Iraq's Brink of the Abyss... A Reminder of Nechirvan Barzani's Initiative
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Shafaq News/ The Institute of "Gulf States in Washington" concluded that the conflict between the Shiites is among the most acute crises in Iraq since 2014, and threatens to perpetuate the political crisis in the country, noting that the President of Kurdistan Region, Nechirvan Barzani offered that Erbil play a mediating role to end The crisis in Baghdad.
The American report, translated by Shafaq News Agency, reviewed the manifestations of the conflict in Baghdad between Muqtada al-Sadr's group and the forces of the Coordination Framework, leading to the nomination of Muhammad al-Sudani to head the government, and al-Sadr's move to thwart this step by directing his supporters to storm the Iraqi parliament, which has turned into "the focus of the conflict." power among the Shiites, perpetuating the political crisis in the country.
The Shiite conflict and the return of ISIS
The report described the ongoing conflict among the Shiites as "among the most severe political crises in Iraq since 2014," noting that "there are risks that could plunge the country into a civil conflict within the sects, with serious repercussions on stability and security in the broader region."
He explained, "It is possible that the violent conflict in Iraq will provide breathing space for ISIS and other jihadist factions in order to regroup, destabilize the country and provoke a new wave of refugees, and that because of this, Iran, the UAE, the United States and Britain have called for dialogue and conflict resolution." Iraq peacefully.
In addition, the report stated that President Nechirvan Barzani, despite his controversial relationship with Baghdad, offered to host Erbil as a mediator in the negotiations between the competing Shiite forces.
The report pointed out that "the Kurds are concerned about the transformation of the political conflict in Baghdad into violence," adding that "there are about two million internally displaced persons and refugees from Iraq and Syria, who have caused enormous financial and social pressures on the Kurdistan Region, and that the occurrence of additional acts of violence, could lead to push More displaced people to the region.
As for the Kurdistan Region, the report says that al-Sadr's demand to change the constitution and overthrow the political system that has been in place since 2003 is a threat to the region's future as a federal entity.
The report warned that the continuation of the political stalemate had "put Iraq on the brink of violent conflict," adding that "the flexibility of al-Sadr's demands, along with his demand to exclude any leadership role for Nuri al-Maliki, made finding a political solution difficult."
Dissolution of Parliament and early elections
After the report indicated that al-Sadr calls for the dissolution of parliament and early elections, and at the same time continues to invite people to join his "revolution", he said that some analysts "consider that this reflects a policy disguised as brinkmanship, and that they believe that al-Sadr will eventually accept By striking a deal, the risks of his political approach are high in the volatile political landscape that shapes Iraq.
The report also warned by saying that "if new and innovative methods are not found to reduce tensions and manage conflict, the situation will continue to be ripe for violence and instability."
The report suggested that one of the ways would be "for al-Sadr to abandon his extremist position and participate in a comprehensive development model to address grievances and work towards an acceptable political settlement with the coordinating framework."
On the other hand, the report suggests on the coordination framework, working to restore parliamentary seats to Sadr's supporters who have resigned from the House of Representatives, adding that despite legal doubts about such a step, it may provide an opportunity to invite Sadr to return to the political process.
As for the third option, as the US report indicates, it is to allow the interim government to operate in the shadow of a currently closed parliament, as it is likely that al-Sadr will continue to obstruct activity without a political agreement.
The last option, according to the report, is for the interim government to amend the electoral law in preparation for organizing early elections (as Al-Sadr demanded) as a way to overcome the current political impasse.
However, the report considered that there are no guarantees that the new elections will produce a different political map that will allow overcoming the difficulties of forming a government amid the decline in turnout and political fragmentation.
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