Saudi Arabia recognizes its weakness and is ready to talk to the Iranian enemy

POSTED ON 2019-10-05 BY SOTALIRAQ

[size=52]Saudi Arabia recognizes its weakness and is ready to talk to the Iranian enemy[/size]

[size=45]Haaretz israel news English - Zvi Bar'el
[size=45]Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi barely opened his bags after last month of his visit to China and hurried to fly to Jeddah for a meeting with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The urgency of the visit on Sept. 25, 10 days after the operation at Saudi oil facilities, appears to be linked to reports and estimates that the missiles and drones involved in the attack came from an Iranian Revolutionary Guard base or Shiite militias on Iraqi soil. Iraqi media, based on information from Abdul Mahdi's office, was informed at the time that the prime minister feared a new war in the region, in which Iraq would be a target and hastened to try to mediate between Iran and Saudi Arabia and perhaps even to organize a meeting in Baghdad between bin Salman and President Hassan spiritual.[/size]
[size=45]This initiative seemed unrealistic, as only two months earlier Iraqi President Saleh Barham proposed a similar initiative, which the Saudis rejected. But now these conditions have changed. A war against Iraq or its territory against pro-Iranian forces is the last thing the Iraqi prime minister, who has been mired in recent days in a violent struggle against thousands of demonstrators demanding his ouster against the backdrop of the country's economic crisis, needs. The demonstrators are not content with just slogans against the corrupt regime and wasting huge money. They are also demanding that the Iranian presence be removed from Iraqi territory and that the Shiite militias operating under Iranian military protection be disbanded and, in return, have Iraqi funding.[/size]
[size=45]On the Saudi side, civil disobedience in Iraq appears to be an opportunity to strengthen its influence in the neighboring country. Its relations with the Iraqi government this year marked an important turning point when Bin Salman for the first time allowed the opening of the border crossing between the two countries and pledged to invest in Iraq's electricity infrastructure. Saudi Arabia is not mired in the illusion that Iraq can or agree to secede from Iran and make Iran withdraw its troops from its territory.[/size]
[size=45]Between Iraq and Iran there is a trade of about $ 12 billion. Baghdad relies on the supply of Iranian electricity and gas, and both countries have religious ties based on their Shiite identity.But Saudi Arabia seems to have realized that in the struggle for regional hegemony, its status is low, and now it is moving to a new strategy of buying influence and access to counterbalance Iranian influence. As part of this strategy, bin Salman announced for the first time in an interview with CBS that problems with Iran and the security of shipping in the Gulf could not be solved by military means and that he supported a diplomatic solution.[/size]
[size=45]These statements, which were welcomed in Iran and praised, are not heavenly revelations that landed on bin Salman. Attacking oil installations has embarrassingly demonstrated Saudi Arabia's military vulnerability and vulnerability. Three weeks after the attack, there is no real evidence of how the attack was carried out, where it came from and who was the direct operators of the drones and cruise missiles. The missile defense system that Saudi Arabia bought for hundreds of millions of dollars did not play its role, Saudi manpower is not sufficiently qualified to face such attacks and the Saudi air force had to rely in part on Pakistani pilots even in ongoing missions such as the war in Yemen. Unlike the US administration, which rushed to blame Iran directly, Saudi Arabia suggested waiting until the results of the investigation were clear and later accused Iran of public responsibility, but not actually carrying out the attack.[/size]
[size=45]If Saudi Arabia had doubts about the United States' readiness to act against Iran, this was reinforced when US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo made clear in his meeting with bin Salman that the decision to respond to Iran would be Saudi, not American, and that Washington would be willing to help, not fight, instead of Riyadh. . US President Donald Trump added that if Saudi Arabia needed help, he would of course be willing to reach out, but the kingdom would have to pay for it.[/size]
[size=45]The only option[/size]
