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Friday, December 10, 2021 8:26 PM
[size]Follow-up / National News Center
With the passage of the fourth anniversary of Iraq's declaration of victory over the terrorist organization ISIS after 3 years of war and its control over about two-thirds of the area of Iraqi cities, the remaining elements of the organization intensified the pace of their attacks on the military and civilians in various regions, taking advantage of the current security and political situation in Iraq.
The movements of ISIS in Iraq raise questions about the possibility of its return again and the extent of its danger, and how did the organization’s shape and strategy become after about 48 months of defeat?
Two experts specializing in international terrorism issues agreed, during their interview with "Sky News Arabia", that ISIS will adopt a new tactic that is commensurate with the current conditions in which the organization is experiencing, after losing geographical space and some of the organization's leaders, funding sources and weapons.
Over the past months, ISIS has been seeking to re-emerge, and its elements announced the control of the village of Lahiban in the Dibis district of Kirkuk, northern Iraq, last Sunday, before the Peshmerga and Iraqi forces recovered it about hours after the attack.
Over the past days, the movement of the sleeper cells of the organization has been active at the contact points between Baghdad and Erbil, and it has caused the death of 23 civilians and soldiers of the Peshmerga forces in an attack on Makhmour district, located between southeast of Mosul and southwest of Erbil.
This attack was not the first to target northern Iraq recently, as ISIS launched another attack on a security point earlier this month, killing about 5 Peshmerga forces and wounding 4 others.
And at the beginning of this year, ISIS carried out its first attack after its defeat in targeting the Iraqi capital, Baghdad, with two double attacks in a market in Tayaran Square in the center of the capital, which led to the death of at least 32 people.
On December 10, 2017, the Iraqi forces, with the support of the international coalition, managed to besiege ISIS on the Iraqi-Syrian border, north of the Euphrates, from the Rumana area to Tal Safok, and control the Al-Waleed port to the Rabi’a port after the liberation of areas in the provinces of Nineveh and Anbar, the last strongholds of the organization.
At the time, the Iraqi government announced the defeat of ISIS and the end of the war by taking full control of the Iraqi-Syrian border and expelling its members from Iraqi cities.
gang war
Since the middle of this year, observers have warned of the gradual return of ISIS to its old strongholds in Iraq, especially after monitoring the organization's attempts to attack security points and assassinate local leaders to restore its ranks stronger and gain new elements.
And the Iraqi intelligence also observed an unusual public appearance of more than 50 members of the organization, last September, between Kirkuk, Diyala and Nineveh in northern Iraq.
The security and military expert, retired Major General Imad Alo, explains that the organization is still increasing the pace of its attacking operations on weak points, taking advantage of the security inattention and the low level of training of forces in the governorates of Diyala, Salah al-Din and southwest of Kirkuk, in addition to movements southwest of Mosul and the extension of the Iraqi-Syrian border, where The number of ISIS remnants in the two countries is estimated at about 10,000 militants.
Alouh explains the tactic of ISIS in carrying out attacks by sniping at night over long distances, and attacking and setting ambushes for the reserve forces that are being pushed to support the targeted security points, referring to ISIS followers of “guerrilla warfare” with an attack between 3 to 5 armed people with motorcycles or booby-trapped wheels. Then withdraw and elude again, taking advantage of the difficult geographical terrain and vegetation in their areas, especially since the organization lacks the ability to manufacture weapons and relies on light weapons only.
Does he come back?
On the possibility of the organization occupying Iraqi cities again, Basma Fayed, a researcher at the European Center for Counter-Terrorism and Intelligence Studies, says that the recent attack on the Peshmerga forces and the attempt to control the village of Lahiban in Kirkuk does not mean the return of ISIS to occupy new geographical areas in Iraq, given that the organization has limited capabilities. After the intensification of Iraqi forces and the international coalition military operations against him.
Fayed explains that since the defeat of ISIS in 2017 until 2021, its members live a life similar to the life of "travelers" because they constantly move between mountains and valleys in search of shelter, resources and remote areas to carry out their attacks and cut off the road to obtain royalties.
Regarding the geographical area in which the organization is present, Fayed indicates that the number of the organization’s fighters in Iraq ranges between 2500-3000 members and they are distributed in the areas of the Hamrin Mountains, the areas between Kirkuk and Mosul, and the slopes of the Qara Jokh Mountains near the municipalities of Gwer Makhmour east of Nineveh Governorate, and the Anbar desert Valley of Tea, and East Samarra.
ISIS does not have heavy weapons and relies on Kalashnikovs in most of its attacks, as the security authorities revealed that it used medium weapons in an attack it launched in eastern Iraq last October, according to Fayed's statements.
Exhaustion and recruitment
“Effortless attrition and provocation of forces.” With this phrase, security expert Imad Alo describes ISIS’s current strategy against Iraqi forces and the Peshmerga, by carrying out continuous attacks in different directions and at different times with the aim of confusing the forces and investing attacks in the media to recruit elements and create new incubators, so it seeks to maintain cumulative operations on the line of contact Between the Iraqi-Syrian border.
The researcher, Basma Fayed, agrees with the previous opinion, and points out that the years of defeat and the loss of funding sources, armaments, and human elements forced ISIS to change its plans from large-scale operations and high-level cyber attacks and funding to a “hit and run” strategy by targeting remote villages, government headquarters and military points so that it becomes difficult for the military apparatus to Security is tracking them.
In June 2014, ISIS took Mosul as the seat of its alleged caliphate after taking control of the city of Fallujah at the beginning of the same year, and gradually the terrorist organization expanded in Sinjar, Tikrit, Ramadi, Salah al-Din and Kirkuk, before the Iraqi forces launched a campaign “We are coming, Nineveh” in October 2016 to liberate Mosul from the grip of Organization.[/size]
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