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- WED, 03-16-2022,PM 7:02
- KARAR AL ASADI
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By: Dr. Nabil Al Marsoumi
The Ministry of Finance submitted a presentation to the Federal Court on the case No. 32 / Federal / 2022, some of which stated the following:
1- It was stated in the presentation on page 11 that the 2021 budget deficit would have reached 43 trillion dinars in the event that the dollar exchange rate remained = 1118 dinars, while The Ministry of Finance presented the draft budget to Parliament with a deficit of 71 trillion dinars with a change in the exchange rate to 1450 dinars per dollar before Parliament reduced the deficit to about 29 trillion dinars.
2- On page 15 it refers to the allocation of 4.2 trillion dinars to the increase in the pensions of retirees in 2021. What happened in the 2021 budget draft is that it subjected the salaries of retirees to the income tax to which employees are subject, and which was increased to include the total salary instead of the nominal ranks, and it also subjected retirees’ rewards to A tax of 10% before Parliament repeals this article in the final version of the 2021 budget that Parliament enacted.
3- It is true that part of the price hike is due to its rise in the global market due to the Corona pandemic, which raised the cost of shipping, especially, as well as the drought that many regions of the world were exposed to, but the increase in the exchange rate of the dollar against the dinar played a major role in the rise of imported goods and in The increase in the prices of locally produced goods due to the high prices of imported production requirements, which negatively affected the lives of citizens, especially the vulnerable segments.
4- The decrease in the exchange rate of the dinar has led, according to the Ministry of Finance, to an increase in oil revenues by 23%, i.e. the same percentage of the exchange rate reduction, as the oil revenues planned in the draft budget law were $50.344 billion (73 trillion dinars at the new exchange rate of 1450) higher than 56,172 trillion dinars at the old exchange rate of 1118, meaning that the Ministry of Finance has achieved an increase in oil revenues, denominated in dinars, by 16.828 trillion dinars.
This method of calculating is incorrect because there are obligations on the government that should be paid in dollars and not in dinars, such as the costs of oil licensing rounds, foreign debt service installments, government imports of electricity, gas and other goods, and the expenses of diplomatic missions abroad and others. These expenses will not be less than 23 billion dollars, which must be subtracted from Oil revenues before converting them to the dinar and when we do that, the net revenues will be 27.344 billion dollars, which is equivalent to the new exchange rate 39.649 trillion dinars and the old exchange rate 30.570 trillion dinars, meaning that the net increase was only 9.079 trillion dinars, 12.4% of the total oil revenues, not 23%, as stated in Payments of the Ministry of Finance on page 26.
5- With regard to the direct benefits of devaluing the dinar included on page 28 through the decline in imports during the first 9 months of 2021 compared to the same period in 2020, there are two observations:
The first.. The comparison with an abnormal year such as 2020 does not give reliable scientific results that serve as a basis for evaluating the results. Therefore, the comparison should have been with the same period in 2019 and not 2020.
The second.. The comparison included only imports registered at official outlets, which decreased from 14 billion dollars in 2020 to 11 billion dollars in 2021, and ignored Iraq’s imports from unofficial outlets and Kurdistan outlets, which will raise the value of commodity imports to more than 40 billion dollars annually.
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