Search found 153 matches for 1

COMMENT #1:  Regarding your post Currency vs Language, I wanted to add that in NY I have an abundance of IT co-workers that are H1-B visas holders working as consultants from India. They are extremely nice and I’ve enjoyed learning about their culture. As I’ve stated before, these consults overwhelmingly supported Hillary Clinton. Some of the consultants were naturalized and voted for Hillary. People from India are social and they often gather and speak among themselves; therefore, as more before naturalized and vote, you can expect more Democrat voters. With regard to language, they’ve confirmed to me that they speak their India state language at home, not English. You are correct, even in NY, “If that subculture then becomes the majority, the culture of the state will change and therein lies the seed …”
COMMENT #2: The Xi Jinping article about the coming new world order, in it you provide a good explanation of why we think linearly and they think cyclically. My explanation lies along the lines of religious background. Even if/when people leave the confines of religion, the subconscious thought remains. I believe that we think linearly because our religion teaches us that things begin and end. They think cyclically because their religion teaches them that things begin and end and then begin again and end again.
COMMENT #3: Hi Martin, I appreciate the work you do and making your blog available for free. I thought you might like to know that Canada is also moving toward a cashless society. Yesterday I went into Scotia Bank and tried to buy foreign currency. I offered them cash and they refused it. They told me that the money had to be paid by cash transfer. Because I didn’t have an account with them I could not buy the foreign currency. The Canadian banking system is primitive compared to New Zealand and Australian banks where I have also lived. Another bank would not allow me transfer money online from my own bank to a relative’s bank account at their bank. I would have to personally go into their bank and only they could request the money for me, and of course, charge me $30!
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/qa/comments-observations-of-readers/

i have a few questions about this. #1 how does one person have that kind of power, to dictate how every child in this country can and cannot eat. #2 since when does the government have the right to dictate what parents want their kids to eat? my wife was a cafeteria manager for a local high school for 5 years, she quit about a month ago. she used to bring dinner home every day from school, of course she paid for it. in all those years i never had but maybe 2 things she brought home that i didn't eat, and that's because i just didn't like it anyway. then , along comes this michelle bi otch and suddenly,it's all inedible. i saw more wasted food than you could imagine and all for nothing except it was sub standard and just slop. thank god almighty it is going away.

