Weekly Iraq .Xplored report

Weekly Iraq .Xplored report
17 June 2017
Prepared by Risk Analysis Team, Iraq
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Weekly Iraq .Xplored Report
17 June 2017
TABLE OF CONTENTS
TABLE OF CONTENTS .......................................................................................................................................... 2 ACTIVITY MAP .................................................................................................................................................... 3 OUTLOOK ............................................................................................................................................................. 4
Short term outlook ............................................................................................................................................. 4 Medium to long term outlook............................................................................................................................ 4
SIGNIFICANT EVENTS...................................................................................................................................... 5
PM says Iraq not part of Gulf row with Qatar – weekly news conference.................................................... 5
Iraqi PM says operation to retake Tal Afar, Hawijah to start soon................................................................ 5
THREAT MATRIX ................................................................................................................................................ 5 LATEST DEVELOPMENTS ............................................................................................................................... 6
Mosul ................................................................................................................................................................... 6
Security ............................................................................................................................................................... 6
Foreign Affairs.................................................................................................................................................... 7
Economy ............................................................................................................................................................. 8
WEEKLY OPERATIONAL ASSESSMENT .................................................................................................... 9
Countrywide Military/Security Situation .......................................................................................................... 9
ACRONYM LIST ................................................................................................................................................ 16 GARDAWORLD INFORMATION SERVICES .............................................................................................. 17 GARDAWORLD.................................................................................................................................................. 17
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Disclaimer: The information and opinions expressed in this Report are the views of GardaWorld and constitute a judgment as at the date of the Report and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions expressed in this Report have been formed in good faith on the basis of the best information and intelligence available at the time of writing, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. GardaWorld accepts no liability arising out of or in connection with the comments made or the information set out in this Report and the reader is advised that any decision taken to act or not to act in reliance on this Report is taken solely at the reader’s own risk. In particular, the comments in this Report should not be construed as advice, legal or otherwise.
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Weekly Iraq .Xplored Report
17 June 2017
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      ACTIVITY MAP
     
Weekly Iraq .Xplored Report
17 June 2017
OUTLOOK
Short term outlook
 The religious month of Ramadan will see security plans implemented across most provinces in Iraq, probably involving increased troop deployments and enhanced security procedures. Busy periods should be expected around daybreak but especially in the evening around sunset. In the morning families will gather for ‘Suhoor’ – the last meal before fasting begins. In the evening families gather for ‘Iftar’ – the breaking of the fast. Markets are usually busy in the evenings as people prepare for the evening gathering and feast. Such gatherings will be attractive targets for Sunni militants, who will continue violence targeting the Shia civilian population throughout the month. It is almost certain a number of high-profile attacks will be attempted during this period, although activity should be broadly within established parameters.
 As the operation in West Mosul continues, there is a heightened risk of high-profile attacks in permissive areas across Iraq including Baghdad, Salah ad Din and Diyala, as IS retains intent to increase sectarian tensions and force a redeployment of ISF resources away from Mosul. This is underlined by recent VBIED attacks in Shia-dominated areas of Baghdad City as well as multiple lower level IEDs, especially in eastern Baghdad. With ethno-sectarian tensions currently heightened in Kirkuk, there is also an increased possibility of high- profile attacks in Kirkuk City, although IS capability to conduct such an attack is assessed as less than in those areas with a majority Sunni demographic. An increase in attacks can also be expected in eastern Anbar, in particular the cities of Ramadi and Fallujah, as evidenced by recent high-profile attacks in the region.
 Two SVBIED attacks in Basra province on May 19, and SVIED attacks in Karbala and Babel on June 9 exhibit IS retains intent and capability for attacks in the southern provinces. The region remains assessed as non- permissive for IS to significantly escalate operations due to demographics, with the few Sunni militant sympathizers in the region remaining isolated.
 The security footprint and other local factors in the central and southern regions of Iraq, particularly in Baghdad, will severely constrain IS ability to mount sustained complex attacks of the sort seen in the north and the west of the country, though the threat from low-level IED and SAF attacks remains. There may be an increased level of ISF deliberate actions to disrupt and deter insurgent and criminal activity during the Mosul operation, especially in the northern areas of Baghdad province.
Medium to long term outlook
 In the absence of concerted engagement with the Sunni population in areas currently under IS control, it is possible that the post-IS security environment will be characterized by sectarian flash points between radical Sunni tribes and Shia militia groups especially in Nineveh province and western Kirkuk. Limited reporting has already indicated displaced Sunni families being advised or directed to leave Kirkuk. It is almost certain that in areas retaken by ISF, an insurgency will be established by Sunni insurgents including remaining IS affiliates.
