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[size=32]The three summits and the prospects for war and peace in the region
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Why did Saudi Arabia request the holding of two emergency summits, the first for the GCC member States and the second for the member states of the League of Arab States, although all member countries of these two regional organizations are members of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, At the end of this month, and the significance of the insistence on holding these three summits in Mecca in particular, a few steps from the Holy Mosque, the most sacred places of worship for all Muslims, and during the last ten of the holy month of Ramadan, the most days of the year spirit Ye have? Are we here in the face of a public relations campaign aimed at recalling the religious status of a state whose president is called the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques? Or are we in the midst of a diplomatic campaign aimed at emphasizing the leadership of Saudi Arabia in all three circles: Gulf, Arab and Islamic? Or is it all a maneuver to form a political cover that would justify and pass the possible US-Israeli war on Iran?
The fact that the three summits in Makkah in particular, and at this particular time, involves all of this. It is clear that Saudi Arabia is seeking to use religious and spiritual feelings related to the place and time in the mobilization and mobilization process, is now preparing for a major confrontation with Iran, political and economic and perhaps military as well, taking advantage of the damage suffered by some of its tankers in the port of Fujairah and the exposure of some of its oil facilities In Najran from an armed attack carried out by Huthi March. Saudi Arabia is expected to receive its weight to get statements from the three summits condemning the Iranian regime and denouncing its pro-terrorist behavior and armed militias in the region. It is also clear that Saudi Arabia is deliberately mixing the cards between what is political and what is religious, and that it is not very concerned about the damage that this confusion may cause to the interests of the peoples of the region, including the interests of its people, especially in the long run.
It should be noted here that the conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia has been growing steadily since the outbreak of the Islamic Revolution in Iran, and that this conflict has never been a traditional political conflict that revolves around different interests and positions between countries, Islamists ", one revolutionary and the other traditional, each seeking to lead the Islamic world as a whole, and impose its own vision and public policies on it. The Iranian regime, founded in the wake of a religious-led revolution that overthrew a US-Israeli ally, is inherently revolutionary and inherently hostile to American and Israeli policies and interests in the region. The Saudi political system, which since its establishment in the mid-1930s, Wahhabism, and externally in the United States, is a traditional system by nature, allied to the United States and defending its interests in the region.
In this context, and in the light of historical experience derived from the development of Saudi-Iranian relations since the outbreak of the Islamic Revolution of Iran until now, it is possible to understand the nature of the objectives that Saudi Arabia seeks to achieve behind the holding of these three summits in Mecca itself, and at this particular time.
Saudi Arabia, which was closely linked to the Shah's regime, was not comfortable with the Iranian revolution and sought to abort it by all means at its disposal. Recognizing that the balance of power between the two countries does not allow it to achieve this goal on its own, it relied on others who share the same goal, which explains why it encouraged Saddam Hussein to wage war against Iran in 1980 and provided generous financial support throughout the entire eight-year war . However, this policy was not designed to serve purely Saudi or Arab objectives, as it was designed to serve the interests and interests of the United States, which sought to extort and weaken both Iran and Iraq, and viewed both as a major threat to Israel. When the war ended with a relative victory for Iraq, Saudi Arabia took part in an American effort to besiege and weaken Iraq after the war, which helped to entice it to invade Kuwait, and eventually ended its destruction and occupation.
When Saudi Arabia found itself alone on the front line with Iran, we found it back to adopt as usual policies that would make it a permanent flight forward. Instead of working to restore the Arab system and strengthen its defensive policies against Iran, it has once again bet on the United States and relied on it to protect its security, which led it to eventually fall into the arms of Israel. In the context of this usual Saudi orientation, it is possible to understand the reasons for rejecting and aborting all initiatives aimed at supporting joint Arab action, beginning with the Damascus Declaration of 1991 and ending with the proposal made by Sisi in 2014 to form a joint Arab force to protect security in the region. The reasons that led to the intervention to abort the revolutions of the Arab Spring, which amounted to the declaration of war on Yemen, on the pretext of protecting the legitimacy and the elimination of Huthi militias backed by Iran, which led to the end of security coordination with Israel, on the pretext of confronting the "common Iranian threat", which exploits The United States is currently to pass the «deal of the century» aimed at the liquidation of the Palestinian issue, turning it into a humanitarian issue that requires economic solutions, not political.
