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[rtl]Editorial Date: 2019/1/1 9:25 • 307 times read[/rtl]
{International: Euphrates News} receives the world a new year filled with fears and hopes, and our region has many crises that have been outstanding for years, which do not seem separate from the complex international contexts.
The report reviewed the views and analysis of a selection of analysts engaged in the most important political and economic files, summarizing each of them vision of the most important developments expected in 2019.
Ihsan al-Shammari / head of the Iraqi political think tank:
There will be no change at the political level in Iraq during the new year, Faces the challenge of completing the cabinet reshuffle and is under the pressure of parties that are working to fix quotas and turn state institutions into fiefdoms. The government may face bumps from not implementing its program, and Parliament will be a clearing house, which will be reflected in legislation or the level of service delivery and the fight against corruption.
As for the relationship with the Kurdistan region, there are many challenges that need to be reformulated according to the constitutional rule, oil, Kirkuk, Peshmerga and federal disciplines need concessions.
I also expect Iraq to face a major challenge in maintaining an external balance because of the Cold War between Washington and Tehran. The economic conditions are on fragile ground due to fluctuations in oil prices, which will affect the lives of citizens and high unemployment and poverty levels, in the absence of foreign investment and the inability of the private sector to fill the vacuum.
Hossam Shaker / Media and researcher consultant specialized in European affairs:
- US President Donald Trump will continue to world occupancy Bngredath and positions in 2019, including return more headaches on Washington and its allies partners, including the Europeans , who will have to increase spending on the system Atlantic and calculating their losses from unilateral actions Imposed by Trump on their exports.
- A "trade war" between Washington and Beijing, and within the "Big Seven" in general, will be aggravated in the new year, putting economic globalization in question.
- The year 2019 will outline its chances of winning Trump in a second term depending on the course of the issues he is pursuing, as well as his internal performance and his interactions with Congress. "Trumpet" in the world will be devoted to populist populist faces in the Americas, Europe and perhaps others.
- Trump will not stop a Gulf policy called "Pay for protection," with deals worth hundreds of billions, accompanied by political dictates.
- Washington will continue to attempt to impose its project on the Palestinian issue as an integrated package without requiring it to be called the "Deal of the Century" or as a split as it has been since the end of 2017. The download will be subject to objective conditions in the region and the willingness of partners or agents in the Palestinian and Arab arenas to respond. After the Israeli elections in April.
Imad Abshnas, Iranian journalist and academic writer:
- Iran's new budget project reflects difficult economic conditions in the new year, and Iran's foreign relations are expected to be affected by these conditions and sanctions. The election campaigns of the Islamic Consultative Assembly will be affected by fierce propaganda against the government of President Hassan Rowhani.
- Many Iranian politicians are betting on the outcome of the US presidential election in 2020 to change the conditions associated with Iran. A spiritual government is betting on the European economic package for the expected exchange. If the Iranians do not agree, it will weaken the moderates and increase the influence of militants who seek further challenge in the relationship with the states. The United States and its allies in the region. On the other hand, Iran's relations with countries that do not comply with US sanctions are expected to improve, but it is unlikely that Iran will cut ties with countries that comply with these sanctions.
- In terms of the possibility of a global financial crisis, we recall the circumstances that led to the first two world wars of economic crises, and today many countries are facing a blockade and economic sanctions such as Iran, Qatar, Russia and China, even the European Union, prompting those countries to push towards the formation of financial systems New.
Thus, the exit of large countries from the financial system, which depends on the US dollar, warns of the accumulation of debt on the American people, and the reflection of pressure on countries dealing with the dollar, which may lead to a new global financial crisis.
Muhammad al-Jawadi, adviser to the Global Coalition for Egyptians Abroad:
I expect normalization with Israel by the countries that pressure Saudi Arabia (such as Yemen, Mauritania, Sudan and Bahrain) and Riyadh to be delayed in order to be printed after the normalization of the majority.
Saudi Arabia will exert pressure on the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries ahead of the Gulf Arab summit earlier this year to try to heal the Gulf rift.