 Low-level incidents related to criminality, personal disputes and tribal tensions are likely to continue in Basra and the southern provinces in general. This is assessed to be facilitated by large segments of the security forces currently being involved in operations to retake IS-held areas of the country. In the long-term, there will be tensions driven by the return of Shia militia factions, who will expect material and social rewards for the contribution in the national campaign against IS.
 While the Mosul operation has refocused attention away from Abadi’s reform program, the risk of politically motivated demonstrations against corruption in front of government institutions remains extant.
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Weekly Iraq .Xplored Report
17 June 2017
SIGNIFICANT EVENTS
PM says Iraq not part of Gulf row with Qatar – weekly news conference
Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi has urged all countries to cooperate to stop funds provided to terrorism whether through money or arms, noting that Iraq is not part of the ongoing row in the Gulf. During his weekly news conference, Abadi said: "We are standing by any side that fights terrorism". However, he noted: "Iraq rejects imposing a siege on any country even if we are not on good terms with it. The siege hurts people and not the ruling regimes. Iraq has common interests with all parties and is keen on solving the ongoing crisis in the Gulf".
Iraqi PM says operation to retake Tal Afar, Hawijah to start soon
Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi has said that a military operation to recapture Tal Afar in Nineveh Province and Hawijah in Kirkuk Province is to start soon. "Today the door through which Islamic State militants crossed the borders will be closed. These areas were not under the control of previous governments", Abadi said during his meeting with the leadership of the Shia-dominated Popular Mobilisation Units.
               THREAT MATRIX
        Region KRG* North** Baghdad Anbar South***
Political
Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate
Minimal
Terrorism Militancy
Low Low
High-Extreme High Moderate Moderate
Crime K&R
Low Low
High High
                 Moderate
Moderate
     High
Low
High
Moderate Moderate
High High
     Moderate
Extreme
Moderate
          * ** ***
KRG – Dohuk, Erbil & Sulaymaniyah
North – Nineveh, Salah ad-Din & Diyala
South – Babil, Wasit, Karbala, Najaf, Qadisiyah, Dhi Qar, Muthanna, Maysan & Basra
Threat Scale
Low
High
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Weekly Iraq .Xplored Report
17 June 2017
LATEST DEVELOPMENTS
Mosul
Mosul Tactical Update
ISF face inevitably strong resistance as they fight to retake the last two districts of Mosul still partially under IS control. ISF estimate they have retaken approximately 30 per cent of al-Shifaa district in northwest Mosul, and have taken the Bab al-Sinjar neighbourhood on the northern edge of Old Mosul. On June 14, ISF repelled a major IS counter-attack in the Danadan area of the Old City, that involved multiple suicide attackers. IS continue to indiscriminately target civilians with direct and indirect fire. Eastern Mosul has also been targeted with IDF this week. The UN estimates up to 150,000 civilians are trapped in the remaining IS-held pocket. On June 10, a VBIED detonated in al-Hadba neighbourhood, in northeast Mosul, killing eight and injuring eight, indicating the presence of ‘sleeper cells’ capable of conducting high-impact attacks. It is highly likely that militant capabilities in liberated areas of the city will increase and an insurgency will develop in the city. Similarly in west Mosul, a policeman was killed and three others injured by an IED in New Mosul district, which was liberated three months ago.
West of Mosul, ISF cleared a number of villages in vicinity of Mount Atshan, and pushed northwest to within 8km of Kisik junction, approximately 22km northeast of Tal Afar. Further west, in recently liberated Ba’aj, PMU killed a suicide bomber wearing an explosive belt and repulsed an attack targeting the town.
Iraqi army retakes villages west of Mosul
Iraqi army units have reportedly recaptured some villages west of Mosul from IS on June 10. Commander of “Operation ‘We Are Coming, Nineveh’” Army Staff Lt-Gen Abdulamir Yarallah stated that "the 15th infantry division liberated villages of Al-Zarnouk, Sheikh Qorra Al-Olia, Al-Mahafeef, Sinjar Dam, Tal Kheima and Baghla and raised the national flag over their buildings".
