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After an imperfect end to 2022... aspirations for a recovery in oil demand in 2023
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Baghdad today - follow-up
The year 2022 is considered one of the most difficult years for the crude oil market, due to the Russian-Ukrainian war, which began on February 24 of last year, and its repercussions on the oil market will continue indefinitely.
The war caused a huge jump in oil prices in the aftermath of the war, reaching $140 a barrel, before it declined in the subsequent months under the pressure of fears of economic recession and the frequent rise of interest rates to contain inflation in the United States And several other major competitions, in addition to renewed infections with the Corona pandemic in China. Crude oil prices fell below $100 a barrel.
October 2022 also witnessed the largest move by the “OPEC +” coalition to reduce production after several years of gradually raising production to compensate for what happened in 2020 due to the outbreak of the Corona pandemic, and the alliance cut production by two million barrels per day after the expansion of global economic recession fears, and work extends to cuts. Until June 2023.
The "World Oil" international oil report stated that the crude oil industry during 2022 achieved positive results with regard to crude oil exports, which broke record levels, and the launch of oil projects worth billions of dollars.
The report pointed out that crude oil prices witnessed a special year of sharp fluctuations, as the US market was desperately looking for more supplies even as the main prices fluctuated due to fears of a global recession.
The report stated that the major international energy companies had extensive achievements due to the wide revenues they achieved, noting that ExxonMobil is moving forward with the $10 billion Guyana offshore oil project.
The report indicated that last year witnessed US President Joe Biden's call to unleash shale oil to confront the worsening energy crisis, after a period when the US administration was deliberately avoiding supporting US shale oil projects.
The report that Lukoil was the only Russian oil company that stated for a "quick solution to the military conflict" in Ukraine, explaining that on the other hand, Canadian oil exports to Asia reached a record level, as Canadian oil sands producers were able to export a record amount of oil. Crude oil to foreign markets thanks to a new link to the US Gulf Coast.
The international “Reg Zone” report stated that crude oil prices ended a volatile year with an increase, as investors look forward to a possible recovery in Chinese demand during 2023.
The report indicated that the price closing at the end of 2022 was far from the triple digits seen earlier. , after the Russo-Ukrainian war upended global supplies and pushed up prices.
At the end of 2022, crude oil prices recorded the second consecutive annual gain, as Brent crude gained 10 percent, compared to 50 percent in 2020, while American crude gained 7 percent after an increase of 55 percent in 2021.
Oil prices also made gains. . A weekly increase of 3 percent for Brent crude, 2.4 percent for US crude, due to the easing of lockdown measures in China, the continued production cuts in the “OPEC +” alliance, and the repercussions of the stoppage of US refineries.
The report stated that the global Brent crude index witnessed the largest weekly fluctuations ever, while the lack of liquidity continued, and sharp fluctuations grew, explaining that the gains had largely evaporated due to fears that the central bank's efforts to curb inflation would affect growth, in addition to the state of uncertainty. on the demand outlook in China.
The report pointed out that China is currently working to cope with the increasing cases of infection with the virus, and fears are growing about a new global outbreak, but there is optimism that demand will eventually recover in the largest importer of crude oil in the world .
The report noted the emergence of supply chain problems again, as the impact of the virus on China's economy has multiplying effects around the world, pointing out that, in return, China said "it will open its country to international travelers in the next month." "
The report that the ban imposed by Russia on selling oil to countries that imposed a maximum price per barrel of $60 appears to have had little impact on prices so far, as India, China and Turkey will continue to provide outlets for selling Russian crude Urals , because these countries do not participate in the price ceiling.
The report quoted the Energy Information Administration last week as confirming that commercial crude oil stocks rose slightly by 718,000 barrels to 419 million, which reduced the deficit to 6 percent below the normal level for this time in 2022, as the gains are back to an extent . Significant to the release of more oil from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
The report indicated that crude oil prices were unable to achieve strong gains despite the decline in the dollar, which has an inverse relationship with crude oil prices.
The report pointed to the significant impact of the winter storm "Elliott" on oil and fuel production on the US east coast, suggesting that thousands of flights that were canceled in conjunction with the outbreak of the storm would lead to an increase in distillate stocks.
On the other hand, the “Oil Price” international oil report highlighted Russian President Vladimir Putin's assertions that Russia has become one of the main suppliers of oil and gas to China, as 13.8 billion cubic meters of gas were shipped to China in the first 11 months. months of 2022. The
report indicated that Russia will gain larger shares in the Chinese market thanks to the availability of crude oil supplies from the Russian Urals Mountains at huge price reductions.
The report added that "China and India have become among the largest buyers of Russian oil and gas as a result of the fact that Russian crude oil from the Urals is traded at a huge discount of more than $30 per barrel, or about 40 percent." less than the international level.”
