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Moody's assigns Caa1 issuer rating to the Government of Iraq; outlook stable
Global Credit Research - 03 Aug 2017
London, 03 August 2017 -- Moody's Investors Service, ("Moody's") has today assigned a Caa1 long-term issuer rating to the Government of Iraq; the outlook is stable. Moody's has also assigned a (P)Caa1 senior unsecured rating to the country's bond issuance. The rating was initiated by Moody's Investors Service and was not requested by the rated entity.
Concurrently, Moody's has assigned B3 long-term local currency and foreign currency bond ceilings. It has also assigned Caa2 long-term local currency and foreign currency deposit ceilings.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The Caa1 rating is driven by four key factors:
1. Iraq has a relatively large economy that is endowed with very substantial oil wealth, but which suffers from highly volatile growth due to its lack of economic diversification.
2. The country's institutional strength is very low, as reflected in its weak governance indicators and transparency.
3. It has moderate fiscal fundamentals, with a debt burden that is expected to stabilise at around 60% of GDP, but with an overwhelming dependence on oil revenues.
4. Iraq's susceptibility to event risk is very high, against the backdrop of some of the highest political risks in Moody's rated universe.
The stable outlook balances the positive security developments and the support from the international community against the still-fragile political situation and fiscal consolidation challenges that the government faces.
MODERATE ECONOMIC STRENGTH
Iraq is oil rich and has significant potential for economic development and growth. According to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Iraq's proven oil reserves were 153 billion barrels, the fifth-largest in the world, equivalent to 9.0% of global proven reserves at the end of 2016.
According to the latest data, oil accounts for about 50% of nominal GDP, nearly 100% of exports, and around 90% of government revenues. However, because oil extraction is a capital-intensive industry, it is not particularly important for employment, with only 1% of total employment in the sector.
Real GDP growth is highly volatile and is likely to be weaker going forward than it has been in the past. It has remained quite strong in spite of the war with Da'esh and the government's fiscal consolidation efforts that caused non-oil GDP to contract by 1% year-on-year in the first half. Robust oil production was able to pick up the slack. and the IMF has reported real GDP growth of 11.0% for 2016.
However, developments in the oil industry as well as base effects have caused a sharp slowdown in growth in 2017, and we are currently forecasting a 0.4% contraction in growth in the economy. And looking ahead, growth between now and 2022 is likely to slow. After a growth rebound of 2.9% for 2018, the IMF is forecasting that real GDP growth will be between 1.7% and 2.1% through 2022.
VERY LOW INSTITUTIONAL STRENGTH
Iraq has some of the weakest Worldwide Governance Indicator scores in Moody's rated universe. Corruption is endemic and contributes to deep-seated dissatisfaction with the government and, ultimately, undermines the country's political stability and hence policy effectiveness.
Policy effectiveness is accordingly mixed. According to the 2004 Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) law, the central bank is independent from the government. The CBI's primary objectives are domestic price stability and a stable and competitive market-based financial system. The CBI has ostensibly been successful in reducing inflation rates to low levels in recent years.
However, performance under the Stand-by Arrangement (SBA) with the IMF has been mixed, raising broader questions about governance and policy effectiveness. Further fiscal adjustment will be required to keep the programme on track. Public financial management is a particular area of weakness for Iraq and is, therefore, a key component of the SBA targets.
Iraqi data also have significant shortcomings relative to what we see in other rated sovereigns. While detailed monthly oil sector data are available, the analysis of the non-oil sector is hampered by the lack of high-frequency activity indicators and quarterly expenditure-side national accounts data. Quarterly balance of payments data is only available with very significant lags.
MODERATE FISCAL STRENGTH
The decline in oil prices in recent years caused a very material deterioration in Iraq's fiscal position. The government faces funding constraints even with the SBA. The deficit for 2016 as a whole was much larger than targeted—14.1% of GDP versus a 10.9% of GDP target. The IMF anticipates a very large 9 percentage point deficit reduction in 2017 that is almost entirely dependent on oil revenue increases.
