“Like mercury” .. Warnings of the return of ISIS in Iraq

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[size=52]“Like mercury” .. Warnings of the return of ISIS in Iraq[/size]

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Iraqi forces and Kurdish Peshmerga forces repeatedly announce the implementation of operations to pursue sleeper cells affiliated with the organization
[size=45]Although Iraq announced the defeat of ISIS in late 2017 after it was expelled from all the major cities it controlled in 2014, warnings are issued from time to time of the possibility of the extremist organization returning to the fore again in light of the exacerbation of the political conflict in the country, according to analysts. .[/size]
[size=45]In an opinion article published by the [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] , the writer spoke that ISIS is preparing for a return in Iraq, especially in areas near the borders of the Kurdistan Region in and around Erbil and in Sulaymaniyah as well.[/size]
[size=45]The writer Bernard Levy said that the organization has also begun to regain its positions in the caves and tunnels of the Qaraqosh Mountains near Mosul, and it is testing the capabilities of the Peshmerga forces daily by launching attacks in the vicinity of the town of Al-Kwer, southwest of Erbil.[/size]
[size=45]Levy noted that the Kurds' European and American partners do not appreciate the threat posed by ISIS and view it as a tumor that has been eradicated.[/size]
[size=45]But the truth, according to the author, is that ISIS is like “mercury” as a poisonous liquid that evaporates, but it remains suspended, waiting for its opponents to lower their guard so that it can pounce again.[/size]
[size=45]Hassan Abu Haniyeh, an expert on extremist groups, agrees with this proposition and believes that after losing the last enclave in Syria in Baghouz in 2019, ISIS has shifted from “wars of spatial control to guerrilla wars and attrition, and adopted a new principle based on the temporary overthrow of cities.”[/size]
[size=45]Abu Haniyeh added to Al-Hurra website that "ISIS imposes a kind of invisible control similar to the mafia in the areas near the Kurdistan region of Iraq."[/size]
[size=45]Abu Haniyeh states that “there is a state of political instability, chaos and conflict in Iraq, which the organization will certainly invest in, but it will not be able to fully impose its control, but may deliberately take temporary control and withdraw later.”[/size]
[size=45]The expert on extremist groups asserts that "so far, the organization has not started with this step, but it may take advantage of the current conflict to launch such operations, aimed at testing the reaction of the Iraqi security forces in order to prepare for larger attacks in the future when the opportunity arises."[/size]
[size=45]A report issued by the UN Security Council in January 2022 indicated that the organization “maintained its ability to launch attacks at a constant rate in Iraq, including carrying out hit-and-run operations, ambushes and planting roadside bombs, with its activity concentrated significantly in the governorates of Kirkuk, Diyala and Salah.” religion” adjacent to the Kurdistan region.[/size]
[size=45]The report added that the organization takes advantage of “the ease of penetrating the borders” between Iraq and Syria, and includes “between 6,000 to 10,000 fighters in both countries, where it forms cells and trains elements to launch attacks.”[/size]
[size=45]Indeed, the Iraqi forces repeatedly announce that they have carried out operations here and there to pursue ISIS sleeper cells in mountainous areas and in the desert.[/size]

"the bogeyman"

[size=45]Edmund Gharib, a professor of international relations at Georgetown University in the United States, believes that although the organization still poses a threat, some parties may exploit it for political gain.[/size]
[size=45]Gharib said in an interview with Al-Hurra website that "we always hear about the return of ISIS and the threats it poses, when there is unrest," adding that "without a doubt, the organization still has cells in the region, and perhaps there are regional parties that support it and have money to carry out its operations."[/size]
[size=45]However, Gharib added, "We heard a lot from the United States and regional and internal powers that ISIS has been eliminated and that it no longer poses a threat."[/size]
[size=45]Thus, Gharib refers to the possibility of the presence of "Iraqi forces that fear the withdrawal of the United States due to its preoccupation with the events in Ukraine, and therefore want them to become more involved."[/size]
[size=45]Gharib explains that "ISIS is sometimes used by some parties as a bogeyman to intimidate and achieve certain political goals."[/size]

Is Washington interfering?

[size=45]With regard to the extent of the states’ willingness to engage, Gharib indicates that Washington has the capacity, assets, and relations in the region that make it able to intervene, but it is currently preoccupied with the Ukraine issue, the conflict with China over Taiwan, and internal issues related to sharp political polarization.[/size]
[size=45]"This raises questions about the extent to which the United States will be prepared and willing to engage in any new confrontation, despite the lack of clarity on the threat that could be posed by ISIS."[/size]
[size=45]In turn, Abu Haniyeh believes that "with the shift in the United States' interest in competing with China and Russia, and the decline in interest in the issue of terrorism and problems in Iraq, there is no assurance from Washington that it will intervene again on a large scale in the region."[/size]
[size=45]"Washington also signed an agreement with Iraq that stipulates the presence of limited American forces whose mission is limited to training and logistical support, and they do not have clear combat missions," according to Haniyeh.[/size]
[size=45]Abu Haniyeh points out that "when measuring the ability of the Peshmerga forces and the Iraqi forces with what happened in 2014, how they collapsed and the organization was able to invade entire cities, and its genes stopped it only the American strikes."[/size]
[size=45]Abu Haniyeh concludes by saying, “Historical facts have proven that without American intervention, local forces will not be able to confront any rebellion similar to what happened in 2013 and 2014 when ISIS overran large areas in Iraq and Syria.”[/size]
[size=45]At the beginning of June 2014, ISIS took control of Mosul and expanded to control nearly a third of the area of ​​Iraq. Several weeks later, the United States intervened directly for the first time since the withdrawal of its forces in 2011, by bombing the extremist organization's sites.[/size]
[size=45]With the help of an international coalition led by Washington, Iraqi forces launched a counterattack. He declared victory over the extremist Islamic organization at the end of 2017.[/size]
[size=45]And in July 2021, US President Joe Biden announced that the United States would end its “combat mission” and begin a “new phase” of military cooperation with Iraq, which requires converting the mission of American forces to completely “advisory” and “training” by the end of the year.[/size]
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