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Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality

Welcome to the Neno's Place!

Neno's Place Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality


Neno

I can be reached by phone or text 8am-7pm cst 972-768-9772 or, once joining the board I can be reached by a (PM) Private Message.

Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality

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    Russia, Korea and Iran, passing through Iraq..Have the sanctions brought down countries and changed

    rocky
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    Russia, Korea and Iran, passing through Iraq..Have the sanctions brought down countries and changed Empty Russia, Korea and Iran, passing through Iraq..Have the sanctions brought down countries and changed

    Post by rocky Thu 01 Dec 2022, 6:24 am

    [size=38]Russia, Korea and Iran, passing through Iraq..Have the sanctions brought down countries and changed tracks?[/size]


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    December 1, 2022[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
    Baghdad/Obelisk: Russia faces unprecedented sanctions following its invasion of Ukraine. Will sanctions succeed in changing the course of the war? History, although it witnessed many sanctions over the centuries, did not have a single result, and an example of that is Iraq, Cuba, Iran, North Korea, and other countries.
    In the Middle Ages, ecstasy filled the chests of kingdoms after it threw outside its doors those who traded in wool from other kingdoms with which disputes arose. And burdened with taxes the priests of peoples who were not friendly to them, and even prevented the entry of their goods into their lands.
    The Confederate states during the American Civil War, and Germany during the First World War, found their outlets besieged and prevented them, and even food supplies from them, aborting their war operations.
    The strategy seems self-evident, as countries that impose sanctions use economic undermining as a means of deterring an enemy state from actions deemed hostile. Therefore, a few days after the entry of Russian tanks into Ukrainian territory, the governments of Western countries hastened to impose numerous sanctions on Russia whose scope has not been witnessed in history. A ban on Russian flights in US and European airspace, a ban on exports of luxury goods to Russia, and large-scale measures aimed at paralyzing the Russian financial system.
    Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, describes the European response: “The EU and partner countries seek to cripple Putin’s ability to finance his war machine.”
    Away from the direct effects of the sanctions, the question remains; Do sanctions really succeed in overthrowing regimes? In this context, Dr. Erica Moret, a specialist in sanctions at the Graduate Institute in Geneva, says: “I have always doubted the answer to this question… It is easy to ask the question, but the difficulty lies in the answer.”
    Moye acknowledges that sanctions can sometimes be a useful tool, especially after all diplomatic means have been exhausted and a military response is no longer an option. However, she points out that there are a large number of studies examining the efficacy of sanctions, but none of them succeeded in producing definitive conclusions proving that sanctions alone were the cause of fundamental changes. "We haven't yet found a way to prove that political changes were caused by the sanctions," Moret adds.
    When talking about the positive changes brought about by economic sanctions, South Africa is often mentioned. When Nelson Mandela was asked after the release of his captivity whether sanctions had any merit in ending apartheid, Nelson replied: "Absolutely, without a doubt." Twenty-three countries imposed sanctions on South Africa, including bans on the sale of arms and oil, from 1964 until the fall of the regime in 1990.
    Moret explains that "a range of internal political developments" were taking place in South Africa at the same time that the sanctions were imposed. Sanctions are part of the equation, she adds, and “it is a mechanism like other mechanisms such as diplomacy, mediation, and [even] the threat of a military response, neither better nor worse.”
    Iran, Cuba and North Korea
    The Iran nuclear deal is another example used to demonstrate the positive effects of sanctions. The five permanent members of the United Nations Security Councilexternal link and the European Union countriesexternal link in 2015 signed the agreement known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which guarantees that Iran will not develop nuclear weapons. It is commonly believed that the prospect of sanctions relief encouraged Tehran to accept the deal.
    Moret reiterates that this is likely part of the equation, but not necessarily the whole picture, "it was also accompanied by a change in government, and a change in public opinion."
    In contrast, Cuba and North Korea have suffered from sanctions imposed by the United States for more than half a century. However, these countries have not made fundamental changes in their course. There is a belief in the political science community that the imposition of sanctions might lead a small, undemocratic country to become too isolated and intransigent.
    In addition to questioning the feasibility of sanctions, more questions arise about their impact on a country and which groups suffer the most.
    In the 1990s, the international sanctions imposed on Iraq following its invasion of Kuwait were sweeping. These included medicines and equipment needed to treat cancer, spare parts for water distribution stations, chlorine for water purification, and even vaccines against childhood diseases. Governments that stood in the way of these materials reaching Iraq argued that they could be used to develop weapons of mass destruction.