Iraq forces retake Bab Sinjar neighbourhood in western Mosul
Iraqi forces have regained a new neighbourhood from IS in western Mosul, a military commander said on 15 June. Commander of the Mosul offensive Staff Lt Gen Abdul-Amir Yaralla said that “Units of the army’s 9th Division have liberated Bab Sinjar and reached Al-Farouq neighbourhood in the western side of Mosul city
Iraqi forces fend off large Mosul counter-attack by IS
Iraqi forces repelled a major counter-attack by IS fighters at dawn yesterday (June 14) in the Old Mosul district of the city according to an Iraqi police commander. Dozens of IS fighters were killed in the operation to push back the militants, many of whom wore suicide vests.
Iraqi fighter jets kill ‘dozens’ of IS members as part of major offensive on IS territory
Iraqi fighter jets have killed dozens of IS militants in a series of airstrikes launched against Tal Afar, a major conurbation west of Mosul controlled by IS. The strikes are said to have killed "dozens" of IS
Iraqi forces oust IS from Zanjili in western Mosul
Iraqi forces reportedly regained the entire district of Zanjili in western Mosul on June 11. Shakir Jawdat, commander of the Iraqi Federal Police said in a statement that the IS militants were ousted from Zanjili district and that Iraqi forces had seized large caches of weapons and explosives.
Official says IS kidnaps Iraqis over fleeing "Caliphate land"
Islamic State has reportedly kidnapped 120 civilians who were fleeing the areas under the militant group's control in Nineveh province, according to an Iraqi local source in Nineveh province. .
Security
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Weekly Iraq .Xplored Report
17 June 2017
IS calls for Ramadan attacks in several countries, including Iraq
The official spokesman of the Islamic State Organization, Abi Hassan, has released a voice recording which instructs IS’ followers to launch attacks in the United States, Europe, Russia, Australia, Iraq, Syria, Iran and the Philippines during the month of Ramadan.
IS Leader Al-Baghdadi no longer has a leading role
Unconfirmed reports indicate that Islamic State has limited the role of its leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and sent a 12-member leadership council to the Syrian territories under the name of “negotiating committee” to lead the extremist organization, according to “informed Syrian sources” on June 11.
Iraqi Shia militias repel IS attack on border with Syria
Iraqi Shia paramilitary militias have reportedly repelled an attack by IS militants on the Iraqi-Syrian border on June 14. The Popular Mobilisation Units (PMU) said on its website that the IS militants launched a surprise attack at dawn using three booby-trapped vehicles.
Iraqi PM says operation to retake Tal Afar, Hawijah to start soon
Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi has said that a military operation to recapture Tal Afar in Nineveh Province and Hawijah in Kirkuk Province is to start soon. "Today the door through which Islamic State militants crossed the borders will be closed.
Syrian army troops "reach Iraqi border"
The arrival of Syrian government forces and their allies at the country’s border with Iraq is a “strategic turning point in the war on terrorism” according to the General Command of the Syrian Army and the Armed Forces. Sources opposed to the Syrian government have denied that the forces are now in the border area between the two countries and have reported air strikes against Syrian government forces.
Syrian military officials meet with Iraqi counterparts to discuss border security
The Iraqi Defence Ministry announced on June 14 that a Syrian military delegation had visited Baghdad to meet with their Iraqi counterparts, days after Syrian troops and an allied militia were seen securing positions near the Iraqi-Syrian border.
Shia paramilitary group accused of kidnapping over 7,000 civilians in Iraq
A member of the Iraqi Parliament on June 13, accused the Shia Popular Mobilisation Units (PMU) of kidnapping more than 7,000 Iraqi citizens. Iraqi MP Badr al-Fahl said that the PMU are holding the kidnapped in four separate prisons. “These four prisons held by the PMU include more than 7,000 kidnapped from the people of Salah al-Din and other provinces,” he told reporters.
Iranian official hails ‘victory’ on Iraq-Syria border
Press reporting states that Ali Akbar Velayati, head of strategy at Iran’s Expediency Discernment Council, has described a reported concentration of Iranian troops on Syria’s border with Iraq as a “strategic victory”. At a press conference on June 13, Velayati described the development as “a strategic victory for the resistance axis, which stretches from Tehran into Iraq and Syria and into Lebanon," according to Iran’s IRNA news agency
Foreign Affairs
PM says Iraq not part of Gulf row with Qatar – weekly news conference
Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi has urged all countries to cooperate to stop funds provided to terrorism whether through money or arms, noting that Iraq is not part of the ongoing row in the Gulf.
Iraqi PM Abadi Postpones Visit to Saudi Arabia amid Gulf Rift
Iraq's Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi has postponed a trip to Saudi Arabia to avoid taking sides in the rift between the kingdom and Qatar, Iraqi officials have said.
