Saudi Historical and held towards Iraq
6/12/2016 0:00
[rtl]Adli Hussein Darwish
after Saudi Arabia failed to withdraw diplomatic experience Ambassador Sabhan, and thedeliberate abuse of the newspaper , the Middle East , Saudi Arabia against Iraqis, Altdilala media and disinterested in the war against Iraq a failure Saudi Daesh third in dealing with Iraq comes.
The question arises: With Saudi Arabia 's insistence on dealing with Iraq , according topolitical sectarianism and the media counter the logic of security and political penetration, see you could to Saudi Arabia to adopt a different approach to realistic and a new policy toward Iraq or stay Arabia hostage historic contract that characterized its policy towards Iraq since its inception until now?
Saudi Arabia regionally
there is no real development in the Saudi - Iraqi relations, and in my opinion , thehistoric moment has not ripened to start a new page in the Saudi - Iraqi relations ,despite the enormous changes in the Middle East , both in terms of changing theindignation or the growing influence and control of terrorist groups that threaten to engulf the region or political systems in the growing friction between the major regional strategies.
The Arab world, Saudi Arabia was the direct role of the major changes that haveaffected more than one country and redraw the map of their own political structure.Saudi policy has consisted neutralizing Iraq and Syria through Agrachma internally, and sought to contain the weight of Egypt financially, .. Apart from the privacy of the Omani and Qatari position, Saudi Arabia completed swallowed the Gulf Cooperation Council as a decision and the area of influence, and pushed strongly for re - political reality of theYemeni production militarily, .. This the figures are indicative of attempts by Saudi Arabia to lead the Arab region strategically subsidized economy of the caliber and quality ofunderstandings with the international decision - making centers to draw the geopolitical map of the region.
Currently, not Saudi compass of clear hostility to any of the strategies in the region but to the Iranian strategy, Valstrutajitan Saudi Arabia and Iran are leading the game now (with a Turkish diagonal role of taking the ebb gradually), and disputing Middle Eastern countries influence .. So Fmahrat upsurge in Saudi - Iran conflict are growing more than any ever, and it will be more than a yard collision point for both Alstrutacetin (Syria, Iraq, Yemen , specifically).
Saudi Arabia fears Iraq
over the long existential strategic, Saudi Arabia does not fear the emission of state Kkhchitha the emission of Iraq, Iraq is a strategic competitor and equivalents , which competes with Saudi Arabia , more than any Middle Eastern country the very core. I imagine, that the Saudi policy realized from the beginning that regional rival is Iraq specifically and not Iran that could be for Saudi Arabia to isolate a nationalist and sectarian, or Egypt , which could be for Saudi Arabia economically fit and impenetrable sectarian, or Turkey , which could be for Saudi Arabia to isolate nationally and historically, .. Iraq into Saudi Arabia is the problem and danger strategic because ofsectarian religious nationalism composition that Saudi Arabia sees it as the antithesis ofWahhabism of legitimacy that govern in its name, but its resources and natural reserves of the massive oil , which competes with Saudi Arabia economically, but its mass civilization and cultural quality, and its strategic link between the Arab-Muslim European worlds, so The founder of Saudi Arabia did not warn his children the risk of the state as Iraq, so recommended by the Iraq war.
General path of the Iraqi-Saudi relations
can not describe the Iraqi - Saudi relations less than being cautious tense and hostile since the emergence of a two - state Alhadittin at the beginning of the last century to thepresent day, .. relations have opened the raids that were launched by militias Wahhabism on Iraq, which was part of the expansion of the influence of Saudi Arabia on Iraqi territory account .. this lasted until the 1922 treaty , which has a British - brokered and which put an end to raids on Iraq , Saudi Arabia, which was approved by Iraq despite Ajuhavha Albin.
With a stable two - state structure of the conflict entered a new phase, as Iraq found himself in the midst of the conflict between the two families Alhakmtin Saudi Arabia and the Hashemite two disputing leadership on the Arabian Peninsula and the Levant and Iraq ( we must not forget to invite Crown Prince Iraqi Abdul Ilah here in the fifties of thelast century in which he called to form a royal Arab nationalism as a solution to the Arab nation .. rupture in a clear reference to the extension of the Hashemite royal family 'sinfluence on the Saudi royal family , which owns a major allergy to say that thelegitimacy of the Hashemite family throne of the Arabs) influence account.