The report promised that Moscow could lose about four billion dollars a month in energy revenues - according to data from international bodies. The report indicated that commodity trading in the festive week between Christmas and New Year's was very light, but whether it was for oil or metals markets in general. We find that China continues to set the tone for the general sentiment of the oil market.
The report added that the high “presumed, but not reported” cases of Corona virus greatly affected prices, as well as the gradual recovery of the United States from the polar ice weather crisis last week, which marginally boosted prices, but the overall market situation led to a decline in West Crude. Texas median to below $80 a barrel again.
The report noted the impact of Russia's ban on oil exports to the coalition of countries that applied the price ceiling on Russian oil sales, referring to the decision of Russian President Vladimir Putin to ban the supply of oil and petroleum products to countries that adhere to the Oil price ceiling, with the application of the procedure at all stages of supply until the final buyer, provided that the decision will enter into force on the first of next February.
The report highlighted the efforts of US refineries to recover and return to operation quickly, as refineries in the US Gulf Coast seek to resume work in dozens of facilities that stopped their operations due to the recent ice crisis, with a total of 3.6 million barrels per day of operable capacity.
On the other hand, with regard to prices at the end of last week, oil prices recorded significant gains in their last trading session in 2022, and recorded the second consecutive annual gains.
Upon settlement, Brent crude rose by about 3 percent, recording $85.91 a barrel, recording an annual gain of 10 percent, after rising 50 percent during 2021.
US crude also rose 2.4 percent, to $80.26 a barrel, recording an annual gain of 7 percent. after an increase of about 55 percent in 2021.
Oil prices witnessed sharp fluctuations in 2022, as they rose, supported by the decline in supplies, coinciding with the Russian-Ukrainian war.
But prices have since given up most of the gains recorded at the start of the war amid weak demand from China - the largest consumer of crude in the world - and fears of an economic recession.
On the other hand, there was no change in the total number of active drilling rigs in the United States this week, as the total number of rigs remained at 779 this week, 193 rigs higher than the number of rigs this time in 2021 and 296 rigs less than the number of rigs at the beginning of the year. 2019 before the epidemic.
The weekly report of the American "Baker Hughes" company indicated that oil rigs in the United States decreased by one rig this week, to 621, as gas rigs increased by 1 to 156, while the various rigs remained unchanged at two.
The report pointed out that the number of rigs in the Permian Basin increased by one this week to 353, while the rigs in "Eagle Ford" remained unchanged.
The report noted the decline in crude oil production in the United States to the level of 12 million barrels per day in the week ending December 23, according to the latest weekly Energy Information Administration estimates, while production levels in the United States increased by 300 thousand. barrels per day in 2022 and only 200 thousand barrels compared to the previous year. .
The war caused a huge jump in oil prices in the aftermath of the war, reaching $140 a barrel, before it declined in the subsequent months under the pressure of fears of economic recession and the frequent rise of interest rates to contain inflation in the United States And several other major competitions, in addition to renewed infections with the Corona pandemic in China. Crude oil prices fell below $100 a barrel.
October 2022 also witnessed the largest move by the “OPEC +” coalition to reduce production after several years of gradually raising production to compensate for what happened in 2020 due to the outbreak of the Corona pandemic, and the alliance cut production by two million barrels per day after the expansion of global economic recession fears, and work extends to cuts. Until June 2023.
The "World Oil" international oil report stated that the crude oil industry during 2022 achieved positive results with regard to crude oil exports, which broke record levels, and the launch of oil projects worth billions of dollars.
The report pointed out that crude oil prices witnessed a special year of sharp fluctuations, as the US market was desperately looking for more supplies even as the main prices fluctuated due to fears of a global recession.
The report stated that the major international energy companies had extensive achievements due to the wide revenues they achieved, noting that ExxonMobil is moving forward with the $10 billion Guyana offshore oil project.
The report indicated that last year witnessed US President Joe Biden's call to unleash shale oil to confront the worsening energy crisis, after a period when the US administration was deliberately avoiding supporting US shale oil projects.
The report that Lukoil was the only Russian oil company that stated for a "quick solution to the military conflict" in Ukraine, explaining that on the other hand, Canadian oil exports to Asia reached a record level, as Canadian oil sands producers were able to export a record amount of oil. Crude oil to foreign markets thanks to a new link to the US Gulf Coast.
The international “Reg Zone” report stated that crude oil prices ended a volatile year with an increase, as investors look forward to a possible recovery in Chinese demand during 2023.
The report indicated that the price closing at the end of 2022 was far from the triple digits seen earlier. , after the Russo-Ukrainian war upended global supplies and pushed up prices.
At the end of 2022, crude oil prices recorded the second consecutive annual gain, as Brent crude gained 10 percent, compared to 50 percent in 2020, while American crude gained 7 percent after an increase of 55 percent in 2021.
Oil prices also made gains. . A weekly increase of 3 percent for Brent crude, 2.4 percent for US crude, due to the easing of lockdown measures in China, the continued production cuts in the “OPEC +” alliance, and the repercussions of the stoppage of US refineries.
