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Oil revenues... a blessing for the Iraqis or a sword on their necks?
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]is an Iraqi researcher and writer
Wed, Jan 11, 2023 1:40
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] [url=https://twitter.com/share?text=%D8%A5%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%AA %D8%A7%D9%84%D9%86%D9%81%D8%B7... %D9%86%D8%B9%D9%85%D8%A9 %D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%82%D9%8A%D9%8A%D9%86 %D8%A3%D9%85 %D8%B3%D9%8A%D9%81 %D8%B9%D9%84%D9%89 %d8%b1%d9%82%d8%a7%d8%a8%d9%87%d9%85%d8%9f&url=https://www.independentarabia.com/node/410116][/url] [url=whatsapp://send?text=%D8%A5%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%AA %D8%A7%D9%84%D9%86%D9%81%D8%B7... %D9%86%D8%B9%D9%85%D8%A9 %D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%82%D9%8A%D9%8A%D9%86 %D8%A3%D9%85 %D8%B3%D9%8A%D9%81 %D8%B9%D9%84%D9%89 %D8%B1%D9%82%D8%A7%D8%A8%D9%87%D9%85%D8%9F [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] [You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
An oil refinery on the outskirts of the city of Karbala in central Iraq (AFP)[/size]
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Claims to develop the industry and rely on other sources to spare the country potential disasters
[size][You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]is an Iraqi researcher and writer
Wed, Jan 11, 2023 1:40
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] [url=https://twitter.com/share?text=%D8%A5%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%AA %D8%A7%D9%84%D9%86%D9%81%D8%B7... %D9%86%D8%B9%D9%85%D8%A9 %D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%82%D9%8A%D9%8A%D9%86 %D8%A3%D9%85 %D8%B3%D9%8A%D9%81 %D8%B9%D9%84%D9%89 %d8%b1%d9%82%d8%a7%d8%a8%d9%87%d9%85%d8%9f&url=https://www.independentarabia.com/node/410116][/url] [url=whatsapp://send?text=%D8%A5%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%AA %D8%A7%D9%84%D9%86%D9%81%D8%B7... %D9%86%D8%B9%D9%85%D8%A9 %D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%82%D9%8A%D9%8A%D9%86 %D8%A3%D9%85 %D8%B3%D9%8A%D9%81 %D8%B9%D9%84%D9%89 %D8%B1%D9%82%D8%A7%D8%A8%D9%87%D9%85%D8%9F [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] [You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
An oil refinery on the outskirts of the city of Karbala in central Iraq (AFP)[/size]
[rtl][You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] relies entirely on oil revenues in its internal and external economic dealings, according to the description of many local and international specialists, and it now represents more than 90 percent of current spending.[/rtl]
[rtl]This reality made many specialists in political sciences, economics and civil society in Iraq and abroad call for a review of what might turn out in the event of any changes in prices.[/rtl]
[rtl]They expressed their great concern as they watched the escalation of dependence on oil revenues by more than 95 percent, which puts the country on "the palm of the imp," as described by a former oil minister.[/rtl]
[rtl]This reality forced specialists to sound a severe alarm bell, says Ghassan Al-Attiyah, director of the Iraqi Foundation for Development and Democracy, a veteran politician who worked his whole life in opposition to [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] who believes that "the dependence of any country on a single source to sustain the state carries many risks, especially if it is This resource is subject to depletion or interruption due to military or any other reason.[/rtl]
[rtl]big danger[/rtl]
[rtl]Al-Attiyah told "The Independent Arabia" that "many countries that relied on an oil source are working to find an alternative to that by relying [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] at times, or on commercial resources at times, and the best example of this is represented in some Gulf countries that have been able to overcome this The crisis has begun to think seriously about alternative sources of oil, but Iraq is still insisting on unilateral dependence on oil.[/rtl]
[rtl]He pointed out, "This is a great danger to the country. During the monarchy era (1920-1958), for example, there was the Reconstruction Council, which kept receiving 80 percent of oil imports for investment, industry, agriculture, and so on, and allocated 20 percent to the treasury as an operational budget."[/rtl]
[rtl]He explained, "Now the verse has turned negative, the operational budget has become more than 75 percent, and the rest is for investment and work, and in this picture, the Iraqi situation stands on the palm of a demon, and if the oil is cut off for any reason, we will witness a disaster."[/rtl]
[rtl]Al-Attiyah wonders, is there a way to overcome this situation? And he answers, “This is difficult because the nature of the current system indicates that the current ruler or prime minister thinks about today only and not about tomorrow, and wants to go through today’s affairs, because he realizes that there are no more than four years left until the electoral cycle, and on this basis it is very difficult to We find a solution soon, and that any thinking for a solution must be over a period of many years, and this is not possible.[/rtl]
[rtl]Comparison of two times[/rtl]
[rtl]Former Oil Minister Issam Chalabi comments on the oil revenue figures to reveal the extent of corruption that took place, compared between two times, saying that "the total oil revenues achieved by Iraq from 1927 until the US occupation in 2003 amounted to 283 billion dollars, while during the period 2003-2022 it reached 1310 billion dollars.[/rtl]
[rtl]Al-Jabali said, in a special statement, "If we only take the years 2020-2022, it appears that what Iraq has earned in three years is equivalent to the revenues of 76 years. The reality of the oil sector is in a state of continuous deterioration and a very bad situation."[/rtl]
