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Part IV-Does the Second Half of Season Have Canes Primed for Playoff Run?
January 11, 2017, 5:47 PM ET [1 Comments]
Ben Case
Carolina Hurricanes Blogger •
I am switching things up—I know I promised Part IV would be on who I thought the Canes should trade for today and then Part V was going to be review of everything. However, I think that looking at last night’s win and the mid-point of the season flows more naturally for an “intro” to why it is time for the Canes to make a move. I will be releasing the trade list (Part V) tomorrow in the late morning or early afternoon—sorry for switching it up on you all!
So today we are continuing with Part IV in a Five-Part Series: The first one looked at the common misconception that goaltending is the primary reason for the Canes struggles this season. The second article evaluated what I believed to be the most concerning issues surrounding the Canes currently. . Finally, Part III looked at the Canes roster, expendable components and what the expansion draft could bring.
As of last night, the Canes have completed the first half of their season after defeating the Blue Jackets 5-3. To say the least, the Canes continue to be one of the most dominant teams at home (despite the lowest attendance in the NHL) and are now 12-1-1 in their past 14-home games. The results on home-ice have allowed the Canes to climb to three points behind the Flyers for the final wild-card spot with two games in hand.
The win over Columbus was huge not just because they beat the top team in the NHL. This win was significant because it marked the first time that the Canes beat a Metro division team since November 12th in a 5-1 home win over the Capitals. After that win, the Canes lost their last five match-ups against Metro competition and left many points on the table.
Looking at the Canes performances against each division, it is obvious this season the one “sore spot” has been their ability to win games in the Metro division. This isn’t a knock on the Canes either, as the Metro is easily and indisputably the toughest division in the NHL. When you look at the Canes success against each NHL division, the Metro just glares out: 3-7-2(Metro), 8-4-2 (Atlantic), 4-3-2 (Pacific) and 4-1-1 (Central).
Furthermore, four of the top five teams in the NHL right now based on points are sitting in the Metro—CLB, PIT, WSH and NYR. The reason that it is time for the Canes to address their roster needs is because 18 of the final 41 games are against Metro opponents. Beyond that, 12 of those Metro games are against teams that are currently sitting in play-off position and nine are against CLB, PIT, WSH and NYR.
If the Canes are golfing in April, the performance against divisional foes will most likely be one of the key factors determining their fate. Obviously, looking at their first 12 Metro games this season, one could logically conclude the odds of performing better are not in their favor. However, I disagree and think that the Canes are positioned to have a very successful second half.
While the Canes do have 18 games remaining against Metro opponents, there are some positive things to consider heading into the second half. The most positive portion of the remaining schedule has to be the five games against the Islanders—this could be a great opportunity to pick up a slew of points and climb the standings too.
Beyond that, if you look at the bottom two teams in each division, NYI (5), NJD(1), DET(2), BUF (1), COL (2), DAL (2), VAN (0) and ARI (2), the Canes will play 15 games total. Thus, 37% of the remaining games are against teams that are bottom two teams in their respective division. The best news is that nine of those 15 games are against the three worst teams in the NHL—NYI, COL and ARI. If the Canes improved their roster, these could be some serious points for them.
Looking more into it, the Canes currently will play 21 games against teams that are not in play-off position right now. If the Canes were to jump the Flyers though, that total goes to 24 of the final 41 games against non-play-off teams since they have three games against the Flyers remaining.
Given the Canes have two games in hand on the Flyers, three match-ups against them and then 15 games against teams in the bottom two of their respective divisions, one can easily see that the playoffs are definitely obtainable. Thus, of those 24 games broken down above, 18 are against bottom two divisional teams and the Flyers—wow. Oh, did I mention who the Canes final game is against:you guessed it, the Flyers.
Why are these 24 games against very winnable opponents huge—well the most recent projection predicts the final Eastern Conference play-off team will have 92.5 points, so let’s obviously round to 93 (since half points don’t exist in hockey). Currently, the Canes have 45 points and I personally think that this roster has the capability of winning 80% of those 24 games. Thus, if they won 19 (80%) of those 24 match-ups, they then would have 83 points.