In my opinion, the Arab demand for normalization will be a curse on Israel, because it will accelerate the rate of disintegration of its political and racial structure. The Arabs who seek normalization want to improve their relationship with the US administration. This goal has not been clear for seventy years now, Israel is merely a regional mediation office, and it deprives Israeli society of three forces: the power of faith in the Promised Land and the sacrifice for it, the value of historical existential fighting, and the value of Israel's avant-garde image in the fields of globalization, investment and the state of institutions.
Essam Abdel Shafi / President of the Academy of International Relations:
Egypt's political and economic situation in 2019 will be worse than its predecessor, as a result of a new package of IMF requirements that will negatively affect the economic situation and its association with the privatization and restructuring of human resources in government agencies. The government will reduce the size of the labor force. Major social imbalances.
This is in addition to consolidating the system of its powers and guarantees of its continuation after the completion of the procedures of amending the so-called 2014 constitution, which was adopted after the military coup, to pass the survival of President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi until his death.
In the same context, the year 2019 will be a continuation of the great failure in the file of the Sinai Peninsula, in accordance with the systematic policies adopted by the regime to unload it from its population, and the continuing violations against its citizens, to the ultimate goal of completing the procedural steps to implement the deal century, after the excess system itself on the islands of Tiran And Sanafir in 2016 for the benefit of Saudi Arabia, and in the interests of the Zionist entity, which began to public features appear in the declaration of the establishment of the so-called Red Sea entity among several Arab countries, to be joined by Israel officially later.
Mohammed al-Menshawi, a Washington-based political analyst:
- The year 2019 will witness a lot of unprecedented political drama in American history, especially with the start of the presidential elections. Democrats in Congress will try to threaten Trump's legitimacy by preventing him from building the border barrier as he promised his conservative and anti-immigrant electoral bases, which may reduce his chances in the next election. Trump challenges from within his Republican Party to compete for the run for 2020, unlike usual.
- Detective Robert Muller's report could come up with dramatic recommendations if Trump's personal collusion with Russian authorities or the president's knowledge of the complicity of others proves his team, which would call for his dismissal.
- Washington and its institutions will press for accelerating Arab normalization with Israel, even if Trump's deal of the century is not successful after the Israeli elections in April.
- Congress, particularly the Democratic-controlled House of Representatives, will continue to investigate suspicious relations between Trump and Saudi Arabia, Trump's position from Mohammed bin Salman and his responsibility for the death of Jamal Khashoggi. I think Trump will bow to the intelligence services and the pressures of Congress and acknowledge the responsibility of the Saudi Crown Prince, but that will not automatically mean the overthrow of Mohammed bin Salman, the decision must be made in Riyadh.
Ibrahim al-
'Alabi, a Syrian journalist and writer, said: " Given the number of indicators of accelerated normalization with Israel, particularly by the Saudi-UAE axis, 2019 is expected to see a series of other steps likely to establish diplomatic relations and open embassies. Including at least Bahrain, the UAE and Saudi Arabia.
The race for normalization with Israel is mainly linked to the so-called "Deal of the Century", which the administration of US President Donald Trump seeks to pass in every possible way. The deal is expected to be put out in public and will begin to be negotiated in 2019, without the possibility of passing it in the same year.
Syria will see a new Turkish military operation in the early part of the new year, whether in Manbeg, Tal White or Ras Al Ain, or in all of them, concurrently or in a row, on the assumption that Trump really wants to coordinate with Turkey in particular to complete the decision to withdraw from Syria. Likely yet. In general, it became clear that work is under way in the Arab decision to limit the Syrian issue, and 2019 is expected to witness the gradual birth of a new alliance between the Saudi-UAE axis and the regime of Bashar al-Assad, his real concern is the confrontation of the Turkish "danger" and his slogan to separate Assad from Iran.
- The Gulf crisis does not seem to be a tangible development, either towards relaxation or complexity, and we are likely to see a relative decline in the frequency of heated debate between the parties to the crisis.
Yaser Mahjoob / Sudanese writer and academic:
The talk about the fate of Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir on the basis of the recent mass protests does not seem realistic without diving into its backgrounds and causes. It is impossible to envisage an economic breakthrough without political solutions, but the ruling elite sees no security solutions to confront the demonstrators. Accusations of treachery and labor and the return of economic distress to the divine predestination and the international quagmire and the American blockade, as well as promises that the budget of 2019 will bring healing solutions.
