Baghdad government: Pay attention to the outskirts of the capital, and drainage mus
Yesterday at 4:41 am by Rocky
» The Iraqi dinar recovers against the dollar in local markets
Yesterday at 4:39 am by Rocky
» Investment provides a summary of Bismaya units... and the new cities have “fixed prices” for the fir
Yesterday at 4:38 am by Rocky
» “Hidden commissions” on electronic fuel cards, contrary to what is advertised.. To whom does 100 mil
Yesterday at 4:37 am by Rocky
» Al-Hasnawi: The government is continuing to accelerate the completion and opening of lagging health
Yesterday at 4:36 am by Rocky
» Oil: The gasoline import file will be closed early next year
Yesterday at 4:35 am by Rocky
» “My account or your account”... a new problem behind the delay in the salaries of the region’s emplo
Yesterday at 4:34 am by Rocky
» Al-Sudani: Iraq is about to host important events and conferences
Yesterday at 4:33 am by Rocky
» In Erdogan's visit to Iraq...the path of development in exchange for water
Yesterday at 4:33 am by Rocky
» An American report on Washington’s seriousness in withdrawing from Iraq: Biden does not want to lose
Yesterday at 4:30 am by Rocky
» The organization is banned in Iraq.. Baghdad decides the fate of the Workers’ Party after 40 years o
Yesterday at 4:29 am by Rocky
» The rain exposes the poor quality of service projects and calls for the dismissal of officials and h
Yesterday at 4:28 am by Rocky
» Politician: Ankara needs Baghdad economically, and the path of development is Iraq’s trump card
Yesterday at 4:26 am by Rocky
» Economic calls to adopt a new philosophy for implementing strategic projects
Yesterday at 4:24 am by Rocky
» Al-Maliki: My alliance with Al-Sadr is possible, and the movement’s distance from it is an unhealthy
Yesterday at 4:23 am by Rocky