Previewing the Patriots’ competition in the AFC Divisional round

The New England Patriots clinched a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs this winter with their 35-14 win on the road in Miami on Sunday. As such, they join the Kansas City Chiefs on the sidelines this coming weekend watching the AFC Wild Card round on television.
AROUND COVER32
Power Rankings: Playoff addition
QB Rankings:: Who’s riding highest into the playoffs?
Winners and Losers:: Who came out on top to open up 2017?
Patriots’ News: Congratulations Edelman on accomplishment
Patriots’ News: Pats’ Weekly: A weekend in front of the TV for the Pats
Patriots’ News: Lippett meets Floyd and the Pats
With the seeding set, the #3 seed AFC North champion Pittsburgh Steelers host the #6 seed Miami Dolphins and the #4 seed AFC South champion Houston Texans host the #5 seed Oakland Raiders.
With a rematch of the Dolphins 30-15 win in Week 6, as the highest seed, the Steelers will play Kansas City if they win. If Miami wins, they return to Foxboro to play the Patriots for a third time this season.
Houston (possibly without promoted starter Tom Savage) takes the place of the Indianapolis Colts as the requisite cupcake from the AFC South. However, the Raiders–down to rookie third-string quarterback Connor Cook last week after an injury to back-up Matt McGloin (filling in for starter Derek Carr who broke his leg)–have gone from potential #1 seed to on the road in the first round.
To simplify, the teams are broken into three categories: Likely to play next week (Houston or Oakland), unlikely to play next week (Miami), impossible to play before AFC Championship game (Kansas City and Pittsburgh):
LIKELY TO BE VISITING FOXBORO:
Houston Texans:
The Texans played the Patriots already in 2016 in with a hobbled J.J. Watt right before he ended his season on injured reserve with a back injury. The New England 27-0 thrashing of the Texans in Week 3 on Thursday night dealt Houston their first loss of the season as rookie quarterback Jacoby Brissett won in his first NFL start.
After two decent performances to open the season, Brock Osweiler was exposed before the nation as mediocre. For the season, Osweiler completed just 59% of his passes for 2,957 yards with 15 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. Osweiler is starting by default due to Tom Savage being sidelined by a concussion and Savage may be back if they make it to New England.
In the first game, the Patriots draped cornerback Malcolm Butler over wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins and challenged the Texans to outscore them throwing to tight end Ryan Griffin and wide receiver Will Fuller. The results were as mediocre as expected.
Former Miami Dolphins running back Lamar Miller rushed 21 times for 80 yards but the bend-but-don’t-break defense watched the Texans punt six times, turn the ball over three times and have three drives end on failed fourth-down conversions.
The Texans are an odd playoff team winning the division with a 9-7 record while being outscored by their opponents by 49 points and with the 28th ranked offense. They host the 12-4 Oakland Raiders and their 20th ranked defense. As hard as it is to believe, the Texans could actually pull out a win and travel to New England for the divisional round.
Oakland Raiders:
Oakland was cruising along this season riding the strong arm of quarterback Derek Carr jumping out to an 11-3 record before Carr broke his fibula in Week 16 against Indianapolis. Instead of competing for the number one overall seed, the Raiders dropped their Week 17 game as back-up quarterback Matt McGloin injured his shoulder and gave way to third-string rookie Connor Cook in the loss to Denver.
The loss dropped Oakland out of the bye week and number two seed down to going to Houston as the fifth seed. Cook is expected to start the game at Houston. While not a great option, he is blessed with arguably the NFL’s best pass blocking offensive line in front of him.
The Raiders still have a strong offense with running backs Latavius Murray, DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard leading the NFL’s sixth best rushing offense. The Raiders have dynamic wide receiver Amari Cooper and veteran Michael Crabtree giving them two 1,000 yard receivers.
Defense is the issue in Oakland although they showed improvement in the second half of the season. After getting lit-up by New Orleans and Atlanta in the first two games of the season, they have slowly improved. Outside linebackers Khalil Mack and Bruce Irvin are a dynamic duo of quarterback pressure and have 18 of the team’s 25 sacks.

In the secondary, veteran safety Reggie Nelson leads the team with five interceptions and cornerbacks Sean Smith and David Amerson are a solid duo of starters but the loss of 2013 first-round draft pick cornerback D.J. Hayden to injury this month hurts. Hayden was having his best season after transitioning to the third cornerback role defending in the slot.
Oakland is a flawed team with horrendous injury issues at quarterback. Had Carr stayed healthy, they would likely be joining the Patriots on the bye week. They are the most likely to travel to New England for the Divisional Playoff game as even on the road they should have enough talent on both sides of the ball to beat the Texans.
UNLIKELY…JUST SAW YOU–GO AWAY:
Miami Dolphins:
Does anyone in New England really want to see Miami come back north to Foxboro for the second time this season for another game after the Patriots defeated them with and without Tom Brady? Yes, it is very difficult to beat a team three times in one season but New England outscored them 66 to 38 in two games.
In addition, the Dolphins have to travel to Pittsburgh to face the Steelers. Yes, Miami defeated the Steelers 30-15 in Week 6, but the Steelers’ defense was in a bad place at that time and Roethlisberger was clearly hobbled.
Miami looks a lot like the 2015 New York Jets right now: they are a .500 team who took advantage of an easy schedule this year and pulled out a number of close games. They beat Cleveland in overtime, Buffalo by three points twice (once in overtime), Arizona by three points, the Rams by four points, the Jets by four points and the 49ers by a touchdown. Seven of their ten wins were by seven or less points–games which could have gone either way.
Miami had a lot to play for at home versus New England last week and were dominated early and late with only a brief sign of life around halftime. A playoff team fighting for the fifth seed and a match-up against Houston instead of Pittsburgh showed little fire at home generating just 280 yards of offense and falling behind 20-0 before losing 35-14.

