29-08-2014 02:00 PM
Read the situation, which is passing through the Middle East, including witnessing the events of a hot political born case of fighting, can not turn generate a thorough understanding helps to stand on the causes of the dilemma and devise solutions to end without the knowledge of the economic aspect that has contributed to the worsening situation one way or another, according to a study researcher Michael Singh, issued by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
Surprised President Barack Obama's many, recently, when someone crisis in Iraq as part of the economic plight, pointing out that the Iraqi Sunnis were "separate from the global economy," but this failed to achieve their ambitions. Although the state of turmoil and chaos in Iraq come from several sources, but it seems that the American president did not err in accordance with the bases relied upon in the reading of the situation; Iraqi Sunnis and not only are isolated from the global economy, but the entire Middle East.
In this context, refers Michael Singh in this study, to be unique to the region and imports increased by just over 4 percent of global imports, a figure lower than those recorded in 1983; note that Germany alone recorded 6.4 per cent. It highlights the region's economic recession clearly when compared to Asian economies. According to reports, "the World Bank", per capita Egyptian "GDP" of $ 406 in 1965, while per capita was $ 110 in China only.
Today (using constant dollars), per capita rose from the Egyptian "GDP" four times up to 1566 dollars, while the per capita in China thirty-fold to $ 3583 dollars. The same applies for both Iran and South Korea, where the per capita "GDP" is almost the same in both countries in 1965, but today rising per capita in South Korea to 24 thousand dollars, while becoming the one in Iran $ 3000 only.
Do not suffer the Middle East countries of separation from the world economy, but they are isolated from each other as well. Most of the exports in North America, Europe and Asia remain in those areas, and two-thirds of exports to Europe also come from Europe. But in the Middle East, comes only 16% of the exports of countries in the region as a whole, from other countries in the Middle East.
While Western observers focus on the political issues in the Near East, the people of the region themselves preoccupied with economic affairs. According to an opinion poll informal, conducted recently, the majority of residents want the Gaza Strip, the situation of calm with Israel to look for an opportunity to work there.
Help countries in the region to overcome the economic woes strengthen America's role outside the international security framework a way that promotes peace and stability
In the last poll, puts the Iranians "promote employment" at the top of their priority political, much higher percentage of "the continuation of our nuclear enrichment program."
But while hoping the people of Gaza to end the siege imposed on them and the Iranians are looking forward to the lifting of sanctions, will not provide any of these two steps magic solution to the problem. Valdik economic endemic in the region, even in areas that do not suffer from the embargo or sanctions.
In this context, Michael Singh pointed out that it is imperative for Western policy makers to pay attention to this matter. The separation between the economic and political problems is incorrect. Just as in any other place, the economy is linked to politics closely, and economic progress is the main factor for reducing chronic instability, which threatens American interests in the region.
In terms of oil-importing countries, bloated public sectors located in the heart of the social and economic problems. In countries such as Egypt, where the public sector employs about 30 percent of the staff, successive governments have sought after the revolution - in a bid to make a quick economic reforms - to increase the labor force and salaries in the public sector.
Barack Obama: 'the crisis in Iraq is part of the economic plight'
The generous government subsidies, especially in regard to fuel, to encourage excessive consumption and give preference to inefficient industrial sectors that consume a large amount of energy. In addition to the huge wages of the public sector, strain the financial burden of these subsidies the government and cause a deficit in the general budget (the budget), which in turn increases the cost of borrowing.
These policies, which does not look correct, as well as the obstacles to doing business, to prevent the activities of the private sector that will promote growth and employment. Unemployment in the region - particularly among young people - are considered in many cases higher than it was at the start of the Arab uprisings spark-called "Arab Spring", at which time the slow pace of economic growth to some extent prevents him from reversing this trend.
In another context, draws Michael Singh, in his study of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy to the economic problems the aforementioned are not limited to oil-importing countries, he warned, "the International Monetary Fund," the years that saw the Petroleum Exporting Countries huge surpluses, oversees the end result for the growing population and inflation spending. This would put them in a more fragile and susceptible to a decline in oil prices, a prospect that seems increasingly likely with the entry of new sources of energy to the international arena.
However, it is possible to address these economic problems. With the exception of policy dilemmas facing the region - and often seemingly intractable - can not the West lend a helping hand only, and to assist them this will not be without charge or keeping the interests of the course, according to the opinion of a number of observers, but the regional leaders themselves are willing to receive assistance. Jordan is a good example: In the midst of the chaos of the Arab uprisings, Oman and quietly implemented strict reforms with the help of the United States, "the International Monetary Fund."
Based on the foregoing, Michael Singh concludes that the oil-importing countries, it has to be replaced by costly oil subsidies targeted aid to the poor, and the establishment of networks of social insurance. They also need to reduce its dependence on foreign aid and reduce corruption and make regulatory changes to encourage private sector growth. For its part, need Exporting Countries to cut its expenditure and diversify their economies. As the two groups must reduce the size of the public sector have updated and educational systems.
24 thousand dollars per capita GDP in South Korea
Counseling alone is not enough
On the other hand, the study warned that the United States and its allies, should not sufficiency by giving them advice on how to overcome these challenges, but they also stimulate the regional governments to accept.
This means working with regional allies who seek to diversify their economies and updated, and the coordination of economic aid and linked to progress in the area of reform, including taking the steps necessary for the success of political reforms.
Where Icolmichael Singh: "The United States should encourage the economic integration of the larger, through cooperation with the rich oil producers to invest in the prosperity of its neighbors poorer, as well as by supplying countries in the Middle East, the possibility of better access to Western markets, especially the European Union."
It also refers Singh to advice that urges the United States to "do more" abroad often criticize as invitations disguised to use military force, but that the integration of the art of economic governance in diplomacy, according to him, would help to strengthen the role of America's international outside the box security a way that promotes peace and stability in the long term, and probably is the policy that will lift America itself from the clutches of a policy of "conspiracy and subversion" and "policy to maintain the interests of the dry savage", which he accuses of observers implemented in the Middle East and other regions of the world vulnerable.
In conclusion, study concludes Michael Singh, issued by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, that it is naive to believe that economic growth will solve all dilemmas sticking in the Middle East; but too naive to believe that it is possible to solve these crises in the absence of economic prosperity.