Continued caution and suspicion prevailed in the Iraqi - Saudi relations even enter Iraq Republican era in 1958, he has not seen a remarkable development of relations only in the seventies of the last century through the demarcation of the borders of the neutral zone between Saudi Arabia and Iraq and the sharing of oil revenues, which came in favor of Saudi Arabia again.
With the victory of the revolution in Iran in 1979 moved Arabia regionally in two directions: first the establishment of the Gulf Cooperation Council in 1981 to fortify thearena Gulf toward Iran 's influence, and the second, Iraq 's pay for going to war with Iran, .. and so was able to Saudi Arabia to earn three points regionally: to contain theGulf under its umbrella strategy, distraction and weaken Iraq as a strategy, and trapping and containment of Iran 's regional influences. It is noticeable -arakie here - that Saudi Arabia at the time was supporting the regime of Saddam Hussein in his war against Iran , in absolute terms, but they did not allow him to join the Gulf Cooperation Council, a reading strategy for the future of Iraq , which should not be a competitor strategically to Saudi Arabia regionally under any circumstances.
With the fall of the dictatorship in 2003, Saudi Arabia read the arrival of Shiite rule in Iraq as a violation of the strategic balance in the region, and that penetrate to the nature of the Arab political system that constitutes Saudi Arabia the largest weight, and it expands the circle of Shiite influence regionally, painted its policy on this basis, and remained argument Arabia Btaivip new system fixed did not budge in its view and its political transition in Iraq, and did not take the initiative to help him re - produce itself, did not provide a real positive steps toward Iraq even in his support in the Arab and international or even drop the debt forums in compliance with the cycle (126) Arab foreign ministers in Cairo, which provided for under Iraq on private debts paragraph, namely: (emphasis on the speed of the member nations to cancel the debts owed by Iraq in implementation of paragraph 15 of the decision of the summit in Khartoum No. (340) dated 29/03/2006).
Saudi hostage historic decade ,
the Saudi modern - and sponsored by the English - the pairing of the family of Al -Saud and the Wahhabi sect, and worked on the religious factor doctrinal cornerstone based in the Kingdom of composition and survival and policies, and on this basis hasspent Arabia billions of dollars to strengthen the religious / sectarian influence as leader of the Muslim world.
The doctrine of oil and most workers do not accept these competition Saudis, they are at the forefront of the pillars of governance and influence, from here Arabia contributed to the weakening of most of the religious centers of gravity in the Sunni world (Al - Azhar , for example) to calculate the Wahhabi sect of oil and invested as a tool to market doctrine, and doctrine as a tool for marketing influence and domination strategy.Magazine has been published (Middle East Monetr- MidEast Monitor (June issue - July 2007 study documented and important former US ambassador to Costa Rica Academy (Curtin Windsor.) Lists (Windsor) on the tongue (Alexei Alixiv) during a hearing before a committee of the Senate Justice in session June 26 , 2003 that «Saudi Arabia has spent $ 87 billion over the past two decades to spread Wahhabism in the world», and it isbelieved that the level of funding has risen in the past two years due to high oil prices. being (Windsor) a comparison between this level of spending , including spent Communist party of the Soviet Union to deploy ideology in the world between 1921 and 1991 where he did not exceed $ 7 billion.
Iraqi, Saudi Arabia sees the composition of sectarian / Arab Sunni - Shiite threat to itslegitimacy sectarian Fmmahb Shi'ism and Shafi'i and Hanafi is an Iraqi prevailing on theHanbali school adopted by the Saudi Wahhabi school account, which is detrimental toputting internal and religious leadership, and fear of its effects on the internal structure of Saudi Arabia as a people diverse ideologically, and see it as also a contender for the level of leadership of the Arabs and Muslims , space, .. so One of the aspects of theconfrontation Arabia with Iraq 's political transition in 2003 represent a drop legitimacy by employing the difference sectarian Shiite - Sunni from On the other hand , point to try toextend the influence of the Wahhabi school to contain the Sunni sectarian diversity, to ensure the uniqueness of religious leadership without Arab
undisputed.