Iran calls for global cooperation to fight "terrorism"
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Weekly Iraq .Xplored Report
17 June 2017
Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Bahram Qassemi has called for the global cooperation to fight "terrorism" during a weekly briefing in Tehran, which was broadcast live by international Press TV
PM Abadi and King of Jordan Discuss Joint Cooperation in Combating Terrorism
Iraqi Prime Minister, Haider Abadi said in a statement released on June 15 that he had received a telephone call from the King of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, King Abdullah bin Al-Hussein, during which he congratulated the PM on the victories for the liberation of all Iraqi territory. He added that "the two sides also discussed the importance of cooperation between the two countries in order to fight Islamic State and remove the danger from the region.
Iraqi vice president starts five-day visit to Egypt
Iraqi Vice President Ayad Allawi has arrived in Cairo on a five-day visit to Egypt. Allawi, the leader of the National Alliance parliamentary bloc, will hold a news conference with the Egyptian foreign minister, according to Kurdish press reporting.
Iraqi Speaker starts visit to Turkey
Iraqi Speaker Salim al-Jubouri has arrived in Ankara on an official visit to Turkey, state-run Iraqia News TV reported on 15 June. Al-Jubouri will hold talks with several Turkish officials during the visit with the talks expected to touch upon recent regional developments and bilateral ties.
Economy
Iraq Plans to Double Exports from Amaya Oil Terminal to 1 Million bpd
Iraq’s oil ministry has stated that it is going to drive up exports from a major oil field in the south to one million bpd over the next few years. Deputy petroleum minister for production and exploration, Karim Hattab, said the ministry plans to increase the exporting capacity of Amaya terminal in Basra, adding that the Basra Oil Company continues to work on development and rehabilitation of the terminal for that purpose.
Iraq Dethrones Saudi Arabia as India’s No.1 Oil Supplier
Iraq has been India’s largest supplier of crude oil for the last three months, shipping data from has revealed. This means that OPEC’s number-two has dethroned the cartel’s leader, Saudi Arabia, which has been the top supplier in the world’s fastest-growing market in terms of oil consumption.
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Weekly Iraq .Xplored Report
17 June 2017
WEEKLY OPERATIONAL ASSESSMENT
Countrywide Military/Security Situation Northern Provinces (Kirkuk/Salah al-Din/Diyala)
Reporting in the remainder of the north region indicated IS are continuing to rebuild insurgent networks and enhance capability throughout the region.
Salah ad Din had a busy reporting period, with a number of major attacks, mostly in the north of the province. In the early hours of June 10, at least ten IS insurgents wearing suicide vests entered Masihlee village, Sharqat district. At least 28 ISF and civilians were killed and 36 others were injured. Some reports indicated IS lost as many as 24 fighters in the attack, which ended around midday. Following the incident, authorities declared a curfew in the region between Mosul and the Iraqi capital Baghdad. There were also two attacks on nearby Talul al-Baj through the week, one of which involved two suicide attackers, which were repelled by ISF and PMU. The defensive line in Bayji was also tested on June 14 by IS militants utilising ‘technical’ vehicles with mounted weapons. Southern Salah ad Din was not without incident. In the early hours of June 16, the Commander of Samarra Operations in Salah ad Din reported an attack involving at least five suicide attackers that were killed by security forces on the eastern outskirts of the city, before reaching their targets. As well as these major attacks, regular smaller incidents continue to take place, including IDF attacks targeting ISF throughout the northern Salah ad Din area on numerous occasions.
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Weekly Iraq .Xplored Report
17 June 2017
Diyala was not as busy as recent weeks, especially in Baqubah and along the Diyala River Valley, with all significant activity reported in the north of the province. Nonetheless, ISF identified an SVBIED at a checkpoint on the ‘Baghdad-Kirkuk’ road (likely Route Cheyenne) in the Safra area, 65km north of Baqubah, which then detonated, killing two civilians and injuring three. Additionally, the Diyala Security Committee chairman Sadiq al- Husseini, stated that IS were attempting to cut military supply routes between Diyala and Salah ad Din by launching multiple complex attacks of SVEST and SAF on the security posts near al-Adaim Dam, 75 km northeast of Baqubah, where ISF managed to kill three suicide bombers of nine that attacked.
Kirkuk province remains heavily influenced by the IS-held Hawija pocket. There was another IED incident in the Dibis area attempting to target oil infrastructure, when on June 16, ISF discovered an IED near an oil wellhead in Musheirfa village, Dibis district.
