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Fateful Saturday..the end of parliament or setting the scene of Iraq for 4 years?
25 March 2022
Fateful Saturday..the end of parliament or setting the scene of Iraq for 4 years?
25 March 2022
Ultra Iraq - Editorial Team
Attention is directed to the House of Representatives, which will hopefully hold its session dedicated to electing the president of the republic tomorrow, Saturday, March 26, after a round of delays and obstacles that prevented the resolution of the presidential file, while this session is considered fateful and based on the game of "coaxing and imposing wills" according to politicians. And it will determine the fate and shape of the next government and the parties most controlling the political scene for the next four years.
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What reinforces the actual difficulty of achieving the tripartite alliance for the quorum to elect the president of the republic are the repeated messages of the leader of the Sadrist movement that he addresses to the independents
It seems that the obstacles still exist, amid data indicating the difficult position of the "Save the Homeland" coalition, which is made up of the trio (the Sadrist bloc, the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Sovereignty), and their inability to achieve the two-thirds quorum for holding the presidential election session, which requires the presence of 220 deputies.
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The oscillating number, which is considered the secret number for settling the session, is 30 deputies, as the "Save the Nation" coalition is speaking, certain that more than 190 deputies will attend the session, while reliance is on 40 independent deputies, but other opinions confirm that part of these forty independents [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] Among the 190 seats that have been decided.
What reinforces the actual difficulty of the "Save the Nation" coalition achieving a quorum for the election of the President of the Republic, are the [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] the leader of the Sadrist movement that he sends to independents, according to observers, while the last of which was [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] in which the independents demanded "neutrality", which is represented in attending the session without voting, considering that the absence of attendance The session is "neutrality" waving at the "end" of the House of Representatives if the session does not take place.
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]The difficult position of the Sadrist movement and its allies became clearer on [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] , in a tweet in which he addressed the "coordinating framework" accusing it of "cunning" by inventing the "blocking third" and its shedding "against the Shiites", in response to the framework's accusations The Sadrist movement accused the Shiites of "taking away the right of the Shiites" to form the largest bloc, while he indicated that the framework, if it was in the position of the movement, would play its role by "forming a larger bloc with the Sunnis and the Kurds in isolation from the Shiites of the current," wondering "what will they do when the movement will work to form the blocking third as well" ".
In terms of numbers, the "Save the Homeland" coalition includes about 177 seats, while the 18 seats of "Extension" and "The New Generation" are counted with the front that will attend the session, bringing the total to 195 deputies, although the "Extension" movement did not reveal its final position. after.
In an interview with "Ultra Iraq", the representative of "Extension" Nissan Al-Zayer confirmed that "its alliance will announce its position this evening after holding a meeting, while noting that there is no clarity of vision regarding the future of the session after and the possibility of surprises in the last moments."
Observers believe that Emtada'a's failure to disclose its position is an attempt to maneuver, suggesting that Emtada'a and the new generation will attend the session, especially since they have stated more than once that "absence from sessions is a constitutional violation that they should not do."
The matter is confirmed by a [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] by the representative of the "Extension" movement, Hamid Al-Shiblawy, as "as independents, we will attend the parliament session for the benefit of society."
Al-Shiblawy said, "We support the majority government so that we can diagnose the responsibility for success or failure, and the party that forms that government will have full responsibility before the people for the failure of services and the achievement of citizens' aspirations, so the majority government is a new changing factor in the Iraqi reality so that we can determine its responsibility for failure and success ".
In summary, the presence of 195 deputies will require about 25 deputies to hold the session, which is less than the number of independents remaining when excluding “Extension” and the new generation, which number 18, where 22 deputies remain, 6 of them are in the “Eshraqa Kanon” bloc, and 16 others are single.
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The KDP's moves are taking place towards the Azm coalition headed by Muthanna Al-Samarrai, which has about 12 seats
The presence of only 195 deputies guaranteed to attend the session, confirmed by a member of the State of Law coalition affiliated with the “coordinating framework,” Ahmed al-Sufi, who refers to “Ultra Iraq” that “the framework guarantees 133 deputies on his side, and that they will not attend tomorrow’s session,” which is the remaining number. Approximately from the total number of parliament seats when the 195 deputies are excluded.
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In line with these facts, the KDP's moves are taking place towards the "Azm" coalition headed by Muthanna al-Samarrai, which has about 12 seats, in an attempt to dissuade him from his position and persuade him to attend tomorrow's session. However, he did not rule out the possibility of persuading him if he gave him "a piece of the cake", as he described it.
On the other hand, Al-Sufi rules out the possibility of convincing and withdrawing the "PUK" by the "Save a Homeland" coalition and its agreement with the Kurdistan Democratic Party, noting that "the union was consistent in the vision from the beginning with the rule of law and remained steadfast in its position," considering that "the consensus of the Democrat and the Union It has become a thing of the past, especially since the Democrat wants to pull the rug out from the PUK.”
And in the event that the Kurdistan Democratic Party succeeds in withdrawing a coalition of resolve headed by Muthanna al-Samarrai towards attending the session, especially after the party delegation’s visit to al-Samarrai today, Friday, the number guaranteed to attend the session will rise to 207 deputies, and only 13 seats will be left for the “Save a Homeland” coalition to try to obtain. From the presence of a number of the remaining 22 independent deputies.
It seems that the Kurdistan Democratic Party is required to succeed in this task by wooing al-Samarrai, after he "deprived" al-Sadr of joining the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan on his side, and al-Halbousi succeeded in winning over part of the Azm alliance, headed by "Khamis al-Khanjar".
It was not possible for "Ultra Iraq" to obtain a comment from the Kurdistan Democratic Party regarding whether it touched preliminary data on the possibility of luring the Azm alliance headed by al-Samarrai to attend the session.
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