Iran between two crises
Author: Hazem Mbayedin 10/7/2018 12:00 AM [rtl]The Iranian Republic is living under two interrelated crises that serve each other. The internal economic crisis is linked to the externalization of current US sanctions and the possible international sanctions. Some opponents of Tehran are betting that demonstrations in some Iranian cities In the overthrow of the regime and replacing it with a Western democracy, which means the withdrawal of Iranian troops from Syria and the signing of a peace agreement with the Jewish state, but obviously this bet seems to lose for reasons that recent demonstrations are not the biggest this year, so there is no reason to see them in The economic bazaars of these events are not new. The economic crisis is chronic and is the result of the sanctions imposed on Iran four decades ago, in conjunction with the administrative sins of bribery and corruption. It failed to manage a conflict and a political force to hide the one. Iran is not a poor country. Its foreign exchange reserves are estimated at more than $ 140 billion, and the National Development Fund, which pumps 5 percent of its oil revenues, has more than $ 50 billion worth of real estate. As well as the commitment of Russia and China to continue trade with Iran, but what must stop is that the economic crisis can not be measured only by macroeconomic data, Iran is experiencing the crises of the first "confidence" and stems from the fact that President Ruhani failed to implement most of his promises in his campaign , And the crisis of "frustration", which stems from the failure of the nuclear agreement to bring about an economic revolution. It is true that Iranian citizens were willing to deal positively with the fact that economic reform needed patience, but frustration generated that the pace of development and economic reform was too slow and not comprehensive enough. Cent. What led to a panic prompted citizens to buy more dollars and gold, and it was able real estate, whose prices rose dramatically. Iranian officials assert that the causes of the crisis are psychological and not real economic. So the current target is to calm the riyal. Perhaps through a government reshuffle, but managing Iran's economy is not exclusive to the president. There is the Council of the Resistance Economy, which works under Khamenei's orders to confront the damage caused by US sanctions. The Supreme Guide finds himself at the heart of the crisis. Which requires him to set the priority. Intervention in Syria and Yemen has a national security issue that must not be waived, despite the enormous material costs and stopping this intervention may put it in confrontation with the Revolutionary Guard, which controls more than half of Iran's economy. Rohani hopes that the current crisis will push the top leadership to allow him to carry out the required reforms. Some would expect Khamenei to use him to fire him and blame his government for the crisis. Here, some predict that he will be replaced by hard-line general Qassim Soleimani to refute any idea of the possibility of overthrowing the regime and merely change the leadership in search of new approaches to Iran's western relations, no one can speculate on. Washington argues that it does not want to topple the Iranian regime, but seeks to change its behavior, but the scrutiny of this statement and what is happening on the ground indicates that Washington does not want to change the regime by force, but through siege and starvation and sanctions, and not as a result of war costly and impolite. The series of huge sanctions imposed and will continue to be imposed, and the waving of making Iran's oil revenues touch the zero line, playing on the strings of national components, popular protests and foreign opposition, all this indicates that the actual goal of Washington is to overthrow the regime and end the phenomenon of exporting the revolution and undermine the regional role of the Islamic Republic. Clearly, this allows the United States to gain the understanding of many countries in the world that do not seek to antagonize Iran, although they want them to change their behavior, although they do not think of overthrowing the regime. Tehran and Washington share threats over the oil shipment through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has threatened that this strait will be for everyone or not. Washington responded by saying that the US Navy is ready to guarantee freedom of navigation and trade across the strait. War, others saw it as part of a psychological war involving all parties. Military experts estimate that Iran can actually close the crossing because of the military power it has accumulated over the past decades. There are several options Iran can take to close the strait, but this hinders the high cost of this option and the difficulty of its continuation. It will likely lose large returns, and it is likely that Iran's resort to this option will ignite a regional and international war that Israel has repeatedly and repeatedly predicted . However, Iran has another option to try to circumvent sanctions in ways and methods that it has tried in the past. It seems that it will resort to this option as it did in the previous cases, when it resorted to intermediaries to sell its oil and vent its economic crisis suffocating.[/rtl] [rtl]http://www.alsabaah.iq/ArticleShow.aspx?ID=159830 [/rtl] |
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