This situation in which the regime is losing leads to two choices: confrontation with the people or dealing with the demands of the masses. But the streets of Khartoum have become like a military barracks, and this is not normal and will cause fatigue to the security forces and stop the economy. The continuation of the demonstrations will prompt the outside world to question the prestige of the Authority and its ability to manage the country and will encourage it to intervene.
As the scale of the protests rises to the point of calling for Bashir's departure, his fate could be dramatic unless it is better to deal with these developments. If he has a chance to survive, it is to preside over a transition period that is a government that is completely different from the three-decade-old governments that Bashir has formed. This will only come after a quick and urgent political move that offers convincing solutions and painful surgeries that affect the whole authoritarian hierarchy, with a clear and tightly worded political discourse.
Tariq Nafie al-Mutairi / Kuwaiti writer and researcher:
The size of the Gulf crisis since its inception was significant, and it was clear that the dispute was not confined to some of the claims by the blockade states. It turned out that these claims were only coverage of the intentions of the military invasion of Qatar, prompting the latter to take the necessary measures to protect itself.
Despite American calls to resolve the crisis, the US position has been neutralized for two main reasons: the volatile position and lack of confidence at both ends of the crisis, and the instability of the White House with its occupant Trump, who faces major internal and external problems.
So, given the size and depth of the Gulf crisis, and the angle of view of the parties that have gone beyond the stage of disagreement to hostility. After neutralizing or disrupting the influential American factor in Gulf politics, the crisis seems to continue in 2019 and there is no hope for resolution.
Arif Al-Obaid / Professor of Political Science:
The conflict over Idlib will intensify between Turkey and Russia because of its proximity to the coastal areas. It will remain part of the Turkish strategy and its role in Syria's future, so Turkey will not easily abandon it and will be able to flip the cards if Moscow tries to betray Ankara through the political process agreed upon in Astana. Turkey will control the Kurdish border areas and leave Russia to control the city and Deir al-Zour after the US withdrawal.
In the West, the threat of the far right will increase because of austerity policies, exploitation of the refugee crisis and Russian support for these movements, the greatest threat to Europe's future, not Islamic extremism as rumored.
In the Eastern Mediterranean region, the struggle for control of the gas sources will intensify, and yesterday's enemies will become allies of today through Egyptian-Greek Cypriot-Israeli cooperation against Turkey. Russia will move to protect its interests and join forces with Turkey against the alliance, with the aim of thwarting the plan to extend the pipeline to Europe, and the conflict will increase because of failure to delineate the economic belts of each country, as well as the appetite of international companies to come to exploit gas in the region.
Yaseen al-Tamimi, a Yemeni political analyst:
The year 2018 brought significant developments to Yemen. UN envoy Martin Griffith was able to open a political process at first glance that the United Nations might return Yemenis to the path of peace. But the most serious thing that Griffith accomplished is that he launched an era of separate conflict zones and secured international references, such as resolution 2451 of the Security Council, which fortified the mission of the International Monitoring Mission in Hodeidah and its ports.
This leads to the belief that the Saudi and Emirati wars in Yemen will not go to the ends that their allies expect from the legitimate government. Worse, this agreement demonstrated that Riyadh could compromise after it had sunk into problems of a global nature that could threaten arrangements for the transfer of power in Riyadh.
Based on the UAE's steps toward Damascus, the slogan of confronting the Iranian project in Yemen is no longer supported by the political and moral positions of Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
Therefore, if the Riyadh impasse persists in the light of the escalation against it in the West, and if Iran celebrates its final victory in Syria, we may see new developments in Yemen, such as the removal of President Abed Rabbo Hadi and his authority, ending the war with inconclusive results, Break the current Saudi-Emirati monopoly of power, which in turn is another regional and more serious defeat for Riyadh
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Including Iraq .. What do analysts expect for 2019?
[/rtl][rtl]Editorial Date: 2019/1/1 9:25 • 307 times read[/rtl]
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[rtl]{International: Euphrates News} receives the world a new year filled with fears and hopes, and our region has many crises that have been outstanding for years, which do not seem separate from the complex international contexts.
