US website: Iraq is unable to compensate for Russian oil losses
He explained that the Middle East appears to be the only resort with sufficient production capacity to compensate for the shortfall in supplies if Europe decides to dispense with Russian oil.
But the question is whether any of the big producers have the technical capacity let alone the willingness to provide such assistance?
The site answered this question that Europe should not rely on it, while the International Energy Agency was quoted as saying that the European Union's imposition of the embargo on Russian oil may lead to a shortage of 2.2 million barrels per day in crude oil supplies, in addition to 1.2 barrels per day in supplies of petroleum products.
Although the Middle East possesses about half of the world's proven oil reserves and most of its surplus production capacity, the lack of investment in infrastructure, conflicts, political alliances, and sanctions prevent the region from coming to the rescue of Europe.
The site takes the example of Saudi Arabia and the UAE to suggest the possibility of not responding to European calls to increase their production, as the two countries possess, according to Amina Bakr of Energy Intelligence, the lion's share of OPEC's spare production capacity, which is estimated at 2.5 million barrels per day.
But Saudi Arabia, which is the largest oil producer in the "OPEC", has repeatedly rejected US calls to increase its production above the quota agreed upon with Russia and other non-OPEC producers.
There is, of course, the possibility of diverting oil shipments from the region to Asian countries, but the site indicates that this will threaten the growing strategic partnership between the region and China, which is the main buyer of Middle Eastern oil.
The CEO of "Sea Markets" Youssef Al-Shammari in London believes that Iraq, which currently produces 4.34 million barrels per day out of a maximum production capacity of 5 million barrels per day, can increase its production by 660,000 barrels per day, but sectarian divisions and the political impasse They mean that it cannot be relied upon to make up for the deficiency.
The lack of the necessary infrastructure to increase production and investments in petroleum products takes years to bear fruit.
As for Libya, it is almost impossible to rely on it, says Al-Shammari, because part of its production has been suspended for years amid a state of instability.
Iran remains the country most qualified to make up for the shortfall, but it is subject to US sanctions.
If these sanctions are lifted, it could contribute up to 1.2 million barrels per day. According to Kepler data, it possesses an estimated 100 million barrels of oil stored in tankers, meaning that it can add 1 million barrels per day, or 1% of the global supply. for about 3 months.
Of course, lifting sanctions is linked to reaching a new nuclear agreement in Vienna, and it is unlikely, as Amina Bakr says, that the United States will sign a new bad agreement with Iran to allow more oil to be put on the market.
The other possibility comes from countries with excess production capacity from outside the region, such as Nigeria and Venezuela, but these countries also have their problems.
The only option left is American oil, but this will not be sufficient or adequate for Europe's needs. The American crude is very light and, according to Robin Mills, head of Qamar Energy in Dubai, it is not suitable for the European market or for the production of diesel that it mainly needs.
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