All eyes are on Kurdistan... the concerns of the Iraqi political process after the withdrawal of the

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[size=52]All eyes are on Kurdistan... the concerns of the Iraqi political process after the withdrawal of the "mercurial man"[/size]

[size=45]On Tuesday, the US website War on Rocks shed light on the potential transformations raised by the leader of the Sadrist movement, Muqtada al-Sadr, with his sudden withdrawal from the Iraqi parliament, which he described as a "fragile country."[/size]
[size=45]According to a report published by the site, many questions are being raised today, in addition to many fears and concerns about the country and its political and economic future, while attention is currently turning to the Kurdistan Region.[/size]
[size=45]"mercurial man"[/size]
[size=45]At the beginning, the American report described al-Sadr as a "controversial mercurial man", and that his decision about the resignation of his representatives from Parliament shocked observers, considering that it was the "largest tectonic shift" in the country's politics since the defeat of ISIS.[/size]
[size=45]The report pointed out that observers are wondering whether this step by al-Sadr is merely a threat and can be reversed or not, but he pointed out that few things in Iraqi politics are considered final, wondering whether al-Sadr actually intends to "take to the street" and monitor the collapse of the regime. politics in Iraq.[/size]
[size=45]In view of what is happening, the report made it clear that analysts have been trying in vain to determine al-Sadr’s motives for nearly two decades, and they are seeking to understand the difficult decision he made, pointing to the existence of two theories, and they are either that al-Sadr is doing a very intelligent task with the aim of strengthening his legitimacy because there is no other way to restore order. The current situation, or that al-Sadr made a grave political mistake by abandoning the initiative in favor of his rivals.[/size]
[size=45]“Tearing up” the Triple Alliance[/size]
[size=45]After noting that the immediate effect of al-Sadr's move was to tear the "triple alliance" between the Sunni bloc and the Kurdistan Democratic Party led by Massoud Barzani and the Sadrist bloc led by al-Sadr, he made it clear that if the new alternative representatives swear the oath without incident, parliament must move quickly to The formation of a long-awaited government, and the election of an alternative deputy to Parliament Speaker Muhammad al-Halbousi, who was assumed by Sadrist's deputy, may turn into a deputy from the Al-Fateh Alliance.[/size]
[size=45]The report added that the next task will be to elect a president of the republic, which he described as a “bottleneck” in forming the government, first because unlike all other positions that require mere majority votes, the election of the president requires a two-thirds majority and a two-thirds quorum.[/size]
[size=45]Secondly, the report indicated that there was a dispute between the two main Kurdish parties, the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, over the presidency, as the position is currently held by Barham Salih with the support of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan.[/size]
[size=45]He added that the coordinating framework forces are deeply indebted to the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan because it stood by its side in efforts to obstruct the formation of the government led by the Sadrists.[/size]
[size=45]He continued, "The Kurdistan Democratic Party, especially with the exit of the Sadrists, is the largest and most unified party in Iraq, and that forming a government without the approval of their leader Massoud Barzani, the former president of the region, will be very difficult."[/size]
[size=45]Therefore, the report made it clear that all eyes will be directed to the Kurdish north, where the interlocutors are trying to mediate a deal between the two parties to reach a consensus on whether Barham Salih will remain in the presidency, or that the Kurdistan Democratic Party’s candidate, Reber Ahmed, will take the position, indicating that there is a possibility Although difficult, the emergence of a third settlement candidate.[/size]
[size=45]cake sharing[/size]
[size=45]After the report drew attention to the expected division of ministries between Shiite, Sunni, Kurdish, Turkmen and Christian components, the first question posed was who would be the new prime minister.[/size]
[size=45]He pointed out that most sources agree that the coordination framework has agreed on three basic qualifications for the prime minister: to be a politician and not a technocrat, to be a strong enough personality for effective leadership, and to be accepted by the international community (i.e. from Washington, London, Brussels, as well as Tehran Ankara and the Gulf Cooperation Council).[/size]
[size=45]He added that this “test” therefore excludes figures such as Nuri al-Maliki, Hadi al-Amiri, Faleh al-Fayyad and Adnan al-Zarfi, in addition to the current Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kazemi.[/size]
[size=45]While the report indicated that previous governments had made many promises about reform attempts, but they were rarely implemented, it reminded that large sums of money will flow in billions of unexpected oil revenues, and that this would raise doubts based on past experiences that The winning powers will not be able to prevent themselves from plundering the treasury for their own interests.[/size]
[size=45]After expressing the belief that a new government is likely to see the light in a relatively short time, perhaps about two months, the report called on the West to watch carefully with one question in mind: Will this government refuse to undertake the necessary reforms and isolate itself from the international system, or will the Iraqi elites realize Finally, change is required and you are therefore implementing the necessary reforms in order to integrate into the global system?[/size]
[size=45]Al-Sadr and the equation of demonstrations and Saraya Al-Salam[/size]
[size=45]He concluded by saying that this is a "big and complex question," but he added that some simple indicators for this may be whether Iraq will try to address the state's inability to provide electricity and clean water to its citizens? Will the presence of US and NATO training missions be regulated by giving them legitimacy? Will Iraq make serious attempts to court international businessmen other than the oil and electricity sectors?[/size]
[size=45]The report also raised final questions about al-Sadr and the Sadrists, explaining that despite their departure, al-Sadr has at least two basic weapons: first, the ability to mobilize demonstrators as a non-violent resistance, and secondly, his militia represented by the “Peace Brigades”, where any or both of them can provoke a situation Disturbance, if the poor segments from which Sadr draws his supporters, feel that they have nothing to lose.[/size]
[size=45]The American report concluded by saying that “Iraq is still fragile,” referring to the phenomenon of climate change that struck the country, the record rise in temperatures, sandstorms, and the decline in the flow of the Tigris River to its lowest levels, while voter turnout was low in the recent elections, and the new million Iraqis who need to Jobs every year, while the Sadrist movement, which is now outside the government, waits openly, and may try to accelerate the complete collapse of the system.[/size]
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