The fact that the three summits in Makkah in particular, and at this particular time, involves all of this. It is clear that Saudi Arabia is seeking to use religious and spiritual feelings related to the place and time in the mobilization and mobilization process, is now preparing for a major confrontation with Iran, political and economic and perhaps military as well, taking advantage of the damage suffered by some of its tankers in the port of Fujairah and the exposure of some of its oil facilities In Najran from an armed attack carried out by Huthi March. Saudi Arabia is expected to receive its weight to get statements from the three summits condemning the Iranian regime and denouncing its pro-terrorist behavior and armed militias in the region. It is also clear that Saudi Arabia is deliberately mixing the cards between what is political and what is religious, and that it is not very concerned about the damage that this confusion may cause to the interests of the peoples of the region, including the interests of its people, especially in the long run.
It should be noted here that the conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia has been growing steadily since the outbreak of the Islamic Revolution in Iran, and that this conflict has never been a traditional political conflict that revolves around different interests and positions between countries, Islamists ", one revolutionary and the other traditional, each seeking to lead the Islamic world as a whole, and impose its own vision and public policies on it. The Iranian regime, founded in the wake of a religious-led revolution that overthrew a US-Israeli ally, is inherently revolutionary and inherently hostile to American and Israeli policies and interests in the region. The Saudi political system, which since its establishment in the mid-1930s, Wahhabism, and externally in the United States, is a traditional system by nature, allied to the United States and defending its interests in the region.
In this context, and in the light of historical experience derived from the development of Saudi-Iranian relations since the outbreak of the Islamic Revolution of Iran until now, it is possible to understand the nature of the objectives that Saudi Arabia seeks to achieve behind the holding of these three summits in Mecca itself, and at this particular time.
Saudi Arabia, which was closely linked to the Shah's regime, was not comfortable with the Iranian revolution and sought to abort it by all means at its disposal. Recognizing that the balance of power between the two countries does not allow it to achieve this goal on its own, it relied on others who share the same goal, which explains why it encouraged Saddam Hussein to wage war against Iran in 1980 and provided generous financial support throughout the entire eight-year war . However, this policy was not designed to serve purely Saudi or Arab objectives, as it was designed to serve the interests and interests of the United States, which sought to extort and weaken both Iran and Iraq, and viewed both as a major threat to Israel. When the war ended with a relative victory for Iraq, Saudi Arabia took part in an American effort to besiege and weaken Iraq after the war, which helped to entice it to invade Kuwait, and eventually ended its destruction and occupation.
When Saudi Arabia found itself alone on the front line with Iran, we found it back to adopt as usual policies that would make it a permanent flight forward. Instead of working to restore the Arab system and strengthen its defensive policies against Iran, it has once again bet on the United States and relied on it to protect its security, which led it to eventually fall into the arms of Israel. In the context of this usual Saudi orientation, it is possible to understand the reasons for rejecting and aborting all initiatives aimed at supporting joint Arab action, beginning with the Damascus Declaration of 1991 and ending with the proposal made by Sisi in 2014 to form a joint Arab force to protect security in the region. The reasons that led to the intervention to abort the revolutions of the Arab Spring, which amounted to the declaration of war on Yemen, on the pretext of protecting the legitimacy and the elimination of Huthi militias backed by Iran, which led to the end of security coordination with Israel, on the pretext of confronting the "common Iranian threat", which exploits The United States is currently to pass the «deal of the century» aimed at the liquidation of the Palestinian issue, turning it into a humanitarian issue that requires economic solutions, not political.