Set against that, the government has very significant reserves that total around US$40 billion, which provide it with a fiscal buffer for when other sources of funding are constrained.
Headline fiscal numbers may not fully capture the country's true vulnerabilities. The large state-owned sector implies the potential for sizeable contingent liabilities to crystallise on the government's balance sheet, though a detailed quantification is challenging due to data availability constraints.
VERY HIGH SUSCEPTIBILITY TO EVENT RISK
Political and security risks are very high, driven by underlying ethnic and sectarian tensions, and by Iraq's location within an unstable region. Even if dissolution or disintegration of the country is unlikely, the combination of domestic and geopolitical risks affects the government's capacity to service its debt, which weights very heavily on Iraq's rating.
Notwithstanding the Iraqi army's recent successes in the campaign against Da'esh, Iraq still faces very significant domestic and geopolitical challenges that stand in the way of a lasting and significant improvement in the security situation. Moreover, we expect regional tensions within Iraq, particularly with regard to the Kurdish region, to be an ongoing source of domestic political risk.
While political event risks dominate Moody's assessment, the banking sector, which is dominated by weak state-owned banks, poses a further source of contingent liabilities.
RATIONALE FOR THE STABLE OUTLOOK
The stable outlook reflects that balance between recent positive developments and the fragility of the country's overall political, economic, and fiscal position. On the positive side, security developments have reduced political risks somewhat, though they still remain very significant. Moreover, the support from the international community gives Iraq an opportunity to bolster the country's macroeconomic, institutional, fiscal, and balance of payments position. Nevertheless, the political situation remains fragile and will do so for some time. Moreover, the government faces significant fiscal consolidation challenges that are a notable focus of the SBA.
WHAT COULD MOVE THE RATING UP/DOWN
The rating could move up should political and geopolitical tensions reduce significantly in a way that is likely to be sustainable over the medium term. Positive rating pressure would also build with successful implementation of the SBA, particularly with regard to fiscal targets. Over the longer term, greater economic and fiscal diversification that reduces the government's and the economy's dependence on oil would also be credit positive.
Conversely, a further intensification of domestic political tensions or increase in violence would put downward pressure on the rating. The rating would also come under negative pressure should budget deficits and government debt fail to decrease in line with our current expectations.
GDP per capita (PPP basis, US$): 17,721 (2016 Actual) (also known as Per Capita Income)
Real GDP growth (% change): 10.1% (2016 Estimate) (also known as GDP Growth)
Inflation Rate (CPI, % change Dec/Dec): -1.0% (2016 Actual)
Gen. Gov. Financial Balance/GDP: -8.3% (2016 Actual) (also known as Fiscal Balance)
Current Account Balance/GDP: -7.2% (2016 Actual) (also known as External Balance)
External debt/GDP: 58.5% (2016 Actual)
Level of economic development: Moderate level of economic resilience
Default history: At least one default event (on bonds and/or loans) has been recorded since 1983.
On 02 August 2017, a rating committee was called to discuss the rating of the Iraq, Government of. The main points raised during the discussion were: The issuer's economic fundamentals, including its economic strength, have materially decreased. The issuer's institutional strength/ framework, have not materially changed. The issuer has become increasingly susceptible to event risks.
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Sovereign Bond Ratings published in December 2016. Please see the Rating Methodologies page on [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] for a copy of this methodology.
The weighting of all rating factors is described in the methodology used in this credit rating action, if applicable.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.
Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.
Items color coded in purple in this Press Release relate to unsolicited ratings for a rated entity which is non-participating.
Please see [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.
Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.