The Dolphins figure to be a longshot to go into Pittsburgh and win.

Oilers a one-man team? As Draisaitl & Sekera's play shows, that's a tall tale


The Edmonton Oilers roar into the New Year with two No. 1 centres leading the way, Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid. That’s a luxury few other teams can boast, but it’s fuelled the rise of the Oilers this year, along with a much improved blueline featuring players like Andrej Sekera, Adam Larsson, Kris Russell and Matt Benning. Here the the January 1, 2017 power rankings on the team:

Andrej Sekera, ⇔. Sekera’s underlying scoring chance numbers are far and away the best I’ve ever seen for an Oilers d-man playing tough minutes since I started this project in 2010-11. He’s a big part of the reason this team is winning. Before he missed the last few games with the flu, Sekera was playing like a real live #1 NHL d-man, doing well in all aspects of the game, even strength, power play and short-handed. Sekera had been playing about 24:00 minutes per game and had 11 points in 12 games. Let’s hope his flu isn’t one of those doozies that set you back forever, because his strong play in tough spots was taking the pressure off every other Oiler d-man on the blueline. 
Cam Talbot, ⇑2. He plays almost every game, has a .919 save percentage, has won 18 of 34 decisions and rarely lets in a bad goal, the kind that sucks the life out of team. 
Patrick Maroon,⇑3. Put him on any line, he hits hard, makes plays and makes those around him better. He’s earned a good, long shot on a line with McDavid, not that Maroon needs it, as he was playing well with others. But it would be swell to find the perfect mix on the Oil’s very top line.
Kris Russell, ⇑9. He skates, he hits, he gambles, he loses some, but he wins most, so much so that cutting edge analytics expert Brad Werenka, a former NHLer, says Russell is “drastically under-rated” and one of the top defensive d-men in the league. We already know what coach Todd McLellan thinks of Russell, as no Oilers players gets more even strength time on ice per game. But this isn’t a hard case like Justin Schultz who got all that ice for years and struggled on a struggling team. Instead Russell is doing fine on a team trending up. Most recently he has performed well enough partnered with young Matt Benning in one of the game’s toughest roles, filling in for sick Sekera as the team’s No 1 d-man. His underlying scoring chances numbers show a solid enough second-pairing d-man, a decent NHLer.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, ⇑5. At long last McLellan gave RNH the break he needed, taking him off a checking line and putting him with two strong attackers in Draisaitl and Patrick Maroon. Almost instantly RNH has looked like the Nuge of old, fast and tricky on the attack, sharp on defence. It’s clear that RNH is not now and is unlikely to ever be a major offensive driver who can carry a line, but he’s good enough to more than hold his own on a line with other good players. So there he should remain, though that leaves a hole at No. 3 centre for the Oilers.
Adam Larsson,⇓1. As Werenka describes it, on a NHL defensive pairing you will sometimes find a troublemaker and a cleaner, one d-man who makes a lot of mistakes and another d-man charged with trying to clean up those errors. This year the inconsistent Oscar Klefbom has struggled to stop attackers on his side of the ice, so his partner Larsson has been asked to that cleaner-type d-man. Larsson hasn’t always got the job done either. But when Klefbom is on a good run of play, Larsson has looked great. He’s a nasty shut-down guy on his own side of the ice and can move the puck safely, though not spectacularly. As the year has gone along, Larsson’s underlying scoring chance numbers have trended up, something we saw with Sekera and Eric Gryba last year as they settled into their new team.
Milan Lucic,⇓4. He’s meshing well enough with McDavid, been a physical force in some games and showed both skill and toughness on the power play. His best fit, though, might be with Draisaitl, as Looch is a big winger who can go into the corners, win the puck and feed Drai in the slot.
Brandon Davidson, ⇑4. A skilled, tough, smart NHL d-man who only needs a run of good health. He has improved pretty much every game since he got back in the line-up and is close to playing at the high level he did last year when all the underlying numbers including own scoring chances metric saw him having a home-run of a rookie season. If Davidson stays healthy he may find a way to beat the odds again and make himself so valuable that the Oilers find a way to keep in the upcoming Vegas expansion draft. 