Based on this, the Canes would theoretically only need to win five of their remaining 17 games against teams currently projected to make the playoffs. Honestly, I see them winning more than five of those 17, thus, giving them more room for error in the 24 mentioned above. Breaking down these 17 games, nine are against the top four metro teams and the remaining eight games are: MON (1), OTT (1), MIN (2), STL (1), EDM (1), CAL (1) and LA (1).
All of this breakdown, hypothetical's and schedule looking begs the obvious question: Why am I so optimistic that they will perform so well in their final 41 games?
Well, the season started abysmally with a six-game road trip because of goaltending, system issues and youth. The system issues were compounded by the fact that Coach Peters was coaching in the World Cup with Canada. Once the Canes returned to home and were able to get in some much needed practice time, the results dramatically changed.
As for the youth and goaltending, there are arguments to be made that Ward is having his best “statistical” season in his career since November 1st. In addition, many of the new additions and young players get better each game—the chemistry is brewing and so is the team’s confidence. They also have had shooting percentages well below the league average for most of the season, however, they are finally starting to improve there too.
The skeptic will say, “well most teams youth players are improving and growing in confidence, so why should this matter for Carolina?”
Let me tell you why the results for the first 41 games are extremely positive—If you look at the “Strength of Schedules” for teams up to this point in the season, the Canes are sitting in second in the entire NHL according to Hockey Reference. They have battled through an extraordinarily poor early schedule, injuries to central players, not having their Head Coach for an extended period, shooting woes and the second hardest NHL schedule. Oh, did I also mention that they have over 100+ games more than any NHL team with guys under 22.
So, I am extremely optimistic for a team that did this despite having many factors that predicted their failure. This team has grown so much since the first game of the season and is primed for a playoff run now. They are finally winning games in the third period and are showing they consistently are a tough opponent to play against.
If they make a few minor tweaks, this team could be dynamite—granted, given the youth prospects that may join the team next season, there is always the argument for why change up a “good thing.”
January 11, 2017, 5:47 PM ET [1 Comments]
Ben Case
Carolina Hurricanes Blogger •
I am switching things up—I know I promised Part IV would be on who I thought the Canes should trade for today and then Part V was going to be review of everything. However, I think that looking at last night’s win and the mid-point of the season flows more naturally for an “intro” to why it is time for the Canes to make a move. I will be releasing the trade list (Part V) tomorrow in the late morning or early afternoon—sorry for switching it up on you all!
So today we are continuing with Part IV in a Five-Part Series: The first one looked at the common misconception that goaltending is the primary reason for the Canes struggles this season. The second article evaluated what I believed to be the most concerning issues surrounding the Canes currently. . Finally, Part III looked at the Canes roster, expendable components and what the expansion draft could bring.
As of last night, the Canes have completed the first half of their season after defeating the Blue Jackets 5-3. To say the least, the Canes continue to be one of the most dominant teams at home (despite the lowest attendance in the NHL) and are now 12-1-1 in their past 14-home games. The results on home-ice have allowed the Canes to climb to three points behind the Flyers for the final wild-card spot with two games in hand.
The win over Columbus was huge not just because they beat the top team in the NHL. This win was significant because it marked the first time that the Canes beat a Metro division team since November 12th in a 5-1 home win over the Capitals. After that win, the Canes lost their last five match-ups against Metro competition and left many points on the table.
Looking at the Canes performances against each division, it is obvious this season the one “sore spot” has been their ability to win games in the Metro division. This isn’t a knock on the Canes either, as the Metro is easily and indisputably the toughest division in the NHL. When you look at the Canes success against each NHL division, the Metro just glares out: 3-7-2(Metro), 8-4-2 (Atlantic), 4-3-2 (Pacific) and 4-1-1 (Central).
Furthermore, four of the top five teams in the NHL right now based on points are sitting in the Metro—CLB, PIT, WSH and NYR. The reason that it is time for the Canes to address their roster needs is because 18 of the final 41 games are against Metro opponents. Beyond that, 12 of those Metro games are against teams that are currently sitting in play-off position and nine are against CLB, PIT, WSH and NYR.
