Forex Traders Brace for `Monster` Next Few Days

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20130731-711740.
July 31, 2013, 10:32 a.m. ET
Forex Traders Brace for `Monster` Next Few Days



   By Matthew Walter 
 
Foreign exchange traders are gearing up for an unusually tight schedule of market-moving events in the next few days that may provide a welcome jolt to the currency market.

The dollar's big rally seen earlier this year has stalled, and the greenback has traded in a relatively narrow band against the yen and other currencies since early July. But traders say the quick succession of central bank meetings and key economic data releases on the docket this week may lead to abrupt moves in the dollar, euro and yen.

"It's monster stuff" coming out in the next few days, said John Netto, president of M3 Capital, a proprietary trading firm based in New York, who is betting the dollar will fall this week.

Monetary policy meetings decisions are scheduled from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday and the Bank of England and European Central Bank on Thursday. Those announcements alone would typically be enough to put currency traders on guard, but they're also reacting to Wednesday morning's report on the pace of second-quarter economic growth and will need to digest a widely watched snapshot of the U.S. labor market on Friday, among other data releases.

"There's a lot of new information coming into the market, from policy decisions...to macroeconomic figures," said Helie d'Hautefort, chief investment officer at Geneva-based Optim Invest, which advises clients on $2.7 billion worth of investments and recently launched a fund that trades currencies. "We can have some very important moves."

With such a large binary risk that major currencies such as the euro or dollar could move sharply higher or lower, Mr. d'Hautefort said he prefers not to bet either way. Instead, he's invested this week in hedging instruments--currency options to be specific--that will pay off if market volatility surges in the coming days.

For certain types of investors that specialize is quick, tactical trading, the next few days present a rare opportunity.

While the Fed, Bank of England and ECB are widely expected to leave policy unchanged, traders will parse through their statements for clues about policy adjustments expected later in the year. Speculation about when the Fed will begin to scale back its $85 billion a month in bond purchases shook financial markets earlier this year.

Ahead of Wednesday morning's report on second-quarter Gross Domestic Product, Mr. Netto of M3 Capital was betting that the report would come up short, giving the Fed room to continue its bond buying for longer. Instead, the economy grew 1.7% in the period, shattering the consensus forecast from a Dow Jones survey that called for a 0.9% growth rate in the quarter.

"The market is leaning the other way, and I like taking those shots because they provide tremendous upside," Mr. Netto said.

Quin Kelley, co-founder and managing director at Holland Global Trading LLC, is among the investors expecting the dollar to rebound before the week's end. Uncertainty about the Fed's next move has triggered a significant unwind of bets on a stronger dollar, and the greenback has fallen 2.9% versus the yen since July 8 to Y98.06. Mr. Kelly expects the Fed to give a relatively neutral statement, leaving expectations that its bond-buying will be tapered later this year intact.

"The past couple of months, when we get these [Fed] statements...it seems to be a catalyst for the dollar to take a new direction," Mr. Kelley said.

Write to Matthew Walter at Matthew.Walter@wsj.com

Fingers crossed, could this be what we need?

could be! but could also be key economic data that drives big swings in the forex market. If you are into the forex you will know that unemployment data, construction data and major government announcements ie:economic data
 cause th biggest swings!!!!

certainly iraq dinar on the forex against usd would cause one of the biggest swings!

I agree with these statements.

Thanks for the posts , comments and "specialized" ideas about forex.

There is a website that you can look at that gives you the schedule for all announcements