The report reviewed the views and analysis of a selection of analysts engaged in the most important political and economic files, summarizing each of them vision of the most important developments expected in 2019.
Ihsan al-Shammari / head of the Iraqi political think tank:
There will be no change at the political level in Iraq during the new year, Faces the challenge of completing the cabinet reshuffle and is under the pressure of parties that are working to fix quotas and turn state institutions into fiefdoms. The government may face bumps from not implementing its program, and Parliament will be a clearing house, which will be reflected in legislation or the level of service delivery and the fight against corruption.
As for the relationship with the Kurdistan region, there are many challenges that need to be reformulated according to the constitutional rule, oil, Kirkuk, Peshmerga and federal disciplines need concessions.
I also expect Iraq to face a major challenge in maintaining an external balance because of the Cold War between Washington and Tehran. The economic conditions are on fragile ground due to fluctuations in oil prices, which will affect the lives of citizens and high unemployment and poverty levels, in the absence of foreign investment and the inability of the private sector to fill the vacuum.
Hossam Shaker / Media and researcher consultant specialized in European affairs:
- US President Donald Trump will continue to world occupancy Bngredath and positions in 2019, including return more headaches on Washington and its allies partners, including the Europeans , who will have to increase spending on the system Atlantic and calculating their losses from unilateral actions Imposed by Trump on their exports.
- A "trade war" between Washington and Beijing, and within the "Big Seven" in general, will be aggravated in the new year, putting economic globalization in question.
- The year 2019 will outline its chances of winning Trump in a second term depending on the course of the issues he is pursuing, as well as his internal performance and his interactions with Congress. "Trumpet" in the world will be devoted to populist populist faces in the Americas, Europe and perhaps others.
- Trump will not stop a Gulf policy called "Pay for protection," with deals worth hundreds of billions, accompanied by political dictates.
- Washington will continue to attempt to impose its project on the Palestinian issue as an integrated package without requiring it to be called the "Deal of the Century" or as a split as it has been since the end of 2017. The download will be subject to objective conditions in the region and the willingness of partners or agents in the Palestinian and Arab arenas to respond. After the Israeli elections in April.
Imad Abshnas, Iranian journalist and academic writer:
- Iran's new budget project reflects difficult economic conditions in the new year, and Iran's foreign relations are expected to be affected by these conditions and sanctions. The election campaigns of the Islamic Consultative Assembly will be affected by fierce propaganda against the government of President Hassan Rowhani.
- Many Iranian politicians are betting on the outcome of the US presidential election in 2020 to change the conditions associated with Iran. A spiritual government is betting on the European economic package for the expected exchange. If the Iranians do not agree, it will weaken the moderates and increase the influence of militants who seek further challenge in the relationship with the states. The United States and its allies in the region. On the other hand, Iran's relations with countries that do not comply with US sanctions are expected to improve, but it is unlikely that Iran will cut ties with countries that comply with these sanctions.
- In terms of the possibility of a global financial crisis, we recall the circumstances that led to the first two world wars of economic crises, and today many countries are facing a blockade and economic sanctions such as Iran, Qatar, Russia and China, even the European Union, prompting those countries to push towards the formation of financial systems New.
Thus, the exit of large countries from the financial system, which depends on the US dollar, warns of the accumulation of debt on the American people, and the reflection of pressure on countries dealing with the dollar, which may lead to a new global financial crisis.
Muhammad al-Jawadi, adviser to the Global Coalition for Egyptians Abroad:
I expect normalization with Israel by the countries that pressure Saudi Arabia (such as Yemen, Mauritania, Sudan and Bahrain) and Riyadh to be delayed in order to be printed after the normalization of the majority.
Saudi Arabia will exert pressure on the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries ahead of the Gulf Arab summit earlier this year to try to heal the Gulf rift.
In my opinion, the Arab demand for normalization will be a curse on Israel, because it will accelerate the rate of disintegration of its political and racial structure. The Arabs who seek normalization want to improve their relationship with the US administration. This goal has not been clear for seventy years now, Israel is merely a regional mediation office, and it deprives Israeli society of three forces: the power of faith in the Promised Land and the sacrifice for it, the value of historical existential fighting, and the value of Israel's avant-garde image in the fields of globalization, investment and the state of institutions.