If the Canes are golfing in April, the performance against divisional foes will most likely be one of the key factors determining their fate. Obviously, looking at their first 12 Metro games this season, one could logically conclude the odds of performing better are not in their favor. However, I disagree and think that the Canes are positioned to have a very successful second half.
While the Canes do have 18 games remaining against Metro opponents, there are some positive things to consider heading into the second half. The most positive portion of the remaining schedule has to be the five games against the Islanders—this could be a great opportunity to pick up a slew of points and climb the standings too.
Beyond that, if you look at the bottom two teams in each division, NYI (5), NJD(1), DET(2), BUF (1), COL (2), DAL (2), VAN (0) and ARI (2), the Canes will play 15 games total. Thus, 37% of the remaining games are against teams that are bottom two teams in their respective division. The best news is that nine of those 15 games are against the three worst teams in the NHL—NYI, COL and ARI. If the Canes improved their roster, these could be some serious points for them.
Looking more into it, the Canes currently will play 21 games against teams that are not in play-off position right now. If the Canes were to jump the Flyers though, that total goes to 24 of the final 41 games against non-play-off teams since they have three games against the Flyers remaining.
Given the Canes have two games in hand on the Flyers, three match-ups against them and then 15 games against teams in the bottom two of their respective divisions, one can easily see that the playoffs are definitely obtainable. Thus, of those 24 games broken down above, 18 are against bottom two divisional teams and the Flyers—wow. Oh, did I mention who the Canes final game is against:you guessed it, the Flyers.
Why are these 24 games against very winnable opponents huge—well the most recent projection predicts the final Eastern Conference play-off team will have 92.5 points, so let’s obviously round to 93 (since half points don’t exist in hockey). Currently, the Canes have 45 points and I personally think that this roster has the capability of winning 80% of those 24 games. Thus, if they won 19 (80%) of those 24 match-ups, they then would have 83 points.
Based on this, the Canes would theoretically only need to win five of their remaining 17 games against teams currently projected to make the playoffs. Honestly, I see them winning more than five of those 17, thus, giving them more room for error in the 24 mentioned above. Breaking down these 17 games, nine are against the top four metro teams and the remaining eight games are: MON (1), OTT (1), MIN (2), STL (1), EDM (1), CAL (1) and LA (1).
All of this breakdown, hypothetical's and schedule looking begs the obvious question: Why am I so optimistic that they will perform so well in their final 41 games?
Well, the season started abysmally with a six-game road trip because of goaltending, system issues and youth. The system issues were compounded by the fact that Coach Peters was coaching in the World Cup with Canada. Once the Canes returned to home and were able to get in some much needed practice time, the results dramatically changed.
As for the youth and goaltending, there are arguments to be made that Ward is having his best “statistical” season in his career since November 1st. In addition, many of the new additions and young players get better each game—the chemistry is brewing and so is the team’s confidence. They also have had shooting percentages well below the league average for most of the season, however, they are finally starting to improve there too.
The skeptic will say, “well most teams youth players are improving and growing in confidence, so why should this matter for Carolina?”
Let me tell you why the results for the first 41 games are extremely positive—If you look at the “Strength of Schedules” for teams up to this point in the season, the Canes are sitting in second in the entire NHL according to Hockey Reference. They have battled through an extraordinarily poor early schedule, injuries to central players, not having their Head Coach for an extended period, shooting woes and the second hardest NHL schedule. Oh, did I also mention that they have over 100+ games more than any NHL team with guys under 22.
So, I am extremely optimistic for a team that did this despite having many factors that predicted their failure. This team has grown so much since the first game of the season and is primed for a playoff run now. They are finally winning games in the third period and are showing they consistently are a tough opponent to play against.
If they make a few minor tweaks, this team could be dynamite—granted, given the youth prospects that may join the team next season, there is always the argument for why change up a “good thing.”
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