Matt Benning, ⇓2. It’s not easy when a young d-man is asked to suddenly play tough minutes. Benning has had a few shaky moments since Sekera got sick and he was teamed with Russell, but he’s holding his own. On the third-pairing, the kid has crushed it all year long.
Eric Gryba, no rating. His game blew up good against Vancouver, with major mistakes on both Vancouver goals, but before then Gryba was playing the best hockey of his Oilers career, hitting hard and moving the puck well. As seventh d-men go, it’s hard to beat Gryba.
Mark Letestu,⇓3. He continues to do everything asked of him as a checker and occasional scorer. Might be an idea to call-up gritty Anton Lander and give both him and Matt Hendricks a game off now and then.
Jordan Eberle,⇑4. For a guy getting regular minutes with McDavid, he’s not getting it done. I keep expecting him to break out but something still seems missing. Needs to play with both more gusto and confidence, especially when it comes to taking the puck hard to the net. We’ve seen him make that daring move to the net in the past. Where is it this year? His underlying numbers are OK, but unspectacular for a winger getting so much ice with McD, and they are nothing close to his outstanding metrics last year with McDavid.
Jesse Puljujarvi, ⇑5. He has been used more the last few games and has played with his usual skill and hustle. I don’t see many veteran wingers on the Oilers more deserving of ice-time. If I were King of the Oilers, I’d play him with McDavid for five games. If he doesn’t get it done, and there’s no room for him getting 13 or 14 minutes per game on the third line, then send him to Bakersfield. But Puljujarvi sitting — or dressing and not playing much — is a bad idea, as has been noted by countless Oilers fans by now. It’s one of the top complaints about the team this year from fans.
Zack Kassian, ⇑1. Had a huge moment in a big game, standing up for his linemate Matt Hendricks against Arizona after Oliver Ekman-Larsson violently smashed Hendricks into the boards. Kassian responded instantly, giving Ekman-Larsson as good as he gave. It was the kind of physical pushback Oilers fans have craved to see for years. As a player, Kassian is inconsistent, but often makes a positive difference with his hitting, skating and skill. 
Oscar Klefbom,⇓6. It looks like coming back from his injury — and his own learning curve as a young d-man — are presenting some major challenges. This isn’t at all unexpected, of course. It’s the way it goes with young d-men. But Klefbom is nonetheless on a skid and the underlying numbers speak of a need for rapid intervention. In the first 22 games, Klefbom made 13 major contributions to Grade A scoring chances and 25 major mistakes on Grade A scoring chances against, a decent rate for defenceman, given their limited offensive opportunities and major defensive responsibilities. Klef was -12 Grade A scoring chances in those 22 games, not bad for a player facing tough competition regularly. In the past 16 games, however, Klefbom has contributed to just four Grade A chances and made mistakes on 29 against, -25 in that run. Ouch! But nothing a steady diet of softer competition can’t fix. When Sekera returns how about Klefbom and Benning on the third pairing? Sekera and Larasson can handle the tough competition, with Russell and Davidson on the second pairing. Make sense?
Matt Hendricks,⇑6. He’s battled his way back into the affections of the hockey mob. He’s a tough-checking hombre two out of three games, but could use a rest every third game. The will is there, but the wheels aren’t always.
Benoit Pouliot,⇓6. Meh. That said, Pouliot’s awfulness is over-stated. His underlying scoring chance numbers are OK, though they indicate he’s playing more of a perimeter game than last year. If he wants to win his way back into the Top 6, he’s got to play with more intensity, especially when it comes to handing out hard checks. 
Drake Caggiula, ⇓1. In the last few games he’s started to flash more of his skill. He also plays with a bit of an edge. Most games, however, he’s struggled to hold his own, though if RNH, Draisaitl and McDavid are all on the top two lines, Caggiula may get an extended run here at 3C. Me, I’d like to see Lander and Jujhar Khaira also given another shot.
Jonas Gustavsson,⇑2. Coach doesn’t much trust Gamblin’ Gus. I suspect he’ll get another chance or two before the Oilers make the change to a different back-up. 