    Moreh comments on these penalties, saying: "They have sparked a huge, unprecedented controversy." The objections of the relief agencies were loud, which led to the resignation of a number of senior positions in the United Nations, such as Dennis Halliday, the United Nations Humanitarian Coordinator in Iraq, and Jutta Burghardt, the representative of the World Food Program in Iraq.
    Halliday said at the time, "The situation claimed the lives of five thousand children a month."
    Later in an extensive study of the sanctions, Burghardt argued that the sanctions could be classified as genocide according to international law, stating in the study external link, "There is no doubt that the sanctions imposed by the Security Council on Iraq lead to the partial or total destruction of the state."
    Smart Sanctions
    The waves of outrage caused by the sanctions against Iraq led to a change that went beyond the sanctioned countries, and extended to the countries imposing the sanctions. As a result, what is known as Operation External Link Interlaken, led by Switzerland, Germany and Sweden, emerged, which designed “smart sanctions” targeting governments, tyrants and terrorist groups, not civilians.
    The International Committee of the Red Cross believes that it is necessary to think about the humanitarian consequences that sanctions may have. While the Geneva Conventions do not say anything about the impact of sanctions on civilians, the ICRC, like other humanitarian agencies, is concerned when it sees the negative impact of conflict on civilians.
    “Even at this time, if we are not careful and precise in formulating sanctions, they may have this negative impact,” warns Svoboda, deputy head of the law and policy department at the International Committee of the Red Cross.
    Restricting humanitarian relief
    The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) finds that it is of particular concern that sanctions may restrict humanitarian action in the field. “Sanctions should not undermine, criminalize or prevent the work of humanitarian agencies,” says Svoboda.
    This danger is evident in the situation left by the sanctions imposed years ago on Syria and Yemen. Svoboda and Moreh warn of the “chilling effect” the sanctions regime could have on companies that supply aid agencies.
    “Some private companies may feel prevented from doing business … and are reluctant to ship spare parts to a sanctioned place.”
    “This means that we may not be able to maintain the water supply because we cannot get spare parts.”
    Sanctions pose challenges in other areas. Such as the first aid training that the ICRC often provides to local communities in conflict areas, or the medical treatment it provides to injured groups, including groups that have previously fought.
    While these are the normal activities of the ICRC and part of its mandate under the Geneva Conventions. However, sanctions designed to prevent support for terrorist groups or states may make them illegal activities.
    New Forum for Targeted Sanctions
    In addition, there are concerns that the consensus achieved by the Interlaken process on targeted sanctions is sluggish. These concerns are based on the impact of the comprehensive measures that followed the withdrawal of the United States and NATO from Afghanistan and the impact on personnel and aid agencies, which have reached so difficult that many aid organizations can hardly operate.
    In this regard, Moret says: “Sanctions that completely isolate a national banking system, as is happening in North Korea or that currently threaten Afghanistan, is not a good strategy… The suffering of civilian groups cannot lead to political gains. I do not know of a single case in which the destruction of a country's economy led to positive development.”
    Moreh believes that the time has come to revive a forum similar to the Interlaken process, and Moreh hopes that the new forum will be led by Switzerland, given its expertise and experience in targeted sanctions.
    Sanctions on Russia
    Everyone agrees that the sanctions against Russia were swift and wide-ranging - and global companies withdrew from the Russian market as quickly as dominoes, even those that could theoretically continue to operate in Russia like McDonald's and H&M. Other companies such as Nestlé, under pressure from Ukraine, were forced to put humanitarian priorities before profit priorities, and suspended the sale of products such as KitKat in Russia while continuing to sell baby food.
    With the Russian market devoid of daily commodities such as iPhones and McDonald's meals, Russian residents may wonder about the reasons, but this is unlikely to affect the basic necessities of living, nor will it affect Putin's "war machine" that requires cash flows and spare parts. Although importing spare parts from the United States or the European Union has become impossible, India and China still have options for Moscow. As for the money, it is still flowing to Russia because of Europe's dependence on Russian gas and oil, with deals worth millions of euros per day.
    Moreh and Svoboda point out that sanctions are just "one tool in the toolkit." However, it seems to be the only tool in the case of Russia, where diplomatic relations are almost non-existent and military intervention is an unlikely option. Groups calling for Europe to immediately stop buying gas and oil from Russia argue that this measure will enhance the impact of the sanctions.
    the expected results
    In a newly aired episode of the "Inside Geneva" podcast, external link, Moret stressed that "sanctions are not a magic formula for an immediate solution."
    And she added, "We are talking about unparalleled sanctions, the results of which are difficult to predict, but what is certain is that the sanctions will make the cost of the war on Russia much greater."
    Moret adds that we do not expect the sanctions to lead to drastic changes such as the overthrow of the regime, but we expect smaller and “more accurate” developments that lead to “the parties returning to the negotiating table or easing the intensity of the war in Ukraine due to the heavy financial burdens on the priest of Russia.
     
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