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- FRI, 03-25-2022, AM 9:50
- TAYSEER AL-ASSADI
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By: Mustafa Fahs
The tripartite alliance (Al-Sadr - Barzani - Al-Halbousi) resolved its issue, and announced the completion of its political and constitutional quorum in preparation for the next parliamentary session on Saturday, the 26th of this month. In the political quorum, the coalition established its vertical structure (Kurdish - Sunni - Shiite) and specified the names of its candidates for the presidency and the ministers, and this means that the Iraqi political forces will enter the parliament session without consensus, which indicates that the coalition adheres to the project of a national majority government under the slogan “Save the nation.” “And blocking the road, even temporarily, on consensus with other forces, specifically Kurdish and Shiite, which raises the question about the possibility of the success of the session, i.e., the completion of its constitutional quorum.
In the constitutional quorum, the language of numbers intervenes away from the struggle to determine the largest bloc in the Federal Court or under the dome of Parliament, but it is clear that the Shiite parties (the current and the framework) need approximately the same number of votes, between 30 to 35 votes as a prerequisite for the former to own a majority of 220 seats As for the second, he needs it in order to raise the number of his seats to 110 in order to secure the blocking third, and so far there is ambiguity in the number of numbers, doubting that the two parties have not yet been able to reach their goals, so a sharp competition is taking place between them to attract independent representatives (the majority of whom are Shiites). They have turned into a weighty egg, as their position next Saturday will determine not only the shape of the next power, but their choices that will pave the way for the reconfiguration of the system or its eventual fragmentation.
So, between a political quorum and a constitutional one, Iraq is going through a phase of re-formation, which may open a clash between the remainder of the 2003 regime and the new (incomplete) regime that began to form as a public space on October 1, 2019, and its political features crystallized in the parliamentary elections 2021. But the dilemma facing the entire Iraqi political process is that adherents to the former insist on its horizontal formations, that is, component majorities and consensual power, and this means a call to share power in accordance with what was established by the 2003 regime and away from the political and social repercussions of the “October Uprising” and the results of the recent elections, i.e. What can be considered a denial of the results of the intifada and the elections.
As for the second, it is going through a difficult ordeal, as a result of discrepancies in the approach, which prevent a complete fusion between its components, especially the Shiites, that is, between those that left the 2003 regime and were formed after 2021. The dilemma here is that the strongest party in what can be called the 2021 regime has not cut its ties with some of the parties to the 2003 regime. He also settles his accounts with each other, and is accused by his opponents in the two systems of trying to isolate the first and inherit the second. As for its other components, especially those that were formed in 2019 and participated in the elections, they are still divided in their understanding of the political process. Some of them are stuck in their position on all the political class without exception and refuse to enter into any kind of partial or total settlements, while the wisest party exercises political flexibility. It calls for some pragmatism and conditional participation with guarantees under the slogan of priorities in political choices. Therefore, the task of the independents (the Shiites) is the most difficult, and they have only two options; Either refuse to participate in the political process and remain in the opposition, or engage in gradual participation in power.
Therefore, the last word in the upcoming parliament session is for the Shiite independents, as they are the minority that will control the future of the majority, after they have a quorum (constitutional and political), either they give their confidence to one of the parties or they withhold it from everyone, and in both cases the repercussions are great and dangerous, so The first session is not only a condition for holding a quorum, both political and constitutional, but there is a need for a historic settlement that the current political class seems not yet qualified to achieve.
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