Sarah Carlson
Senior Vice President
Sovereign Risk Group
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
Client Service: 44 20 7772 5454
Yves Lemay
MD - Sovereign Risk
Sovereign Risk Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
Client Service: 44 20 7772 5454
Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
Client Service: 44 20 7772 5454
© 2017 Moody’s Corporation, Mo
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
Moody's assigns Caa1 issuer rating to the Government of Iraq; outlook stable
Global Credit Research - 03 Aug 2017
London, 03 August 2017 -- Moody's Investors Service, ("Moody's") has today assigned a Caa1 long-term issuer rating to the Government of Iraq; the outlook is stable. Moody's has also assigned a (P)Caa1 senior unsecured rating to the country's bond issuance. The rating was initiated by Moody's Investors Service and was not requested by the rated entity.
Concurrently, Moody's has assigned B3 long-term local currency and foreign currency bond ceilings. It has also assigned Caa2 long-term local currency and foreign currency deposit ceilings.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The Caa1 rating is driven by four key factors:
1. Iraq has a relatively large economy that is endowed with very substantial oil wealth, but which suffers from highly volatile growth due to its lack of economic diversification.
2. The country's institutional strength is very low, as reflected in its weak governance indicators and transparency.
3. It has moderate fiscal fundamentals, with a debt burden that is expected to stabilise at around 60% of GDP, but with an overwhelming dependence on oil revenues.
4. Iraq's susceptibility to event risk is very high, against the backdrop of some of the highest political risks in Moody's rated universe.
The stable outlook balances the positive security developments and the support from the international community against the still-fragile political situation and fiscal consolidation challenges that the government faces.
MODERATE ECONOMIC STRENGTH
Iraq is oil rich and has significant potential for economic development and growth. According to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Iraq's proven oil reserves were 153 billion barrels, the fifth-largest in the world, equivalent to 9.0% of global proven reserves at the end of 2016.
According to the latest data, oil accounts for about 50% of nominal GDP, nearly 100% of exports, and around 90% of government revenues. However, because oil extraction is a capital-intensive industry, it is not particularly important for employment, with only 1% of total employment in the sector.
Real GDP growth is highly volatile and is likely to be weaker going forward than it has been in the past. It has remained quite strong in spite of the war with Da'esh and the government's fiscal consolidation efforts that caused non-oil GDP to contract by 1% year-on-year in the first half. Robust oil production was able to pick up the slack. and the IMF has reported real GDP growth of 11.0% for 2016.
However, developments in the oil industry as well as base effects have caused a sharp slowdown in growth in 2017, and we are currently forecasting a 0.4% contraction in growth in the economy. And looking ahead, growth between now and 2022 is likely to slow. After a growth rebound of 2.9% for 2018, the IMF is forecasting that real GDP growth will be between 1.7% and 2.1% through 2022.
VERY LOW INSTITUTIONAL STRENGTH
Iraq has some of the weakest Worldwide Governance Indicator scores in Moody's rated universe. Corruption is endemic and contributes to deep-seated dissatisfaction with the government and, ultimately, undermines the country's political stability and hence policy effectiveness.
Policy effectiveness is accordingly mixed. According to the 2004 Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) law, the central bank is independent from the government. The CBI's primary objectives are domestic price stability and a stable and competitive market-based financial system. The CBI has ostensibly been successful in reducing inflation rates to low levels in recent years.
However, performance under the Stand-by Arrangement (SBA) with the IMF has been mixed, raising broader questions about governance and policy effectiveness. Further fiscal adjustment will be required to keep the programme on track. Public financial management is a particular area of weakness for Iraq and is, therefore, a key component of the SBA targets.
Iraqi data also have significant shortcomings relative to what we see in other rated sovereigns. While detailed monthly oil sector data are available, the analysis of the non-oil sector is hampered by the lack of high-frequency activity indicators and quarterly expenditure-side national accounts data. Quarterly balance of payments data is only available with very significant lags.
MODERATE FISCAL STRENGTH
The decline in oil prices in recent years caused a very material deterioration in Iraq's fiscal position. The government faces funding constraints even with the SBA. The deficit for 2016 as a whole was much larger than targeted—14.1% of GDP versus a 10.9% of GDP target. The IMF anticipates a very large 9 percentage point deficit reduction in 2017 that is almost entirely dependent on oil revenue increases.
