The beast has not breathed yet

The beast has not breathed yet



31/7/2017 12:00 am

Anthony Belenken
The liberation of the city of Mosul, which served as the actual capital of the Daash organization in Iraq, marks an important turning point in the war against the most dangerous terrorist group. And its resources as it pleases. The essence of a "callous" speech, which is to claim the establishment of a real state, has left only a shaky rag. Trump is therefore entitled to declare its optimism about the end of what the West has become known as the "Caliphate State". However, it is too early to surrender to rest and relaxation, especially in the absence of a strategy for what will come after "urging."
Fifteen years ago, when President George W. Bush prepared to invade Iraq, Joe Biden and Richard Lugar (the two senators at the time) raised a disturbing question as if they were reading the unseen, saying, "What responsibilities will we have after The fall of Saddam Hussein? "This question was not considered by anyone but later proved to be the sensitive question.
Let us now raise the name "Saddam Hussein" and put instead the word "urging" and the question will come back to us today and has gained the utmost importance and urgency. In spite of the military defeat that has come down to the "Da'ash", the political and economic conditions that have been given the opportunity to do so, which the invasion of 2003 is among the factors of its launch, will continue to react.
So how can we ensure that a " loser " remains defeated and defeated ?
The urgent and urgent thing now is to launch a well-funded effort to maintain, secure, manage and rebuild the liberated cities so that displaced people can return home safe and secure. The good news is that the coalition, composed of 68 countries led by the United States, which has declared its willingness to fight "Dahesh" has already raised the funds needed to launch such endeavors through the
United Nations .
There is a plan similar to that of Syria, but the civil war there makes its implementation a difficult challenge, proof of the slow return of life to the city of the two-month-old class, which is the gateway to Raqqa, the capital of Damascus.
The hardest challenge of all this is what will come next. There are twenty-five million Sunni Muslims living between Baghdad and Damascus. They feel apprehensive and worried about their governments. Unless they can be convinced that the state will protect them instead of persecuting them, "Da'ash 2" will find an abundance of supporters and recruits.
Iraq is the most powerful hope for success, but if left unchecked by its own means without help, its leaders will likely return to the conditions that allowed violent extremism to rise in the past. The neighbors of Iraq will line up with each team that supports and supports it to be strengthened in Iraq, the view of the majority and the loser and the result is zero.
This is precisely the role of US diplomacy.
The United States, of course, can not dictate its outcome on a sovereign country like Iraq, but it can support, motivate and mobilize those who want to move in the right direction.
The starting point here is to support what Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi calls the working federalism, that is to give the Iraqis responsibility and resources at the provincial level, and to leave them to take care of their own security, services and schools, and to manage their daily lives.
This is the best way to convince the Sunnis that their future is to be part of Iraq rather than a new "lobbyist." Iraq's Sunnis, accustomed to opposing federalism favoring a strong central government, will relax and accept this solution.
Iraq's constitution allows for decentralization, but this paragraph should be put into practice. Some Shiites may insist on sticking to the privileges that allow them to be the majority, and thus try to keep the word Baghdad the highest on the Sunnis.
The triggering of life in the working federalism begins with the enactment of a law governing the forces known as popular mobilization. These units must remain under the control of the state and move away from both politics and Sunni areas. The Sunni Popular Mobilization Units, which took part in the fighting against Da'ash, must continue to receive their salaries from the state and assume responsibility for maintaining security in their areas. Baghdad should also not overlook Sunni areas when investing in infrastructure projects
.
At the same time, Trump should exploit its strong relations with Iraq's Sunni Arab neighbors and press them to embrace Baghdad and promote Iraq's integration into its regional environment, as well as push the Sunni community to moderate its ambitions. It was the absence of these neighbors from Iraq that created a vacuum filled by Iran and their open and open support for all Sunni demands that fueled the sectarian atmosphere that in turn strengthened Iran's influence in Iraq until it threatened to tear Iraq apart.
Kurdish aspirations also pose a challenge no less compromising the stability of Iraq, Massoud Barzani, president of the Kurdish region, called for a referendum on independence in September. During this period, the Kurds had exploited the fighting with "Da'ash" to take control of 70 percent of the disputed areas between Arabs and Kurds and did not seem to have a desire to return them. The independence of the Kurds is a dream that has its magic and its light, and Barzani sees in his achievement the legacy he will leave
behind.
However, moving too fast may generate anger among Baghdad as well as Sunnis, let alone Turkey and Iran. If oil prices fall below current levels, the Kurds will fall under pressure with which they can only try to achieve self-sufficiency.
Here, too, the United States should play its role as an honest broker. A deal that could be made would give the Kurds greater control over oil in their regions while federal forces remained outside, and then talk about putting the disputed oil-rich city of Kirkuk under joint responsibility. All this can not be achieved alone.
One last question remains: What if the United States keeps something of its military presence in Iraq to ensure that it does not "budge" again?
In late 2011, the departure of US forces was a reflection of the current reality, because most Iraqis wanted to leave. Now, as Iraq wakes up from a nightmare, there may be a stronger willingness and willingness to accept the survival of some Americans to train Iraqi forces, upgrade their capabilities, provide intelligence and support counterterrorism efforts.
Trump's maneuverability amidst this water of political mines will be another crucial test of its strategy. Anthony Blunken is the managing director of the Biden Center for Diplomatic and International Diplomacy and was deputy secretary of state for the Obama administration and a contributor to opinion articles . For The Washington Post Anthony Blunken is the managing director of the Biden Center for Diplomatic and International Diplomacy and was deputy secretary of state for the Obama administration and a contributor to opinion articles . For The Washington Post Anthony Blunken is the managing director of the Biden Center for Diplomatic and International Diplomacy and was deputy secretary of state for the Obama administration and a contributor to opinion articles . For The Washington Post

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