the Iraqi president enters the line of scenarios of "filling the vacuum" Syrian[/size][You must be registered and logged in to see this image.] [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
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Twilight News / President Donald Trump's sudden decision to withdraw from Syria has unleashed diplomatic and military contacts between America's allies and its domestic, regional and international foes to reach arrangements and fill the vacuum. There are two dates governing these contacts: first, the US-Turkish talks in Washington on 8 next month, and the other, the 60-day deadline, which was put in place to implement the withdrawal decision, (some countries sought a 4-month deadline).
Public silence and implicit movement in Damascus. Waiting in Moscow to implement the withdrawal. Worried and moved by Washington's Arab allies east of the Euphrates. A sense of "new betrayal" among the Kurds. Warned welcome and plans in Ankara. Informed alert and latent movement in Tehran. Shock in Paris, London and Berlin and moved to discourage Washington.
After the decision of Trump on the background of his telephone conversation with his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan on 14 this month, began the process of drawing up plans for a "full and rapid withdrawal" from East Euphrates and Manbaj and the base Altnf. The diplomats of the US State Department immediately withdrew. They are expected to be followed by CIA officials in preparation for assembling military units and elements for a systematic withdrawal in conjunction with procedures and arrangements to fill the void.
According to information for Asharq Al-Awsat, two scenarios were put forward: The first was adopted by Iraqi President Barham Salih in which leaders from the Kurdistan Workers' Party came from the Kandil mountains to Sulaymaniyah and then visited Damascus to restore the old heat and relationship, including the return of the army and border guards to all border points Syrian relations with Turkey and Iraq, in addition to the return of Syrian flag and official elements of sovereignty to the areas of East Euphrates. Some suggest the possibility of a return to co-ordination of a "joint action against Turkey" as was the case in the last two decades before the removal of PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan in mid-1998, coinciding with continued fieldwork in the past two days between Kurdish People's Protection Units and government and security forces In the "security squares" in Qamishli and Al-Hasakah and Tammas points in Aleppo countryside.
There were indirect contacts between the units and Moscow. Russia has shown no enthusiasm for such a possibility, especially with regard to the section that angers Turkey, which wants to keep a deep security bar north of Aleppo and northern Idlib under the understandings with Moscow. But Russia has accepted the idea of restoring government sovereignty over all Syrian territory, including border points, and accepting a kind of decentralization in the north-east and north-west.
The other scenario was pushed by some US officials before the withdrawal, including US envoy to Syria James Jeffrey. More complex and mature elements include: Turkey getting a secure strip 20 to 30 kilometers north of Syria along the border from Grapples to the Syrian-Turkish-Iraqi corner. Dismantle the US observation posts that were set up a week ago at Tel Laban, Kubani and Ras Al Ain. The expulsion of Kurdish "protection units" from the border. The spread of elements «Peshmerga» come from Kurdistan, including the elements of the Syrian Kurds trained in northern Iraq. Mobilized Arab tribes in the north of Aleppo and the Euphrates to fight "dashing" and changing the demographic balance. Here, the head of the "Tomorrow Trend" Ahmed Jarba plays a role in this, through his intensive transfer between Arbil and Ankara, and he has laid the page of tension with Turkey. Rebalancing the ethnic balance so that Arabs play an additional role in cities, such as Raqqa and Tabqah, with an Arab majority.
In this scenario, the idea of deploying border elements is proposed by the government forces to obtain the acceptance of Moscow and Damascus. It also raises the idea of going to war against the "dads" and sleeping cells there, and the restoration of a previous Turkish proposal dating back to 2014 to be based on the Arab clans and Arab forces and opposition factions in the war against «Dahesh». The idea of using some 2,000 opposition fighters at the Al-Tanf base in the Syrian-Iraqi-Jordanian corner, which is looking for exits after the withdrawal and the possible dismantling of the 55-kilometer-old reserve, was also raised.
The test point between Washington and Ankara in the acceleration of the implementation of the remainder of the roadmap Manbj through the complete withdrawal of the "units" and loyalists in the military and civilian councils in Manbaj, in addition to the formation of a new Council and discuss the fate of joint Turkish-American patrols on the lines of contact between Washington's allies and supporters of Ankara .
These and other ideas will be discussed during the US-Turkish military and diplomatic meetings in Washington on January 8. As the Turks will carry their plans to fight «push» and remove «units». The Americans will bring their plans for a "full withdrawal" within two months, and the fate of the air embargo provided by the international coalition aircraft.
When a delegation from the "Syrian Democratic Council" included Ilham Ahmed and Riad Darrar visited Paris two days ago, French officials found "shock" and "loss of compass" due to the exit of the Americans. The good news for the delegation was that Turkey had suspended the attack. Therefore, they will not get the warning that the surprise attack will lead to the transfer of the "units" of its forces from fighting "urging" to repel the Turks. But the disappointing news was that France could not do much military if America decided to withdraw and could not meet the demands of the Kurds to maintain a no-fly zone, as happened in northern Iraq in the 1990s, unless the Americans agreed to the calls of the allies to stay at least air and keep the line « Preventing the clash "on the Euphrates River between allies of Russia and US allies in May last year.