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Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality

Welcome to the Neno's Place!

Neno's Place Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality


Neno

I can be reached by phone or text 8am-7pm cst 972-768-9772 or, once joining the board I can be reached by a (PM) Private Message.

Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality

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Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality

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    OPEC's next meeting and the direction of shock

    rocky
    rocky
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    • Post n°1

    OPEC's next meeting and the direction of shock Empty OPEC's next meeting and the direction of shock

    Post by rocky Mon 16 Jan 2017, 2:13 pm

    [size=36][size=33]OPEC's next meeting and the direction of shock[/size][/size]
    Ali Abdul Salman 81[ltr]  01/16/2017[/ltr]
    OPEC's next meeting and the direction of shock 587cdaedbb296





    Dr.. Haider Hussain Al Tohme / Euphrates Center for Development and Strategic Studies
     
    Freedom of markets that have been adopted from the presence of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries since the collapse of oil prices in June 2014 to remove shale oil and swallow a glut of supply and the recovery of oil prices to levels of $ 80 a barrel, the policy did not succeed, as the organization predicted, despite more than two years after the trauma.
     The worsening fiscal deficits and the decline in growth rates and financial turmoil to the markets of the Gulf push oil ministers in OPEC to hold an extraordinary meeting in Algeria the end of September last to speed up restore the balance between supply and demand levels in the oil markets. It was agreed to reduce the production of the organization to the limits of 32.5-33 million barrels per day. Companies, which monitors shipping operations data indicate that the production of OPEC production last month totaled 33.6 million barrels a day.
     This means that what needs to be reduced in accordance with the agreement is 600 thousand barrels a day at least, and 1.1 million barrels per day at the most. However, OPEC postponed the decision-making set for the production of each country, and formed a committee to draft the agreement and presented during the regular meeting of the organization in November 30 in Vienna to this adoption is final.
    Install (or reduce) the oil production of the oil states levels inside and outside OPEC may limit the deterioration of prices to new highs, and sends good signals the global oil market adjusts future supplies and in an orderly fashion, hoping to push prices toward recovery and access to reasonable price equilibrium for a barrel of oil. However, it raised several issues about the agreement, the most important of the possibility of the parties agreement and serious commitment of all parties ceilings installed production if what has been agreed, and the extent of the oil markets and prices in response to the levels agreed upon installation.
    Recovery expected
    International oil markets have seen a marked improvement since the start senior oil draw the outline of an agreement Algeria's oil, and the judge to freeze production levels at current levels, has been nominated for the interaction of markets, with the installation of production planned in the Vienna Agreement (OPEC headquarters) next week a package of driving signals of prices perhaps the most notable :
    1. The start of negotiations between top crude oil producers in the world, inside and outside OPEC, long step to reach an understanding geostrategic between senior oil (Saudi Arabia and Russia in particular), and this would calm down, at least from the price turmoil in the oil markets for months and it accelerates the market balance at the fair price of oil.
    2. readiness of Russia and a number of oil from countries outside OPEC to join the installation of production and reduce the growing glut in the supply agreement in order to revive the prices may increase the credibility of the agreement and its impact on world oil markets.
    3. adjusting production ceilings at specified levels, an essential element in stopping flooding the oil market, and a turning point in the supply and demand dynamics towards swallow oil glut. Especially with the continuation of a number of producers to challenge the market dynamics by enhancing production capacities and the granting of discounts, despite the sharp fall in prices.
    4. It is hoped that the Vienna-oil agreement to a series of meetings and negotiations between the various parties in order to pave the way for Tndij new and viable energy policy for the application and the adoption of mechanisms Court re-monopoly power to producers of crude oil in the various countries of the world.
    Sources of failure
    Oil and energy experts did not hide the fear of failure of OPEC in stabilizing or reducing the levels of productivity because of the split between the winning Saudi-Iranian axis and the axis within the organization, which increases the oil market turmoil has threatened to unravel the new prices. In this context, it can monitor a number of risks to the next meeting of the Vienna and shrinking opportunities out members of an oil agreement uniform rein in production and supports the current price levels, perhaps the most important:
    1. disclose the history of OPEC about the difficulty of identifying and reducing the levels of production decisions, highlighting the large number of tough questions, what is the overall reduction rate of the organization? Would-on-one ratio for all or will take effect only on the top producers? Does the organization meet Iraq, Iran, Libya, Nigeria exception calls from the planned reduction due to the decline in production capacity as a result of wars and international sanctions?
    2. harbors global oil markets several doubts about the credibility of the stated figures for the levels of production of each country, as it is trying many oil-producing countries to install a record production figures to ensure safe production ceilings. The oil market has been interpreted as additional glut of supply current.
    3. could hamper the global commercial oil inventories achieve the desired results of the meeting in Vienna because of the oil reaching record highs, it reached nearly 4446 million barrels at the end of the second quarter of this year. This will keep the record level of pressure on the price levels due to the possibility of resorting to such inventories to compensate for any shortage in oil supplies towards the oil market, which leaves the impression to the market not to get fundamental changes in the balance of global supply and demand in the foreseeable future.
    4. Despite the relative improvement that has succeeded by installing the current production levels of oil prices, but the markets could see the result of heightened speculation of the results of the negotiations fluctuated between exporters from inside and outside OPEC on output quotas and the various parties commitment to production levels that are agreed upon .
    5. freezing crude oil production near historic highs, would not significantly alter the balance of supply and demand at the present time, it has achieved the production of Russia, for example, the record levels registered a new peak in the era after the Soviet Union more than 11 million barrels a day.
    6. Iran stands obstacle in the face of the first oil agreement (15 years ago) between producers inside OPEC and outside, despite Iran's support for a plan to freeze oil production, but it is firmly opposed to enroll in the new agreement, especially with its efforts to develop and revive the oil sector in the hope of regain market share lost years ago (4.2 barrels per day) after the lifting of sanctions recently.
    7. There is a deep rift in confidence within OPEC today because of the Saudi-Iranian tensions and sharp differences on the Middle East issues, particularly the Syrian file, weakening the possibility of the success of the next meeting of OPEC, especially with conflicting political and security interests among OECD countries.
    Twilight
    Oil markets could see a new chapter of volatility and price turbulence, but this time it will not be a glut of production and the global economic slowdown usual role, but the potential from the presence of major oil-producing countries coordinate negotiations might work to feed oil price volatility and stir the desire to ride the wave of speculation. The International Energy Agency has described the suspension hopes to freeze production agreement is only conjecture or speculation about a prospective reduction in production, and that the expected recovery in prices in a false dawn.
    It seems that the road in front of a rugged rivals out a final formula for the long-awaited deal, things are also complicated by differences «technical». So what are the real figures for the production of each country, and what additional available production capacity? Will OPEC has the ability to transform understandings Algeria to take the initial agreement at the Vienna meeting? Oscillating oil prices at the moment about the expected answer.
     OPEC's failure to install production levels will not only succeed shock to oil markets, but the impact will extend to the credibility of the organization's role in the international oil markets and the loss of historical sparkle acquired as a monopoly controlling supply and global oil prices.

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