When Saudi Arabia found itself alone on the front line with Iran, it again adopted policies that made it a permanent flight forward
This context of the evolution of Iran-Saudi relations suggests that the real purpose of the three summits in Mecca is to obtain political cover that would justify the war on Iran, or at least maintain pressure on it, through the economic blockade and the military buildup, until it surrenders to all American and Israeli demands. However, achieving this objective is subject to many obstacles: 1. The GCC is divided over itself because of the embargo imposed on the State of Qatar by both Saudi Arabia and Bahrain and with Egyptian participation. Because the Sultanate of Oman, Kuwait and Qatar adopt an approach towards Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Bahrain. 2. The League of Arab States seems to be at its weakest today. Most of its countries are preoccupied with internal issues and conditions, and internal conditions will not allow any countries such as Iraq or Lebanon, in addition to the three Gulf Cooperation Council countries mentioned above, to escalate against Iran.
In any case, even assuming that Saudi Arabia can hold these three summits to issue statements denouncing and denouncing Iranian policies, these statements will have no impact on the course of the conflict. The decision to launch a military strike will ultimately be a joint Israeli-American decision, not a purely Arab decision, or allowing the Arabs to take part in it, and thus serve American-Israeli interests rather than Arab interests. If the decision ends with refusing to direct such a strike, it will also be a purely American decision. It will have only one meaning: Israel's failure to drag Trump's administration into a war with Iran because of purely American calculations regarding the expected gains and losses. Succeeds with Iran, which can in any case wage a long-term war of attrition not only against American and Israeli interests, but also against the interests of their allies in the region.
We hope that Saudi Arabia will wake up and seize the opportunity of these three conferences to create an atmosphere conducive to reconciliations that will allow for the rebuilding of the Gulf and Arab regimes on a more solid basis and to build an Islamic depth in support of efforts to defuse the conflicts in the region. The Palestinian issue is still its first issue, and the Arab states are still united in their will and are determined to achieve a political settlement on the terms set out in the initiative adopted by the Beirut Arab Summit in 2002: Israel's withdrawal from all the Arab territories occupied in 1967, including the Golan Heights and Jerusalem Oz, and the establishment of an independent Palestinian state with its capital in East Jerusalem, in exchange for Arab recognition of the State of Israel within 67, and a willingness to establish diplomatic relations with Israel after the completion of withdrawal from all occupied Arab territories, the process, and in accordance with the established rules of international law.
This hope may seem a distant dream but, in my view, it is the only way to get the Arab world out of its current crisis.
In any case, even assuming that Saudi Arabia can hold these three summits to issue statements denouncing and denouncing Iranian policies, these statements will have no impact on the course of the conflict. The decision to launch a military strike will ultimately be a joint Israeli-American decision, not a purely Arab decision, or allowing the Arabs to take part in it, and thus serve American-Israeli interests rather than Arab interests. If the decision ends with refusing to direct such a strike, it will also be a purely American decision. It will have only one meaning: Israel's failure to drag Trump's administration into a war with Iran because of purely American calculations regarding the expected gains and losses. Succeeds with Iran, which can in any case wage a long-term war of attrition not only against American and Israeli interests, but also against the interests of their allies in the region.
We hope that Saudi Arabia will wake up and seize the opportunity of these three conferences to create an atmosphere conducive to reconciliations that will allow for the rebuilding of the Gulf and Arab regimes on a more solid basis and to build an Islamic depth in support of efforts to defuse the conflicts in the region. The Palestinian issue is still its first issue, and the Arab states are still united in their will and are determined to achieve a political settlement on the terms set out in the initiative adopted by the Beirut Arab Summit in 2002: Israel's withdrawal from all the Arab territories occupied in 1967, including the Golan Heights and Jerusalem Oz, and the establishment of an independent Palestinian state with its capital in East Jerusalem, in exchange for Arab recognition of the State of Israel within 67, and a willingness to establish diplomatic relations with Israel after the completion of withdrawal from all occupied Arab territories, the process, and in accordance with the established rules of international law.
This hope may seem a distant dream but, in my view, it is the only way to get the Arab world out of its current crisis.
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