[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
Shafaq News/ Energy analysts suggested that oil producers from OPEC and outside of the OPEC + group may decide to cut oil production next Sunday, as the alliance tries to limit the potential effects of the European Union's decision to impose sanctions on Russian crude exports and the possibility of imposing a certain ceiling on oil prices. Russian.
OPEC +, a group of 23 oil producing countries led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, meets next Sunday to decide on the next phase of production policy.
The upcoming meeting comes before the imposition of "devastating" sanctions on Russian crude, and the possibility of a decline in Chinese demand for crude, which raises fears of a recession that may eventually lead to a decline in prices.
An analyst at the energy consulting firm "Rystad" Claudio Gallimberti told CNBC from OPEC's headquarters in Vienna that it would be best for the group to change its current production policy.
The network says that reports that OPEC + is considering cutting production based on the decline in demand, especially in China, over the past few days.
Actors in the global energy market are still concerned about the European Union's sanctions on Russia's seaborne crude exports, which will come into force on the fifth of this month.
In addition, the possibility of capping Russian oil prices by the Group of Seven increases uncertainty in the oil market.
The 27-nation European Union agreed last June to ban the purchase of Russian seaborne crude from December 5 as part of a concerted effort to reduce Moscow's imports in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine.
However, concern that a total ban on Russian crude imports could lead to higher oil prices prompted the Group of Seven major industrialized countries to consider capping the price of Russian crude.
No formal agreement has yet been reached, although Reuters reported on Thursday that EU governments had agreed in principle to a cap on the price of Russian seaborne oil of $60 a barrel.
"The other factor that OPEC has to take into account is the price ceiling, and this is what increases the uncertainty" in the oil market, Gallimberti asserts.
The OPEC + alliance recently hinted that it might impose deeper production cuts to stimulate prices, which had fallen over the past three weeks, but returned and rose slightly on Friday, two days before the expected meeting.
Reuters says that it is widely expected that the OPEC + group will adhere to its latest goals to reduce oil production by two million barrels per day when it meets on Sunday, but some analysts believe that crude prices could decline if the group does not make a decision to make further cuts.
OPEC +, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies led by Russia, turned the Sunday meeting, which was scheduled to be live in Vienna, into a virtual meeting via the Internet, which sources in the group say indicated the possibility of keeping the policy without changing.
The group agreed in early October to reduce the oil production target of two million barrels per day from November until the end of 2023.
Given the production restrictions imposed on some members of the group, the expected actual cut by OPEC+ is closer to 1 million to 1.1 million barrels per day.
Sources told Reuters that OPEC + now wants to assess the impact of the looming Russian oil price cap on the market and get a clearer picture of the outlook for oil demand in China, the world's largest crude importer, which is expected to ease strict restrictions to combat the Corona virus after protests. Unprecedented.
However, some analysts do not rule out a surprise, and warn that with the current oversupply in the market, OPEC + risks a decline in the oil price if production targets are not cut further at the meeting.
"Further production cuts cannot be ruled out... Not doing so risks triggering another selling bout," said Stephen Brennock, an analyst at PVM Oil, without specifying how low he believes prices could reach.
Brent crude, which hit a 14-year high above $139 a barrel after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, fell to around $88 a barrel in Thursday's trading, recovering somewhat from a one-year low near $80 a barrel hit earlier this week. .
Restrictions to combat Covid-19, which are harmful to the economy in China, and the delay in the European Union’s agreement on the level of the ceiling for Russian oil prices, put pressure on the market, and analysts at “ING” indicate that weakness in recent times is one of the reasons that “it is not possible to rule out” further action. from reduced supplies.
Amrita Sen, co-founder of Jefferies Bank consulting firm Energy Aspects, said she did not expect OPEC+ to change course now.
Energy Aspects expects “OPEC + to return some of the reduced quantities” to the market after the second quarter of next year in order to achieve a balance between supply and demand.
Analyst Giovanni Staunovo of UBS said that while the lack of clarity about Russian supplies may push OPEC + to change its current quotas, weak Chinese demand and the possibility of new releases from US strategic oil reserves may push the group to cut further.
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]