Essam Abdel Shafi / President of the Academy of International Relations:
Egypt's political and economic situation in 2019 will be worse than its predecessor, as a result of a new package of IMF requirements that will negatively affect the economic situation and its association with the privatization and restructuring of human resources in government agencies. The government will reduce the size of the labor force. Major social imbalances.
This is in addition to consolidating the system of its powers and guarantees of its continuation after the completion of the procedures of amending the so-called 2014 constitution, which was adopted after the military coup, to pass the survival of President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi until his death.
In the same context, the year 2019 will be a continuation of the great failure in the file of the Sinai Peninsula, in accordance with the systematic policies adopted by the regime to unload it from its population, and the continuing violations against its citizens, to the ultimate goal of completing the procedural steps to implement the deal century, after the excess system itself on the islands of Tiran And Sanafir in 2016 for the benefit of Saudi Arabia, and in the interests of the Zionist entity, which began to public features appear in the declaration of the establishment of the so-called Red Sea entity among several Arab countries, to be joined by Israel officially later.
Mohammed al-Menshawi, a Washington-based political analyst:
- The year 2019 will witness a lot of unprecedented political drama in American history, especially with the start of the presidential elections. Democrats in Congress will try to threaten Trump's legitimacy by preventing him from building the border barrier as he promised his conservative and anti-immigrant electoral bases, which may reduce his chances in the next election. Trump challenges from within his Republican Party to compete for the run for 2020, unlike usual.
- Detective Robert Muller's report could come up with dramatic recommendations if Trump's personal collusion with Russian authorities or the president's knowledge of the complicity of others proves his team, which would call for his dismissal.
- Washington and its institutions will press for accelerating Arab normalization with Israel, even if Trump's deal of the century is not successful after the Israeli elections in April.
- Congress, particularly the Democratic-controlled House of Representatives, will continue to investigate suspicious relations between Trump and Saudi Arabia, Trump's position from Mohammed bin Salman and his responsibility for the death of Jamal Khashoggi. I think Trump will bow to the intelligence services and the pressures of Congress and acknowledge the responsibility of the Saudi Crown Prince, but that will not automatically mean the overthrow of Mohammed bin Salman, the decision must be made in Riyadh.
Ibrahim al-
'Alabi, a Syrian journalist and writer, said: " Given the number of indicators of accelerated normalization with Israel, particularly by the Saudi-UAE axis, 2019 is expected to see a series of other steps likely to establish diplomatic relations and open embassies. Including at least Bahrain, the UAE and Saudi Arabia.
The race for normalization with Israel is mainly linked to the so-called "Deal of the Century", which the administration of US President Donald Trump seeks to pass in every possible way. The deal is expected to be put out in public and will begin to be negotiated in 2019, without the possibility of passing it in the same year.
Syria will see a new Turkish military operation in the early part of the new year, whether in Manbeg, Tal White or Ras Al Ain, or in all of them, concurrently or in a row, on the assumption that Trump really wants to coordinate with Turkey in particular to complete the decision to withdraw from Syria. Likely yet. In general, it became clear that work is under way in the Arab decision to limit the Syrian issue, and 2019 is expected to witness the gradual birth of a new alliance between the Saudi-UAE axis and the regime of Bashar al-Assad, his real concern is the confrontation of the Turkish "danger" and his slogan to separate Assad from Iran.
- The Gulf crisis does not seem to be a tangible development, either towards relaxation or complexity, and we are likely to see a relative decline in the frequency of heated debate between the parties to the crisis.
Yaser Mahjoob / Sudanese writer and academic:
The talk about the fate of Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir on the basis of the recent mass protests does not seem realistic without diving into its backgrounds and causes. It is impossible to envisage an economic breakthrough without political solutions, but the ruling elite sees no security solutions to confront the demonstrators. Accusations of treachery and labor and the return of economic distress to the divine predestination and the international quagmire and the American blockade, as well as promises that the budget of 2019 will bring healing solutions.
