[size=32][rtl]Iraq after the collapse ... How will it be? - Saif Ibrahim[/rtl]
March 27, 2021
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Iraq after the collapse ... How will it be? - Saif Ibrahim
Depending on the many experiences, no political system, no matter how dictatorial or even idealistic, will not strengthen the utilitarian limit to endure eternally, yes it may last for a long time, but it will definitely age, and according to the expression of sociologists that the state (the political system in the modern and contemporary concept) has a life cycle between the beginning and the climax And then the end, there is no doubt that the forms of the endings also differ according to the circumstances and the fate of the events and the causes of the fall. They may be internal or external, or both of them together.
According to this fact that cannot be altered, the current political system in Iraq, which came on the ruins of the Baathist regime through the occupation, must disappear even if most of those in charge of it believed that their power was extended and no one dared to remove them, since the establishment of the modern Iraqi state in 1921. Until the year 2003, various regimes with different ideologies succeeded in governing Iraq, from a monarchy to a communist regime and then a totalitarian republic with a secular overtones, and although some of them were able to advance Iraq and place it in advanced ranks among countries, but it was able to continue long and quickly It fell, and some of it was bad. Yes, it lasted for more than three decades and its end was definitely inevitable.
But all the experiences of the previous regimes that took power in Iraq are radically different from the current regime, and therefore the end of this regime (and it will undoubtedly disappear no matter how long it takes) also differs in its results from all of the above for several reasons, including:
[list="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: droid-naskh; font-size: 15px; box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px; padding-right: 0px; padding-left: 0px;"][*][rtl]1. Since the formation of the modern Iraqi state until the year 2003, Iraq was not governed according to a religious (Twelver Shiite) ideology, most of which believed in the extension of its rule until the emergence of Imam al-Mahdi (PBUH) and which in essence harmonizes with what the Islamic Republic of Iran is based on.[/rtl]
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Official forces
2. Throughout the rule of Iraq, the official armed forces did not have any other supplementary extension to them, equivalent in strength or even superior to them in equipment and numbers, and this is quite the opposite of what is in the current system.
[list=3][*][rtl]3. Everyone who ruled Iraq until the year 2003 believed in the reality of the state, its geographical boundaries, and its specific positivist system, while the current belief system of most Shiites of power does not believe in borders and believes according to this perspective that the religious concept has superiority over the national concept, and this characteristic justifies a dangerous point Very, it is that the religious will is given priority over the national will, while it does not oppose it, and the religious will here will be an expression of the interest of another country, most likely![/rtl]
[*][rtl]4. The ruling heads were never multiplied as now, and there was no concept of constituent representation in anything. The color of the rule was one par excellence, and the authority was in the hands of a specific group, while the authorities here were divided and the identities expanded![/rtl]
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How will this system end and what are the consequences of the fall after all these disparities?
Therefore, this political process is not toppled except in two ways that are not a third. As for the first method (the security and military collapse), it is a repetition of what happened in mid-2014, when a third of the area of Iraq fell to ISIS and the military system collapsed overnight, meaning that the tool and implementation will be external to a degree. Very large . Or through a popular revolution (the economic factor), in which the street rises up against the usurpers of their rights and avenges their condition, a people who starved it and approved it and worked to establish a society dominated by illiteracy and ignorance thinking that by this they would be a docile tool in their hands and not able to repel grievance, and they did not realize that the people are with these specifications It can only be ruled by tyranny and disconnection from the outside world in order to remain shackled and satisfied, and since the current regime will not have the reins of applied oppression and repression and because the world has become a small village that affects and is affected.
Time bomb
This means that the people, in the current circumstances, are a time bomb that will quickly explode and uproot them from the roots, and this is the second way. Yes, there are external parties that will take advantage of this scene and intend to pass their plans and implement their agendas, but the cause will remain the corruption of the authority and its ugly intrusion.
What happens after the fall? The fall of the current political process means that Iraq will not remain united, but rather will be divided beyond doubt, or at least it will suffer chaos and civil strife (constituents and sectarian), because the Shiites have more armed factions than the ability of any upcoming political system to end them or even reduce them. The impact of their presence and thus will not allow the Shiite political class to dislodge them from power because they were forced to use force, and this reinforces the hypothesis of chaos and division. As for the Kurds, they are most prepared to declare their state, which Kirkuk lacks only, and as soon as they find weakness and chaos, they will not delay in annexing it and declaring secession, and this is the first and most likely possibility, and declaring Kirkuk is a Kurdish governorate completely under the control of the Peshmerga during the entry of ISIS into Iraq, but he is a witness to these intentions. Bad that Kurdish leaders carry.
{Political researcher
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