INJURED: Tyler Pitlick, Darnell Nurse

Cover32-Dallas Predicts Cowboys-Eagles Week 17

Matt Urben (5-3)
This is the kind of game you can throw stats and records out the window. A meaningless NFC East showdown between two teams with deep-rooted hatred for each other. Will the Cowboys even play to win? Will pride kick in for this sub .500 Eagles team because they get a chance to end the season on a high note? It’s anyone’s guess, but I think both teams will find it hard to turn off their competitive juices. Whoever is out there, including possibly even Tony Romo, the Cowboys will fight for. I expect another good game for Eagles QB Carson Wentz but not enough to stop the Cowboys from getting their fourteenth win. Prediction: Cowboys-27-Eagles 24.
Anthony Iosso (6-2)
With the #1 seed in the NFC and home field throughout the playoffs locked up already, the Dallas Cowboys have very little to play for this week as they take on division rival Philadelphia Eagles. Banged up starters such as Tyron Smith, Morris Claiborne and Tank Lawrence will not even suit up for the game while other starters are only expected to see limited action.The real intrigue may come in the form of whether or not we will see Tony Romo take the field for the first time since last Thanksgiving.
Adam Schefter reported yesterday that the Cowboys have planned for #9 to see some game action. While it is tough to judge the motivation factor for both teams leading up to the 1 p.m. kickoff, I still believe Jason Garrett and staff will have the entire Cowboy team prepared and ready to play. Give me Dallas 20-17 with Darren McFadden acting as the catalyst. Prediction: Cowboys-20, Eagles-17.
AROUND COVER32
QB Rankings: Who’s rising as the temperatures are falling?
NFL Mailbag: Out goes Osweiler, in comes Savage
Winners and Losers: Christmas came early for several teams this weekend
Ryan Johnson (5-3)
With the recent news of Tony Romo playing a few series on Sunday, the non-meaningful week 17 just became must-watch for Cowboys Nation. Unfortunately, Romo will be thrown to the wolfs as very few if any starters will be on the field with him. I still expect Mark Sanchez to see the majority of the snaps on Sunday. I expect Dallas to win. Prediction: Cowboys-21, Eagles-17.
Yusuf Nakhooda (8-1)

For the Cowboys regular season finale, this is a meaningless game, but expect the Cowboys to play Dak Prescott, and Ezekiel Elliott maybe for one half, and we should see both Tony Romo, and Mark Sanchez play. The key to stopping the Eagles is Darren Sproles. If the Cowboys can do that they should win even with key starters resting. Prediction: Cowboys-31, Eagles 21

QUESTION #1: Dear Mr Armstrong, you recently wrote that if you are in any bond fund, better get out. Do you also mean corporate short-term/medium-term bonds or are those expected to rise when people realise government debt is the real bubble ?
Kind regards.
WL.
QUESTION #2:  Mr. Armstrong- I enjoyed my first WEC immensely! In the blog and other place’s you warned that you should get out of bond funds. I understand government bonds of all kinds should be sold including date certain and funds. I am curious though about high-quality corporate bond funds. Should one get out of corporate bond funds and move to individual issues? The funds are easier for a working person of course.
Thank you,
KO
ANSWER: We are entering a phase of rising interest rates, so bond funds will do poorly. We are not yet at a stage where U.S. government bonds would default or be swapped. Therefore, my recommendation has only to do with rising rates. What you should do is stay short-term, like 90-day paper or less, be it corporate or government. This is just an interest rate play moving into 2018.
As we move into 2018, we will look at corporate vs government shift. That will become the play, but that will most likely unfold after we begin to see serious problems with government debt outside the United States. In Japan, the ownership of public debt by the private sector is in freefall. Debt to GDP held by the private sector before Abe came to power was 177%, which had collapsed to 100% in 2012, and has continued to decline to about 75%. The Bank of Japan through its quantitative easing now owns more government debt than the private sector. Japan is in VERY SERIOUS trouble and there is no possible way to reverse this nightmare.
The European Central Bank now holds 15% of Germany’s national debt. The central banks have been running out of positive-yielding safe-haven bonds. Yes, the Federal Reserve holds $2.4 trillion is less than 10%. The volume of repo loans using Treasury debt as collateral has collapsed from $2.6 trillion to about $1.8 trillion according to Barclays.
Despite all the complaints that QE has failed, we must ask how deep deflation would be without it. True, QE has not produced inflation. It has not stimulated the economies of Europe or Japan because the confidence of the people is not there. The central banks are trapped and politicians, not hedge fund managers, run government. These people are ignorant at best if not outright deaf, dumb, and stupid. They cannot see how this system of government borrowing will continue if the public no longer buys their debt.
This is by no means going to end nicely. So keep the power dry. We are in for a real crisis come 2018.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/bonds/bonds-funds-beware/