The report stated that the global Brent crude index witnessed the largest weekly fluctuations ever, while the lack of liquidity continued, and sharp fluctuations grew, explaining that the gains had largely evaporated due to fears that the central bank's efforts to curb inflation would affect growth, in addition to the state of uncertainty. on the demand outlook in China.
The report pointed out that China is currently working to cope with the increasing cases of infection with the virus, and fears are growing about a new global outbreak, but there is optimism that demand will eventually recover in the largest importer of crude oil in the world .
The report noted the emergence of supply chain problems again, as the impact of the virus on China's economy has multiplying effects around the world, pointing out that, in return, China said "it will open its country to international travelers in the next month." "
The report that the ban imposed by Russia on selling oil to countries that imposed a maximum price per barrel of $60 appears to have had little impact on prices so far, as India, China and Turkey will continue to provide outlets for selling Russian crude Urals , because these countries do not participate in the price ceiling.
The report quoted the Energy Information Administration last week as confirming that commercial crude oil stocks rose slightly by 718,000 barrels to 419 million, which reduced the deficit to 6 percent below the normal level for this time in 2022, as the gains are back to an extent . Significant to the release of more oil from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
The report indicated that crude oil prices were unable to achieve strong gains despite the decline in the dollar, which has an inverse relationship with crude oil prices.
The report pointed to the significant impact of the winter storm "Elliott" on oil and fuel production on the US east coast, suggesting that thousands of flights that were canceled in conjunction with the outbreak of the storm would lead to an increase in distillate stocks.
On the other hand, the “Oil Price” international oil report highlighted Russian President Vladimir Putin's assertions that Russia has become one of the main suppliers of oil and gas to China, as 13.8 billion cubic meters of gas were shipped to China in the first 11 months. months of 2022. The
report indicated that Russia will gain larger shares in the Chinese market thanks to the availability of crude oil supplies from the Russian Urals Mountains at huge price reductions.
The report added that "China and India have become among the largest buyers of Russian oil and gas as a result of the fact that Russian crude oil from the Urals is traded at a huge discount of more than $30 per barrel, or about 40 percent." less than the international level.”
The report promised that Moscow could lose about four billion dollars a month in energy revenues - according to data from international bodies. The report indicated that commodity trading in the festive week between Christmas and New Year's was very light, but whether it was for oil or metals markets in general. We find that China continues to set the tone for the general sentiment of the oil market.
The report added that the high “presumed, but not reported” cases of Corona virus greatly affected prices, as well as the gradual recovery of the United States from the polar ice weather crisis last week, which marginally boosted prices, but the overall market situation led to a decline in West Crude. Texas median to below $80 a barrel again.
The report noted the impact of Russia's ban on oil exports to the coalition of countries that applied the price ceiling on Russian oil sales, referring to the decision of Russian President Vladimir Putin to ban the supply of oil and petroleum products to countries that adhere to the Oil price ceiling, with the application of the procedure at all stages of supply until the final buyer, provided that the decision will enter into force on the first of next February.
The report highlighted the efforts of US refineries to recover and return to operation quickly, as refineries in the US Gulf Coast seek to resume work in dozens of facilities that stopped their operations due to the recent ice crisis, with a total of 3.6 million barrels per day of operable capacity.
On the other hand, with regard to prices at the end of last week, oil prices recorded significant gains in their last trading session in 2022, and recorded the second consecutive annual gains.
Upon settlement, Brent crude rose by about 3 percent, recording $85.91 a barrel, recording an annual gain of 10 percent, after rising 50 percent during 2021.
US crude also rose 2.4 percent, to $80.26 a barrel, recording an annual gain of 7 percent. after an increase of about 55 percent in 2021.
Oil prices witnessed sharp fluctuations in 2022, as they rose, supported by the decline in supplies, coinciding with the Russian-Ukrainian war.
But prices have since given up most of the gains recorded at the start of the war amid weak demand from China - the largest consumer of crude in the world - and fears of an economic recession.
On the other hand, there was no change in the total number of active drilling rigs in the United States this week, as the total number of rigs remained at 779 this week, 193 rigs higher than the number of rigs this time in 2021 and 296 rigs less than the number of rigs at the beginning of the year. 2019 before the epidemic.
The weekly report of the American "Baker Hughes" company indicated that oil rigs in the United States decreased by one rig this week, to 621, as gas rigs increased by 1 to 156, while the various rigs remained unchanged at two.
The report pointed out that the number of rigs in the Permian Basin increased by one this week to 353, while the rigs in "Eagle Ford" remained unchanged.
The report noted the decline in crude oil production in the United States to the level of 12 million barrels per day in the week ending December 23, according to the latest weekly Energy Information Administration estimates, while production levels in the United States increased by 300 thousand. barrels per day in 2022 and only 200 thousand barrels compared to the previous year. .
Edit: A.F
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