This situation in which the regime is losing leads to two choices: confrontation with the people or dealing with the demands of the masses. But the streets of Khartoum have become like a military barracks, and this is not normal and will cause fatigue to the security forces and stop the economy. The continuation of the demonstrations will prompt the outside world to question the prestige of the Authority and its ability to manage the country and will encourage it to intervene.
As the scale of the protests rises to the point of calling for Bashir's departure, his fate could be dramatic unless it is better to deal with these developments. If he has a chance to survive, it is to preside over a transition period that is a government that is completely different from the three-decade-old governments that Bashir has formed. This will only come after a quick and urgent political move that offers convincing solutions and painful surgeries that affect the whole authoritarian hierarchy, with a clear and tightly worded political discourse.
Tariq Nafie al-Mutairi / Kuwaiti writer and researcher:
The size of the Gulf crisis since its inception was significant, and it was clear that the dispute was not confined to some of the claims by the blockade states. It turned out that these claims were only coverage of the intentions of the military invasion of Qatar, prompting the latter to take the necessary measures to protect itself.
Despite American calls to resolve the crisis, the US position has been neutralized for two main reasons: the volatile position and lack of confidence at both ends of the crisis, and the instability of the White House with its occupant Trump, who faces major internal and external problems.
So, given the size and depth of the Gulf crisis, and the angle of view of the parties that have gone beyond the stage of disagreement to hostility. After neutralizing or disrupting the influential American factor in Gulf politics, the crisis seems to continue in 2019 and there is no hope for resolution.
Arif Al-Obaid / Professor of Political Science:
The conflict over Idlib will intensify between Turkey and Russia because of its proximity to the coastal areas. It will remain part of the Turkish strategy and its role in Syria's future, so Turkey will not easily abandon it and will be able to flip the cards if Moscow tries to betray Ankara through the political process agreed upon in Astana. Turkey will control the Kurdish border areas and leave Russia to control the city and Deir al-Zour after the US withdrawal.
In the West, the threat of the far right will increase because of austerity policies, exploitation of the refugee crisis and Russian support for these movements, the greatest threat to Europe's future, not Islamic extremism as rumored.
In the Eastern Mediterranean region, the struggle for control of the gas sources will intensify, and yesterday's enemies will become allies of today through Egyptian-Greek Cypriot-Israeli cooperation against Turkey. Russia will move to protect its interests and join forces with Turkey against the alliance, with the aim of thwarting the plan to extend the pipeline to Europe, and the conflict will increase because of failure to delineate the economic belts of each country, as well as the appetite of international companies to come to exploit gas in the region.
Yaseen al-Tamimi, a Yemeni political analyst:
The year 2018 brought significant developments to Yemen. UN envoy Martin Griffith was able to open a political process at first glance that the United Nations might return Yemenis to the path of peace. But the most serious thing that Griffith accomplished is that he launched an era of separate conflict zones and secured international references, such as resolution 2451 of the Security Council, which fortified the mission of the International Monitoring Mission in Hodeidah and its ports.
This leads to the belief that the Saudi and Emirati wars in Yemen will not go to the ends that their allies expect from the legitimate government. Worse, this agreement demonstrated that Riyadh could compromise after it had sunk into problems of a global nature that could threaten arrangements for the transfer of power in Riyadh.
Based on the UAE's steps toward Damascus, the slogan of confronting the Iranian project in Yemen is no longer supported by the political and moral positions of Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
Therefore, if the Riyadh impasse persists in the light of the escalation against it in the West, and if Iran celebrates its final victory in Syria, we may see new developments in Yemen, such as the removal of President Abed Rabbo Hadi and his authority, ending the war with inconclusive results, Break the current Saudi-Emirati monopoly of power, which in turn is another regional and more serious defeat for Riyadh
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» Government recommendations regarding procedures for tracking the entry of imported goods into local
» Al-Maliki: The imbalance in the salary scale must be addressed and studied again
» The railways announces the preparation of preliminary designs for a development road of about 600 km
» The President of the Republic: There is no dollar crisis in Iraq
» Work: Directed to include all workers, contracts, and wage earners in the Social Security Law
» Zain Cash relaunches the “Western Union” service
» The head of the Integrity Commission calls for increased international support for training investig
» Environment: Launching the Green Bank is considered an advanced step towards a sustainable green eco