Back-to-Back Arctic Blasts Sending Midwest, Northeast into a Deep Freeze Through the Weekend

Chris Dolce
Published: December 15, 2016
A bitter cold arctic air mass has swept through a large swath of the central and eastern states to close out the workweek, sending wind chills into the teens, 20s and 30s below zero in some locations. Extreme cold will continue this weekend as an even more frigid blast of arctic air plunges into the central states on the heels of Winter Storm Decima.
(MORE: Another Winter Storm in the Midwest)
Some locations have seen or could see their coldest December temperatures in several years, and some record lows may be threatened. 
(MORE: What the Wind Chill Really Means)

Current Wind Chills

Arctic Cold Round #1: Through Friday

Current Temperatures

Forecast Morning Lows

Cold Perspective

• Boston: A low of 8 degrees or colder would be the lowest official December temperature in the city since 2004.
  
• Pittsburgh: The first single-digit December low temperature since Dec. 31, 2009 (9 degrees), is possible Friday morning.
  
• Washington, D.C.: A low in the teens Friday morning would be the first time the mercury has dipped below 20 degrees there in December since Dec. 23, 2008. 
  

Arctic Cold Round #2: This Weekend

Forecast Highs This Weekend

• Lows: Temperatures in the teens and 20s below zero will infiltrate areas from Montana to the Dakotas and the upper Mississippi Valley this weekend. In some locations, this will be 20-45 degrees below mid-December average lows. Single digits below zero may surge into the Front Range of Colorado, Kansas, northern Missouri and northern Illinois on Sunday morning. By Monday morning, lows in the teens and single digits below zero could continue the Great Lakes and upper Mississippi Valley.
  
• Highs: Afternoon readings may not rise above zero in the northern Plains, upper Midwest and western Great Lakes this weekend, including Minneapolis and Fargo, North Dakota.
  
• This round of arctic air will move into the Northeast early next week, but it won't be as cold as we will see in the Midwest.
  

Forecast Low Temperatures Compared to Average Sunday

Cold Perspective For This Weekend

• Chicago: There is a chance that the Windy City may see a subzero high temperature on Sunday. The last high temperature that was below zero there was in January 2014. The last below-zero high temperature there in December was in 1983.
  
• Bismarck, North Dakota: Saturday's high may be in the teens below zero. The last time they recorded a high in the double digits below zero in December was 2008. They haven't had a high in the teens below zero in any month since January 2010.
  
• Minneapolis: If the mercury plunges into the 20s below zero, that would be the first time it's happened there in December since 1996. The last 20s below zero in the Twin Cities for any month occurred in January 2014.
  

Will Any Record Lows Be Set?

• Saturday: Bismarck, North Dakota (-27 degrees); Omaha, Nebraska (-9 degrees)
  
• Sunday: Aberdeen, South Dakota (-28 degrees); Minneapolis (-24 degrees)
  
• Monday: Chicago (-14 degrees); Detroit (-6 degrees)