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[rtl]He explained that "Iraq is now an importer of oil derivatives, and that the volume of its imports is around four to six billion dollars annually, and the total imports reached a minimum of $80 million, and it imports gas even though it burns 55 percent of the associated gas only in the southern region, and it imports gas at an average rate of Four to five billion dollars annually, and it will continue to import gas because they have laid pipelines from Iran towards Iraq.[/rtl]
[rtl]Al-Jabali expects that this situation will continue, because this political authority remains, in addition to the lack of development of refineries, nor the network for oil derivatives, except for the establishment of a refinery in Karbala that started work 10 years ago and has not yet been completed, and it has major problems, although its implementation By a Korean company at a cost of six and a quarter billion dollars, at a time when the real cost of it, according to international standards, should not exceed three billion dollars.[/rtl]
[rtl]The country also annually pays licensing rounds, represented by foreign companies, in the range of 14 billion dollars, and these numbers deplete revenues, and despite the existence of these companies, the country has not witnessed development in the oil industry or agriculture, and all of this is attributed to the volume of theft and bribes, and mismanagement and all together It caused severe damage to the Iraqi economy and threatened its future."[/rtl]
[rtl]The only artery oil[/rtl]
[rtl]The major crisis threatening Iraq is its reliance on a single port for exporting oil through the ports of the south on the Arabian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, in addition to exporting 100,000 barrels through the port of Ceyhan in agreement with the Kurdistan region. In the event of any emergency to this port, the export of Iraqi oil will stop completely.[/rtl]
[rtl]Another challenge is the transition to clean energy that reduces dependence on crude oil or fossil fuels, and in general the western world seeks to achieve it.[/rtl]
[rtl]Former Oil Minister Jabbar Ali Al-Luaibi believes that Iraq has become dependent on oil revenues in an unimaginable way by 98 percent, and he said, "Oil has become the only artery that feeds the country, and the responsible authorities must rise and take care of this vital resource, by paying attention to its industry, which has declined in The last years because of the wars that were taking place near the oil fields.[/rtl]
[rtl]Al-Luaibi added, in a special statement, that "the deterioration has increased due to ignorance and negligence recently, so there has been a backwardness in the energy sector in general. It operates in Iraq, which is funded by the oil sector.[/rtl]
[rtl]unilateral export risks[/rtl]
[rtl]Al-Luaibi warned against persisting in dependence on the current reality through the mechanism of relying on oil to finance the state and pay the salaries of its employees.[/rtl]
[rtl]He believes that "oil is on the verge of fluctuations in prices, as we witnessed previously when it reached 140 dollars a barrel in the eighties, then fell quickly, so there is no guarantee that prices will remain and remain stable in global markets."[/rtl]
[rtl]He called on the government to "devise realistic, scientific plans to build the country through what we get from oil revenues, building the country and not indulging in operationalism, giving salaries, and buying electoral votes." Structuring the oil sector, removing it from the abhorrent quota, and handing it over to sincere national and scientific competencies, because Iraq possesses huge wealth of oil and gas, but it is not invested.[/rtl]
[rtl]Al-Luaibi does not hesitate to warn of expected risks as a result of a rapid and possibly significant drop in oil prices in global markets, offset by the absence of strong buffers in the Iraqi economy and budget, which takes us back to previous years that have been repeated since 2014 many times, causing economic, financial and social chaos.[/rtl]
[rtl]The importance of the oil resource[/rtl]
[rtl]The economic advisor to the Prime Minister, Mazhar Muhammad Salih, stressed the importance of the oil resource in determining the directions of the reconstruction cycle in Iraq, and said that its revenues constitute a major contribution to the annual general budget, at a rate of no less than 92 percent of the total annual revenues, in addition to 98 percent of the foreign currency flow. And build up dollar reserves.[/rtl]
[rtl]Saleh indicated an inverse relationship between the drop in oil prices and the growing risks of the internal economic deficit at the level of the general budget or the external deficit at the level of the current account of the balance of payments.[/rtl]
[rtl]The economic advisor to the prime minister, through "Independent Arabia", called for the start of investing the sector's surpluses and putting them into the investment wheel. He also called for confronting the risks of the oil asset cycle by seeking to announce the program of agricultural sovereignty for Iraq and the establishment of a company for national agriculture that undertakes production, marketing, agricultural processing and the provision of advanced technologies in Water management.[/rtl]
[rtl]Saleh called for monitoring financial behavior and addressing manifestations of waste of resources in an ill-conceived manner, after the public finances and budget of the country continued to suffer actions that deviate from its correct goals and programs in earlier times, at rates of no less than 15 to 25 percent annually of total total spending or more.[/rtl]
[rtl]The calls made by the specialists find little resonance in parliament or government institutions, because they are mired in dealing with corruption that eats away at the wall of the state and exposes it to dangers of survival.[/rtl]
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