Polls are always doomed to fail
17/10/2017 12:00 am [rtl]Patrick Cockburn / The Independent (The first is Britain's exit from the European Union and the second declaration from the Kurdistan region independent of Iraq and the third the secession of Catalonia from Spain) three major political changes, including what is going on in its course, including what the recent referendums put on the political agenda. Three different countries are all different, but the common denominator in all three cases is that large numbers of voters feel that their situation will improve when independents themselves go without any measures, such as in the European Union or the state, as in the cases of Iraq and Spain. The referendums carry answers to many questions, so it is no surprise that they find magic on divisive governments, demagogic leaders or dictators. The processes of the referendum from abroad have the appearance of popular democracies, giving the impression that important decisions can ultimately be reached by reducing and simplifying complex issues so that they become mere "yes" or "no". Referendum processes make it easy to manipulate public opinion because the issue that voters are asked to approve is often one of the things that make their imagination laugh, and what they are asked to reject is an obsolete package of grievances that have nothing to do with reality or association. In all three countries, in the past 15 months, there have been many voices, but there is no reason to assume that voting in the referendum will make them happier or happier. The empty promises at the best of the days will be less blurred than they are now, and it is even more so in the case of Britain in particular because both sides exchange their debates about what the bricast and its economic terms or related to the effects of migration and immigrants. Most of the debate here is almost in the future, while the major disasters that the BRICCT will be pouring into are already being realized. Since the closing of the ballot box on June 23, 2016, British society has been deeply divided, perhaps the most split in history since the 17th century civil war, 375 years ago. As one commentator told me last week, expressing the depth, grudge, and longevity of these divisions: "It's really like a civil war without guns." Even the government is so divided that it is struggling to find enough space for the common ground to get rid of Teresa Mai, "although she appears to be suffering from a nervous breakdown in public. There is another danger he is doing here. The bricast clergymen chant their hearts to the voice of Britain's golden past, on a day when Britain alone represented a workshop for the whole world, guided by the virtues of free trade. However, this is a misreading of British history, because standing on the victorious side during the Napoleonic Wars and in the First and Second Wars has little to do with economic power as much as it does with the navy and the skill in establishing alliances. Once again, we say that the weakening of the British state is no longer something that is postponed until after a period of elastic transition, but it is happening now. The experience of the British in referendums is not unique and has debates elsewhere. Experience shows that referendums are used by the winning party to pretend that the majority they have won, no matter how small and few the number of those who attended the vote, represent the will of one unified nation. While the result of 52 to 48 percent, achieved by the vote on the exit of Britain, is that the country is divided on this matter at the midfield. In Catalonia, only 42 percent of those who took part in the vote on October 1 were expected, but the Catalan prime minister is expected to announce independence if he gets the chance to address parliament on Oct. 3. As so often in history, those who seek radical or revolutionary change can not get their benefits unless provoked by those who want to keep the situation as exaggerated reactions that go beyond logic and backfire. So the Spanish government should not have needed much hope to realize that sending the national police to try to stop the referendum process, then failure to try, while ordinary people were beaten in front of television cameras, was the best way to give supporters of independence sympathy. It is also surprising that the summoning of the Catalonia police chief to stand trial on suspicion of incitement against the state would only have ensured that those who conducted the referendum were legitimate. The foolishness of self-destruction committed by governments and defending their interests has been surprising. Those who justify the use of force as a means of enforcing law and order can not, in a moment, turn into brutal thugs without a window stab. Half a century ago, in 1968, I specifically asked one of the civil rights campaigners in Northern Ireland about the next step his movement intended to take (that movement was demanding equal rights for Roman Catholics in a Protestant-ruled state). Told me that he and his colleagues had voted in their meeting recently and decided not to do anything and instead instead wait for the government to make another big mistake, such as allowing the police to attack peaceful protesters demanding civil rights in front of photographers' cameras and television stations. This was already what the government had done. Told me that he and his colleagues had voted in their meeting recently and decided not to do anything and instead instead wait for the government to make another big mistake, such as allowing the police to attack peaceful protesters demanding civil rights in front of photographers' cameras and television stations. This was already what the government had done. Told me that he and his colleagues had voted in their meeting recently and decided not to do anything and instead instead wait for the government to make another big mistake, such as allowing the police to attack peaceful protesters demanding civil rights in front of photographers' cameras and television stations. This was already what the government had done. The referendum that took place in Iraqi Kurdistan on September 25 had its distinguishing features, but it also had similarities with other referenda. The vote was for "Iraqi independence" or "against independence." The vote included areas that were supposed to fall under the authority of the Iraqi government, as well as areas under the authority of the Kurdistan Regional Government. He is a Kurdish scholar and poses himself as a champion of Kurdish nationalism. Surely, most Kurds want an independent state, but the question is how realistic this country is and how successful it is. The vote was useful to Barzani because it gave him the legitimacy he lost, despite the controversy over his term in office that ended in 2015. Despite the quasi-collapsed economy of the Kurdish region, Barzani was able to divert attention from it and present the results of the non-binding referendum as a panacea cure for all the troubles Which the Kurds are embroiled in, although many of these problems are generated as a result of the corruption of the KRG and its poor performance. There is another similarity between BRICEST and CREDCAST, where British politicians who supported the exit from the Union demonstrated to voters that the balance of power between Britain and the 27 EU countries was equal, and that negotiations could proceed on that basis. Similarly, Barzani said after the referendum that he would negotiate independence directly with a government in Baghdad. Both of these claims were, of course, because the fact is that the cards in the hands of Mai, like those in Barzani's hands, are weak against much stronger opponents. Baghdad has already announced that it will not negotiate on anything unless the results of the referendum are canceled first. Turkey and Iran are in a position to put overwhelming pressure on the KRG until it settles. The preachers of Breakest, Kirkdest and Catalonxt promised that there would be some short-term imbalance and unrest for their nations to gain real independence and long-term prosperity. But the reality is that the British, Kurds, and Catalans are very much like Jumbly's characters who Edward Lear wrote about, To the sea in Brabal despite warnings that they will sink for the last. The response "Jampela" on it , saying: "Gharbalna is not great but we Snrkp the sea it will not care about the weight of a button, will not be indifferent to the weight of the fig .." translation - Morning[/rtl] [rtl][You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] [/rtl] |
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