Oil, Iraq is equivalent oil of Saudi Arabia, with a reserve of Iraqi oil is about 10.7% of thetotal world reserves, reserve certainly some 112 billion barrels, and 80% of Iraq 's oil is still uncertain, with an estimated reserve is certainly up to 360 billion barrels (four times the reserve US oil). Iraqi oil and is characterized by the presence of all the fields in theland, so the costs of production is the lowest in the world ranging between 0.95 and $ 1.9 per barrel, compared to the cost of producing a barrel of North Sea up to ten dollars.In Iraq , oil all types of light, medium and heavy, in addition to the expertise and cadres of oil proven globally.
The emergence of Iraq as an oil either on production or oil industries level undermine the dominance of Saudi and influence at all levels, at the domestic level the fact that theSaudi economy , the economy of yield, and at the regional level , the fact that thepolitical leadership is based on the financial leverage derived from Airadt oil, and at theinternational level through the damaged prestige oil major as a leader able to impose their vision on many international issues.
On the level of gravity of civilization, Vllarac weight of civilized qualitative nominated for playing a strategic role can not be Saudi Arabia 's rival , under any circumstances, Fmgah historical batsman foot, and his legacy of cultural, creative artistic and cultural, geographical location, natural resources , and its stock ... the whole force lacks Arabia in the balance of gravity civilized strategic factors regionally and internationally.
The three - : ethnic composition / sectarian and oil gravity cultural determinants of Saudi policy toward Iraq , regardless of the nature of the state and the type of government in Iraq, it is the determinants compete for the presence and influence of strategic influence that accept flexibility here and there , but they do not accept the waiver In total.
Saudi policy toward Iraq has
exercised Arabia vague policy tinged escalation against the political transition in Iraq since 2003, and entered into force on sectarian political line and thorny security. Saudi policy has gone two parallel tracks in the Iraqi arena, the first attempt to reproduce thetraditional Iraqi state , which collapsed in 2003 a long - term goal, and secondly tomaintain the compatibility of ethnic and sectarian temporary solution to ensure thesurvival of its influence sectarian-political in Iraq.
With the geopolitical changes in the region, are likely to continue Saudi policy in two directions: first, to strengthen its influence in Iraq to ensure the survival of the Iraqi experience is concerned is stable at the level of the state structure. The second is toaccelerate its strategy unzip the Iranian axis - Syrian - Lebanese through topple thepolitical system in Syria and turn them into loyal to Saudi Arabia to offset the Iraqi political bloc political bloc.
Another trend needs to change the qualitative vision of strategic Arabia toward Iraq governed to this moment , three of contract, are: to help Iraq create a model state strategic balance capable of restoring balance and equilibrium to the Middle East as abarrier Algiumajtmaa and geopolitical among the nations of sovereign three are Arab, Iranian and Turkish.
State of the strategic balance
Iraq is currently under low Giostrateja Saudi Iranian Turki, due to the fragile structure and division Aerqtaivi and the spread of terrorism, chaos and differing visions and the wills of the ruling political elites to reproduce it as a state. With the survival of this situation for what it is, any talk about Iraqis option determines the strategic policy toward regional strategies is pure fiction.
I go back and repeat here, that the current historical moment put everyone in front ofchoices and tests the survival of the Iraqi state , or collapse and be swallowed by thechaos system or the agendas of the major strategies, .. and the lowest look strategy intact for the future of the region and the world that it should Incorporation's (State of thestrategic balance): a state model Iraqi player to the role of regional balance andeffective, including Iraq qualifies to be the strength of a fourth Strategy is a comma and balancing the major regional strategies. The effective balance means ( the Iraqi state and national civil powerful politically, economically and militarily able to maintain apositive balance between the strategies in the region), and other than that, the deluge falls sectarian Iraqi political disasters wash away the entire region, and will be the first victims of Iraq 's neighbors.
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