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The International Energy Agency has lowered oil demand estimates as lockdowns deepen China's slide, and forecast growth on oil demand for 2022 will fall by 110,000 barrels per day .
The International Energy Agency said in a report today, Wednesday, that the markets for jet fuel and diesel are still exceptionally tight, as they are going through a violent crisis in light of record price hikes and a flare-up of global inflation .
The International Energy Agency has cut estimates of global oil demand growth this year, as the renewed Covid lockdown in China slowed activity in the world's second-largest consumer .
The pessimistic outlook for International Energy contrasts with the expectations of OPEC on Tuesday, and at the same time the expectations of global banks on oil prices differ, as JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) expects a rise to levels of 150 dollars, while UBS and Morgan Stanley cut prices by 15 dollars .
The Paris-based agency said in its latest monthly report that global oil consumption will increase by 2 million barrels per day this year - about 110,000 barrels per day lower than previous forecasts - to an average of 99.7 million barrels per day .
The International Energy Agency said in its monthly report on Wednesday that demand will expand again by roughly the same amount in 2023 .
Currently, the deteriorating economic environment and frequent shutdowns related to the "Covid-19" virus in China continue to affect market sentiment, the agency said in the report .
The agency expects Russian oil production to decline by 1.9 million barrels per day by February when the European Union's ban on Moscow's exports of crude and refined petroleum products comes into full force .
The International Energy Agency said that Russia produced approximately 11 million barrels per day of crude and oil products during August, slightly down from its production before the invasion of Ukraine in February .
The agency expected Russia's production to decline to 10.2 million barrels per day in December, and to 9.5 million barrels per day by February 2023 .
OPEC توقعات forecast
On the other hand, on Tuesday, OPEC stuck to its expectations of strong growth in global demand for oil in 2022 and 2023, citing indications that major economies were performing better than expected despite headwinds such as high inflation .
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said in a monthly report that oil demand will increase by 3.1 million barrels per day in 2022 and 2.7 million barrels per day in 2023, unchanged from last month .
Oil use has rebounded from epidemic lows, although higher prices and the Chinese coronavirus outbreak have slashed expectations for 2022, and OPEC said last month that the cuts, in OPEC's view, delayed the recovery of oil use above 2019 levels until 2023 .
"Oil demand in 2023 is expected to be supported by strong economic performance in major consuming countries, as well as potential improvements in COVID-19 restrictions and reduced geopolitical uncertainty," OPEC said in a report on Tuesday .
It expects global oil consumption in 2023 to average 102.73 million barrels per day, higher than the pre-pandemic rate during 2019. Earlier this year, OPEC forecast a move above pre-pandemic demand levels in 2022 .
OPEC left its forecasts for global economic growth in 2022 and 2023 steady at 3.1% and the report noted signs of stalling activity, such as retail spending in the United States and the eurozone, and stressed the potential for upside risks .
"While the United States and China in particular were facing challenges in the first half of 2022, it is very likely that their economies will recover in the second half," the report stated.
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