[size=39]The Power Struggle ... Why are Turkey and Iran competing for Iraq?
Free / Subtitles - Washington
March 14, 2021
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Free / Subtitles - Washington
March 14, 2021
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The reason for the disagreement between Iran and Turkey in Iraq is due to considerations of "the balance of power" and the two countries' pursuit of "greater influence" in the region, in parallel with "an intense economic race," according to an analysis published by the " [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] " magazine .
The analysis says that Tehran is particularly concerned that Ankara may use its anti-Kurdish campaign to establish a long-term military presence in Sinjar, as it previously did in northern Syria and the Iraqi province of Dohuk.
Given that Iraq and Syria are the two main components of its "strategic depth," Iran has a "zero-sum approach to these countries," meaning that Tehran is fundamentally unwilling to share its perceived strategic sphere of influence with adversaries.
In 2019, Turkey exported $ 10.2 billion worth of goods to Iraq, slightly exceeding Iran's exports of $ 9.6 billion during the same period, according to the same magazine.
Turkish companies have also invested about $ 25 billion in 900 construction and infrastructure projects - including energy, water, and petrochemical industries - in various Iraqi cities.
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A military post on the border between Turkey and Iraq
There is also increasing competition between Tehran and Ankara in producing electricity in Iraq, which was previously dominated by Iranian companies.
Besides, Turkey considers its geographical location at the crossroads of Eastern Europe and Western Asia a unique geo-economic advantage, and it increasingly seeks to monopolize transit routes in neighboring regions.
Although the two non-Arab regional powers have historically tried to define their interests and spheres of influence in the Arab world in a way that avoids friction and direct competition, in the wake of the escalation of anti-Iranian sentiment in Iraq and the assassination of the Revolutionary Guard General, Qassem Soleimani, Turkish leaders may have concluded that the time has come. It is time to defeat the Iranian influence in Iraq and restore what they consider to be a historical role for Turkey in this country, according to the analysis.
However, the current path of competition carries the risk of an unwanted clash, because the strict Iranian and Turkish approaches towards their actual or perceived areas of influence can easily lead to escalation, if one of the parties decides to challenge the interests of the other side.
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The movements of Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq and al-Nujaba threatened Turkish forces in northern Iraq in the event of an "invasion of Sinjar."
“If a possible Turkish campaign in Sinjar leads to a confrontation between Turkey and the Iraqi PMF groups backed by Iran, it is difficult to assume that Iran will sit idly by and let the Turks go ahead as they want,” the analysis says.
Although Tehran shares Ankara's concerns about the Kurdish rebellion in northern Iraq, its concerns about the long-term repercussions of an extended Turkish military campaign have put the two sides at odds over the situation in Sinjar.
In the wake of Erdogan's threat to invade Sinjar, the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces close to the Iranian regime deployed thousands of soldiers in three brigades in Sinjar to counter what they see as Ankara's intention to occupy parts of their country.
Turkish media considered this step as an intervention by the Popular Mobilization Forces to save the PKK, and an indication of Iran's support for the Kurdish militants.
On February 10, Ankara carried out a military operation in the Gara Mountains in the Iraqi province of Dohuk to release a number of Turkish hostages held by the PKK.
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Diplomatic meetings between Iran and Turkey hardly conceal their conflict in Iraq
After the failure of the operation, and the killing of thirteen hostages, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatened that Turkey would expand its campaign against the PKK to Sinjar, a strategic area on the Iraqi border with Syria.
This tension comes despite the fact that, in June 2020, Tehran and Ankara launched simultaneous air and artillery strikes against Kurdish rebels in northern Iraq, which sparked speculation that they were coordinated operations between the two parties.
The widespread popular protests in Iraq in late 2019 against the Iranian role were the first major sign of this deterioration, while the assassination of Soleimani dealt the most severe blow to Tehran's influence in Iraq.
In May 2020, the Iranian-backed prime minister, Adel Abdul Mahdi, was replaced by Mustafa Al-Kazemi, who is more independent trying to maintain a balanced relationship with Iran and Iraq's other neighbors, including Saudi Arabia, the countries of the Arabian Peninsula and Turkey.
Masjedi said in an interview with the "Kurdish Rudaw" channel that Iran "does not accept to intervene militarily in Iraq, whether it is Turkey or any other country."
The Turkish envoy to Iraq, Fatih Yildiz, responded on Twitter, saying that his Iranian counterpart "will be the last person to lecture Turkey on respecting the borders of Iraq."
In the wake of this dispute, Tehran and Ankara summoned the ambassadors to formally express their anger.
On the other hand, the Speaker of the Iraqi Parliament, Muhammad al-Halbousi, called for respecting the sovereignty of his country and not to interfere in its affairs, a clear reference to the media exchange between the Iranian and Turkish ambassadors to Baghdad.
Al-Halbousi wrote on Twitter: “Representatives of diplomatic missions in Iraq have a duty to represent their countries and to enhance cooperation between the two countries.
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The analysis says that Tehran is particularly concerned that Ankara may use its anti-Kurdish campaign to establish a long-term military presence in Sinjar, as it previously did in northern Syria and the Iraqi province of Dohuk.