[size=45]The diplomatic track has now become the only realistic option that will map the Middle East, and Saudi Arabia seems to be looking for potential mediators and formulating its terms for negotiations with Iran. Shortly after the annual meeting of the UN General Assembly, Pakistan's Prime Minister Imran Khan said he had received a request from bin Salman and President Trump to try to mediate between Saudi Arabia and Iran. In parallel, Iranian government spokesman Ali Rubaie said Tehran had received letters from bin Salman through a third country without mentioning its name. While Pakistan's prime minister is talking about the mediation mission thrown at him, Middle East Eye on Tuesday published an interview with Abbas Hasnaoui, described as a senior figure in the prime minister's office.[/size]
[size=45]In the interview, Hasnaoui revealed that (bin Salman gave a green light to Iraqi mediation with Iran) and that the Prime Minister of Iraq conveyed between the parties the conditions of each party to conduct negotiations. Hasnaoui added that in recent days, the Iraqi national security adviser Faleh al-Fayyad stayed in Washington to coordinate the course of negotiations. He added that he conveyed to Iraq a message saying "if there is a possibility of a deal involving Saudi Arabia, Iran, Yemen and Iraq - the United States will not oppose it." The day after the interview was published, and against the backdrop of positive Iranian responses, Iranian Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani announced a "direct dialogue between Iran and Saudi Arabia that would solve many political and military problems in the region." It is true that there is no talk of a new Iranian position, since Iran tried last year to[/size]
[size=45]He has examined several times the possibility of negotiations with Riyadh - through Oman and Pakistan as well as through European delegates - but in the face of the media rhetoric going on between both countries, Larijani's statements are of particular importance.[/size]
[size=45]Prefer not to hold breaths. Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir rushed to deny what was published and declared that "brotherly countries" (Iraq) tried to reach a truce and told them that Saudi Arabia always seeks security and stability in the region. Al-Jubeir laid down six conditions for Saudi Arabia's readiness for negotiations, including "stopping Iran's interference in the affairs of other countries, stopping support for terrorist organizations, abandoning the policy of destruction and sowing conflicts, and freezing the plan to develop nuclear weapons and ballistic missile program." But Jubeir declined to say whether these were preconditions for Iran to apply before they could talk about negotiations or that these were the principles on which Saudi Arabia would be based if negotiations developed between them. In any case, it seems that Saudi Arabia is setting very uncertain conditions. Which provides a wide margin for interpretations and general understandings.[/size]
[size=45]Perhaps the possibility of negotiations between Saudi Arabia and Iran lies precisely in a file full of political and military failures recorded under the name of bin Salman - the boycott and siege of Qatar initiated by Saudi Arabia, the farce in Lebanon, where he tried to cause the dismissal of Prime Minister Saad Hariri, the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, who was introduced Saudi Arabia to the quagmire of pariah states in the West. Military failure in Yemen The UAE has abandoned the Yemeni arena, and now attack oil facilities. All these classify Bin Salman as a failed leader, unable to defend his country's interests. Around him there were princes expelled from their posts. Saudi billionaires extorted money from them and were forced to pay billions to the state treasury after they were arrested in 2017, waiting for the moment when they could avenge their insult.[/size]
[size=45]The death or death of King Salman's bodyguard “Abdul Aziz Al-Fagham” This week, he received an official criminal account saying that his friend killed him on the basis of personal differences of opinion, but in Saudi Arabia they prefer the novel published by the unknown singer (Mujtahid), which says that Al-Fagham was killed In the palace and not in his friend's house. According to the singer, who used to publish controversial reports about what is happening at the royal court, bin Salman saw in his heart an unfaithful person and sought to appoint one of his relatives instead. Thus, the king's bodyguard is now occupied by Saad al-Qahtani, a cousin of Saud al-Qahtani, a former adviser to bin Salman, who has emerged as an accused of plotting to kill Khashoggi last year.[/size]
[size=45]Running two fronts against regional and international adversaries, as well as reluctant US support, would push bin Salman to a new diplomatic track in front of Iran in order to reduce the threat to the kingdom and reduce the number of[/size]
[size=45]Explosive files to be processed. While the United States is pushing for direct negotiations with Iran, bin Salman will have to adapt to be part of the process and not keep Saudi Arabia in the best sphere of influence[/size]


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