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4 factors may end the agreement to reduce

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rocky
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4 factors may end the agreement to reduce

Post by rocky on Fri 12 Jan 2018, 4:13 am

4 factors may end the agreement to reduce oil production
 11 January 2018 08:54 PM
[rtl]From - Sally Ismail:
 
Mubasher: Possible factors and perhaps challenges threaten the continuation of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which may lead to the termination.
 
In November of 2016, OPEC reached an agreement that was then described as "historic" on reducing oil production in order to balance supply and demand and improve crude prices, which came into force by the beginning of 2017.
 
OPEC and its non-member allies have succeeded in abiding by the agreement over the past year to cut oil production for the five-year average of the target, and agreed to extend it for another year until the end of December.
 
But despite OPEC's decision last November to extend the 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) cut to the end of this year, oil producers agreed to review the new deal at the next meeting of the Organization in June 2018.


Geopolitical concerns
 
A wide range of protests have gripped Iran in the current period, some of them opposed to rising prices and rampant corruption, raising concerns about the impact of supply to OPEC's third largest oil producer .
 
Despite reports that oil production in Iran has not yet been affected by political tensions, the potential remains, as Tehran's drive to halt production may make OPEC restrictions inappropriate, but instead push production up to avoid any shock over crude prices.
 
On the other hand, the scenes of political protests resulting from discontent and economic stagnation bring to mind the 1979 revolution that paralyzed crude oil production and the threat of US President Donald Trump to withdraw from a nuclear deal supporting the country.
 
The unrest is not only affecting Iran, but Venezuela is also experiencing an economic crisis that has already affected its oil production to its lowest level in almost 30 years.
 
"OPEC will not increase oil production unless the unrest in Iran and the economic crisis in Venezuela to the disruption of large and long supply," according to reports quoted by the agency, "Reuters"unnamed sources .
 
Reports have indicated that the policy of the Organization to reduce levels to normal levels and will remain so, but may decline in case of continuing turmoil on the supply of up to one million barrels per day for more than a month and led to a shortage of crude.
 
Clear recovery of prices
 
After oil prices in the new year the strongest beginning since 2014 continues to rise near the levels of 3 years earlier in reference to the recovery of crude .
 
Brent crude was up 1.3% in the first week of the new year, while US crude was up 1.7% on a weekly basis for the third time in a row.
 
In the third session of this year, the price of US crude to the highest level in more than 3 years after finishing trading at 62.01 dollars a barrel, the highest close since December 2014, while crude exceeded the level of 68.07 dollars per barrel during the same trading session.
 
But the US crude exceeded the level of 63 dollars at the close of the seventh session this year for the first time in 3 years, to jump during the next session to $ 64.33 a barrel, while Brent rose to 69.60 dollars per barrel during the same session. 
 
Crude prices were boosted by a drop of 7.4 million barrels of US oil inventories during the last week of last year, and the same period saw the closure of five crude exploration platforms in the United States.
 
In the first week of the new year , US crude stocks continued to fall for the eighth week in a row by 4.9 million barrels to reach 419.5 million barrels.
 
The US Energy Information Administration raised its forecast for the average oil price for the current and next year.
 
US production rebound
 
US oil production is increasing significantly during the current period, reaching its highest levels since the early 1970s, supported by a boom in crude prices, which reached its highest level in nearly three years.
 
According to statements quoted by the agency "Shana," Iranian Energy Minister " Bijan Namdar Zanganeh, " stressed that OPEC member countries are keen not to increase the price of Brent crude at the level of $ 60 a barrel to avoid increasing supplies of rock production.
 
A recent report by the US Energy Information Administration recently report finds that the production of the United States of oil increased by more than 384 thousand barrels per day to 9.2 million barrels per day.
 
In October , US oil production rose by 167 thousand barrels per day to 9.64 million barrels per day, the highest monthly level since May 1971.
 
While the US Agency's monthly forecast shows that average oil production in the United States is expected to jump to a record 10.3 million bpd this year, exceeding 11 million bpd next year.
 
US production in 2018 would hit a record high above the record level of 9.6 million bpd in 1970, she said.
 
The agency also said that the average production of OPEC reached 32.5 million barrels per day last year, a decrease of 0.2 million barrels per day compared to 2016 levels.
 
While the latest OPEC report revealed that oil production fell by 133.5 thousand barrels per day last November led by the countries of Angola, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela respectively to reach 32.44 million barrels per day.
 
Infringement of OPEC members
 
Several trends suggest that some OPEC members have not fully complied with OPEC's decision a year after the agreement.
 
According to Bloomberg, analysts at the research firm BMI expect Iraq to not comply with the Opec agreement as seasonal demand rises during the summer months.
 
The average production of Russian oil last year increased to 10.98 million barrels per day to reach the highest level in 30 years compared to the levels of 2016 and 2015, which amounted to 10.96 and 70.72 million barrels per day, respectively, according to data from the Ministry of Energy in Moscow 


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