Given that Iraq and Syria are the two main components of its "strategic depth," Iran has a "zero-sum approach to these countries," meaning that Tehran is fundamentally unwilling to share its perceived strategic sphere of influence with adversaries.
Economic race
In addition, Turkey is also the main economic competitor of Iran in the Iraqi market, according to the analysis.In 2019, Turkey exported $ 10.2 billion worth of goods to Iraq, slightly exceeding Iran's exports of $ 9.6 billion during the same period, according to the same magazine.
Turkish companies have also invested about $ 25 billion in 900 construction and infrastructure projects - including energy, water, and petrochemical industries - in various Iraqi cities.
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A military post on the border between Turkey and Iraq
There is also increasing competition between Tehran and Ankara in producing electricity in Iraq, which was previously dominated by Iranian companies.
Besides, Turkey considers its geographical location at the crossroads of Eastern Europe and Western Asia a unique geo-economic advantage, and it increasingly seeks to monopolize transit routes in neighboring regions.
Although the two non-Arab regional powers have historically tried to define their interests and spheres of influence in the Arab world in a way that avoids friction and direct competition, in the wake of the escalation of anti-Iranian sentiment in Iraq and the assassination of the Revolutionary Guard General, Qassem Soleimani, Turkish leaders may have concluded that the time has come. It is time to defeat the Iranian influence in Iraq and restore what they consider to be a historical role for Turkey in this country, according to the analysis.
Military confrontation?
Although Turkey does not seek a confrontation with Iran in Iraq, it is looking forward to strengthening its strategic influence over its southern neighbors in the long term, according to the analysis.However, the current path of competition carries the risk of an unwanted clash, because the strict Iranian and Turkish approaches towards their actual or perceived areas of influence can easily lead to escalation, if one of the parties decides to challenge the interests of the other side.
[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
The movements of Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq and al-Nujaba threatened Turkish forces in northern Iraq in the event of an "invasion of Sinjar."
Previous tension
In February 2020, Iran and Turkey were on the verge of a direct confrontation in Idlib, after Iranian-backed militias deployed for the first time in northwestern Syria to take part in the fight against the Turkish-backed rebels.“If a possible Turkish campaign in Sinjar leads to a confrontation between Turkey and the Iraqi PMF groups backed by Iran, it is difficult to assume that Iran will sit idly by and let the Turks go ahead as they want,” the analysis says.
Although Tehran shares Ankara's concerns about the Kurdish rebellion in northern Iraq, its concerns about the long-term repercussions of an extended Turkish military campaign have put the two sides at odds over the situation in Sinjar.
In the wake of Erdogan's threat to invade Sinjar, the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces close to the Iranian regime deployed thousands of soldiers in three brigades in Sinjar to counter what they see as Ankara's intention to occupy parts of their country.
Turkish media considered this step as an intervention by the Popular Mobilization Forces to save the PKK, and an indication of Iran's support for the Kurdish militants.
On February 10, Ankara carried out a military operation in the Gara Mountains in the Iraqi province of Dohuk to release a number of Turkish hostages held by the PKK.
[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
Diplomatic meetings between Iran and Turkey hardly conceal their conflict in Iraq
After the failure of the operation, and the killing of thirteen hostages, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatened that Turkey would expand its campaign against the PKK to Sinjar, a strategic area on the Iraqi border with Syria.
This tension comes despite the fact that, in June 2020, Tehran and Ankara launched simultaneous air and artillery strikes against Kurdish rebels in northern Iraq, which sparked speculation that they were coordinated operations between the two parties.
So what has changed in less than a year?
Recently, Iranian leaders have become under the impression that their influence in Iraq is diminishing, and that the anti-Iranian atmosphere is controlling the country.The widespread popular protests in Iraq in late 2019 against the Iranian role were the first major sign of this deterioration, while the assassination of Soleimani dealt the most severe blow to Tehran's influence in Iraq.
In May 2020, the Iranian-backed prime minister, Adel Abdul Mahdi, was replaced by Mustafa Al-Kazemi, who is more independent trying to maintain a balanced relationship with Iran and Iraq's other neighbors, including Saudi Arabia, the countries of the Arabian Peninsula and Turkey.
Cross-talk
Weeks ago, the Iranian ambassador to Iraq, Iraj Masjedi, on February 27, criticized the Turkish military intervention in Iraq, calling on Ankara to withdraw its forces from there.Masjedi said in an interview with the "Kurdish Rudaw" channel that Iran "does not accept to intervene militarily in Iraq, whether it is Turkey or any other country."
The Turkish envoy to Iraq, Fatih Yildiz, responded on Twitter, saying that his Iranian counterpart "will be the last person to lecture Turkey on respecting the borders of Iraq."
In the wake of this dispute, Tehran and Ankara summoned the ambassadors to formally express their anger.
On the other hand, the Speaker of the Iraqi Parliament, Muhammad al-Halbousi, called for respecting the sovereignty of his country and not to interfere in its affairs, a clear reference to the media exchange between the Iranian and Turkish ambassadors to Baghdad.
Al-Halbousi wrote on Twitter: “Representatives of diplomatic missions in Iraq have a duty to represent their countries and to enhance cooperation between the two countries.
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