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Weekly Iraq .Xplored Report
17 June 2017
Anbar Province
Activity in Anbar was in-keeping with recent trends, although there were no large-scale attacks during the period. The majority of reporting included asymmetric activity along the Ramadi-Fallujah corridor and Euphrates River Valley. There were also attacks targeting ISF in the Rutbah area and along the international highways, as well as in the Haditha area.
A joint military operation commenced in the desert west of Rutbah to clear the main road links between the town and the Trebil and al-Waleed border crossings with Jordan and Syria respectively. This followed an attack on the al-Waleed border crossing reported last week, and the destruction of two key bridges by IS. There are still security concerns along the highways in western Anbar, and this week an ISF convoy was attacked between Rutbah and the 160 Kilo marker, which resulted in three border guards injured.
In the Haditha area, Qari al-Obeidi, a senior figure of the Sunni tribal militia, announced that two IS convoys were destroyed in Iraqi air strikes near Haditha as they were preparing for an attack on the area. As many as 40 IS militants were reported to have been killed.
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Weekly Iraq .Xplored Report
17 June 2017
Capital Region (Baghdad City)
Baghdad was relatively subdued during the period, with no high-profile attacks perpetrated. The coming week will witness Laylat al-Qadr (Night of Power) on the 27th day of Ramadan (June 21) – considered the holiest night of the year, commemorating the first revelation of the Quran to the Prophet Muhammad. Additionally on June 23, International Al-Quds day, an Iranian founded event to show support for Palestinians and oppose Zionism, will be marked in Baghdad and other Shia provinces with parades by PMU. Both dates will mark attractive targets for Sunni militants.
There were the usual IED incidents in majority Shia and mixed demographic neighbourhoods, many of which were intimidation attacks. There were also multiple SAF incidents in the city, related to crime, tribal and other disputes. One of the more notable incidents involved a senior figure from Muqtada al-Sadr led PMU Saraya al- Salam (Peace Brigades) called 'Jassim Hummer', who was reportedly killed by gunmen at an unspecified location in Baghdad on June 11
In provincial Baghdad, one person was killed and three others were injured when a roadside IED detonated near a local market in the al-Suwaib area of southern Baghdad.
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Weekly Iraq .Xplored Report
17 June 2017
Central Region (Baghdad Belts)
IED activity continued in the rural areas of Provincial Baghdad. Incidents typically targeted either ISF patrols or civilians near shops or markets.
Five safe-houses destroyed and four IEDs disarmed and unspecified quantity of explosives along with an IS banner seized during a cordon and search operation in Tarmiyah, north of Baghdad. The area continues to witness significant Sunni militant activity. There was also an IED that targeted a PMU member’s vehicle, and gunmen fired at ISF in Albu Khalid village, killing a soldier and injuring a soldier
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Weekly Iraq .Xplored Report
17 June 2017
Southern Provinces
Reporting reverted to typical low-level criminal and tribal events in the southern provinces, following last week’s suicide attacks in Karbala and Babel.
In Basra, there was tribal fighting in Qurna, which resulted in 35 people being arrested, suspected of involvement. In Abu Sakhair, which has witnessed tribal fighting in recent weeks, there was a grenade thrown outside a house for intimidation on June 12, and the discovery of a male body two days later, probably inked to tribal issues.
The Basra Operations Commander Major General Jamil al-Shimmari visited the Bani Malik and Bani Mansour this week, two large tribes often involved in disputes and clashes, in an attempt to set conditions for a reduction in tribal fighting in the province. Al-Shimmari announced that a new operation to disarm the tribes would commence at the beginning of July
Security was heightened throughout the south following an incident in the Muthanna desert. ISF were fired upon from attackers in two vehicles near the border with Anbar. ISF returned fire and the attackers fled. ISF subsequently launched a search operation supported by army helicopters for those two suspected cars.
Demonstrations protesting the inadequate electricity supply were noted in provinces of the south during the period. This included late night protests in Basra that involved burning tyres and blocking roads including Route Topeka. The problem was briefly exacerbated by the cessation of electricity transmission from Iran reportedly due to a technical problem, although the supply has now recommenced. There were also protests pertaining to
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Weekly Iraq .Xplored Report
17 June 2017
electricity provision in Maysan and Muthanna. Demonstrations were also held for the anniversary of the Camp Speicher massacre in Salah ad Din in 2014; to protest planned electricity privatisation; and against corruption and the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC).


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