World Bank: The Syrian economy takes 20 years to return to pre-war levels

World Bank: The Syrian economy takes 20 years to return to pre-war levels





Showed estimates issued by the World Bank recently that the GDP of Syria will take 20 years even approaching the level before the outbreak of the war if it grew the economy by less than 5% in the case reached a political solution and began the process of reconstruction.


The bank said in the report of the Economic Observatory for the Middle East and North Africa, the Middle East and North Africa countries that have been plagued by wars and acts of violence and the decline in oil prices will grow by 2.6% this year compared with 3.5% last year.


The report issued on the sidelines of the meetings of the Arab Monetary Fund indicated that it is expected after 2017, the situation improved slightly, driven by continuing reforms, the growth rate has more than 3% in 2018 and 2019.


Commenting on this, Hafez Ghanem, World Bank Vice President for the Middle East and North Africa, said, "did not survive any part of the region from the effects of instability ranging from the destruction of the lives of people and disrupt the movement of trade and discourage investment, but we are beginning to change the future expectations of those" send the pessimism cautiously "to another" cause for cautious optimism "because we see promising signs in the fruits of economic reform with a sense of the stability of the oil market and the end of all conflicts in the end.


He added, "although it is expected to decline in the overall growth rate for the region as a result of weak economic activity in the oil-exporting countries, it is expected that the oil-importing countries achieve better performance with a high growth rate to 3.5% in 2017 versus 2.9% in the previous year".


Despite the weakness of the general economic prospects in the region, this report points to some positive indications of a recovery in countries such as Egypt, which has successfully implemented some major reforms to increase revenue and control spending, and is expected to increase FDI has doubled in 2017 to $ 5 billion.


At the same time, in light of the decline in oil prices, the oil-exporting countries embarked on the implementation of strong macroeconomic reforms, which helped to maintain economic stability.


Ghanem added that the expectations of the recovery of growth and accelerate the pace of development in the Middle East and North Africa are accessible to the countries of the region; it is necessary to apply economic reforms and diversification of economic activity in order to make room for the growth of the private sector, which can provide jobs much needed and at the same time, it is necessary to improve the quality of schools to provide young people with the necessary skills to compete for these jobs.


The report of the Economic Observatory for the Middle East and North Africa that the sustainability of the economic recovery in the region will depend on the effectiveness of any future efforts to build peace and reconstruction.


The focus of a special section of this new report on the effects of conflicts in Libya, Syria and Yemen, and suggests strategies for reconstruction in order to build stability and strengthen.


It has caused three wars in human suffering and widespread, and the weakening of institutions and the destruction of the economy, and damaged the effects of indirect also to neighboring countries such as Jordan, Lebanon and Tunisia, which hosts an unprecedented number of refugees and suffering at the same time undermining trade and tourism security by conditions.


The report presents the principles that can guide the reconstruction of post-conflict and that it must re-establish what most of the infrastructure and it also includes the institutions of the absence of a major role in the cause of the outbreak of the conflict.


Speaking about the situation in the region exhibition, Shanta Devarajan, Chief Economist for the Office of the Middle East and North Africa, the World Bank said, "led, coupled with economic decline wars to the emergence of new categories are more likely to suffer as it led to the weakening of public services significantly, such as health care and education services".


He added, "requires breaking the vicious circle of violence and economic stagnation collective efforts to support the region in the process of peace-building, which would ultimately long-term political and economic stability".


As far as the economic recovery of the importance, it is also vital guiding reconstruction efforts towards the consolidation of peace to avoid the possibility of renewed conflict.


The report recommends that the process be any future reconstruction all-inclusive home-grown based on a national vision of the donor community for their support, not leadership.


The report pointed out that civil wars involving sectarian conflicts, calling at the conclusion of Governments in post-conflict situations to consider granting more privileges to local entities as a means to preserve the territorial integrity.


And so, Ghanem said that "peace in the Middle East and North Africa region is a global public good; and must be based any reconstruction efforts to state - building and addressing the root causes of the conflict in order to prevent a repeat occurrence , through building inclusive institutions, and enable citizens to express their views and provide job opportunities for displaced populations and residents

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