Set against that, the government has very significant reserves that total around US$40 billion, which provide it with a fiscal buffer for when other sources of funding are constrained.
Headline fiscal numbers may not fully capture the country's true vulnerabilities. The large state-owned sector implies the potential for sizeable contingent liabilities to crystallise on the government's balance sheet, though a detailed quantification is challenging due to data availability constraints.
VERY HIGH SUSCEPTIBILITY TO EVENT RISK
Political and security risks are very high, driven by underlying ethnic and sectarian tensions, and by Iraq's location within an unstable region. Even if dissolution or disintegration of the country is unlikely, the combination of domestic and geopolitical risks affects the government's capacity to service its debt, which weights very heavily on Iraq's rating.
Notwithstanding the Iraqi army's recent successes in the campaign against Da'esh, Iraq still faces very significant domestic and geopolitical challenges that stand in the way of a lasting and significant improvement in the security situation. Moreover, we expect regional tensions within Iraq, particularly with regard to the Kurdish region, to be an ongoing source of domestic political risk.
While political event risks dominate Moody's assessment, the banking sector, which is dominated by weak state-owned banks, poses a further source of contingent liabilities.
RATIONALE FOR THE STABLE OUTLOOK
The stable outlook reflects that balance between recent positive developments and the fragility of the country's overall political, economic, and fiscal position. On the positive side, security developments have reduced political risks somewhat, though they still remain very significant. Moreover, the support from the international community gives Iraq an opportunity to bolster the country's macroeconomic, institutional, fiscal, and balance of payments position. Nevertheless, the political situation remains fragile and will do so for some time. Moreover, the government faces significant fiscal consolidation challenges that are a notable focus of the SBA.
WHAT COULD MOVE THE RATING UP/DOWN
The rating could move up should political and geopolitical tensions reduce significantly in a way that is likely to be sustainable over the medium term. Positive rating pressure would also build with successful implementation of the SBA, particularly with regard to fiscal targets. Over the longer term, greater economic and fiscal diversification that reduces the government's and the economy's dependence on oil would also be credit positive.
Conversely, a further intensification of domestic political tensions or increase in violence would put downward pressure on the rating. The rating would also come under negative pressure should budget deficits and government debt fail to decrease in line with our current expectations.
GDP per capita (PPP basis, US$): 17,721 (2016 Actual) (also known as Per Capita Income)
Real GDP growth (% change): 10.1% (2016 Estimate) (also known as GDP Growth)
Inflation Rate (CPI, % change Dec/Dec): -1.0% (2016 Actual)
Gen. Gov. Financial Balance/GDP: -8.3% (2016 Actual) (also known as Fiscal Balance)
Current Account Balance/GDP: -7.2% (2016 Actual) (also known as External Balance)
External debt/GDP: 58.5% (2016 Actual)
Level of economic development: Moderate level of economic resilience
Default history: At least one default event (on bonds and/or loans) has been recorded since 1983.
On 02 August 2017, a rating committee was called to discuss the rating of the Iraq, Government of. The main points raised during the discussion were: The issuer's economic fundamentals, including its economic strength, have materially decreased. The issuer's institutional strength/ framework, have not materially changed. The issuer has become increasingly susceptible to event risks.
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Sovereign Bond Ratings published in December 2016. Please see the Rating Methodologies page on [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] for a copy of this methodology.
The weighting of all rating factors is described in the methodology used in this credit rating action, if applicable.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.
Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.
Items color coded in purple in this Press Release relate to unsolicited ratings for a rated entity which is non-participating.
Please see [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.
Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.
Sarah Carlson
Senior Vice President
Sovereign Risk Group
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
Client Service: 44 20 7772 5454
Yves Lemay
MD - Sovereign Risk
Sovereign Risk Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
Client Service: 44 20 7772 5454
Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
Client Service: 44 20 7772 5454
© 2017 Moody’s Corporation, Mo
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
Thank you very much fonz!!
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