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Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality

Welcome to the Neno's Place!

Neno's Place Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality


Neno

I can be reached by phone or text 8am-7pm cst 972-768-9772 or, once joining the board I can be reached by a (PM) Private Message.

Established in 2006 as a Community of Reality

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    Analysis: 4 reasons prompted Al-Sudani to demand the survival of US forces in Iraq

    rocky
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    Analysis: 4 reasons prompted Al-Sudani to demand the survival of US forces in Iraq Empty Analysis: 4 reasons prompted Al-Sudani to demand the survival of US forces in Iraq

    Post by rocky Thu 26 Jan 2023, 7:51 am

    Analysis: 4 reasons prompted Al-Sudani to demand the survival of US forces in Iraq

    [ltr]2023.01.26 - 15:11[/ltr]


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    Baghdad - people  
    There were many interpretations that governed the statements of the Prime Minister, Muhammad Shia’ al-Sudani, during his interview with the editor of the Wall Street Journal, on January 15, that his country still needs foreign forces, which are mostly American forces, according to an analysis of the “Wall.” Arabi".  
      
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    The analysis that Nass followed (January 26, 2023) stated that among the most prominent of these explanations is the legality of the survival of the American forces to fight ISIS, work to stabilize the general situation in Iraq, avoid attempts to provoke the American side, seek Washington’s support for his government, and mitigate the severity of the situation. Fluctuation in the price of the dinar against the dollar.  
      
    The Prime Minister, Muhammad Shia al-Sudani, considered that his country still “needs the foreign forces” present in it, noting that “the elimination of ISIS will take some time.”  
      
    In the interview published by The Wall Street Journal, Al-Sudani said, “The threat to Iraq stems from the infiltration of (terrorist organization) cells from Syria.” He stressed, "We do not need forces fighting inside Iraqi territory."  
      
    Al-Sudani not only expressed his belief that “it is not impossible for Iraq to have a good relationship with both Iran and the United States,” but also, through this interview, he showed “friendliness” towards the United States of America, indicating multiple reasons on which he bases his demand for the survival of US forces in Iraq.  
      
    mounting controversy  
      
    According to the American newspaper, the Iraqi Prime Minister’s assertion that the elimination of the terrorist organization “ISIS” needs more time, but comes as a “signal” to the US forces and NATO forces, which are assisting and training Iraqi units in combating organization, but remains largely untouched by actual fighting.  
      
    Al-Sudani's statements, who assumed the position of prime minister last October, sparked a state of controversy in the Iraqi street, in addition to the political statements against him, and the demand for the need to set a timetable for the withdrawal of US forces and the rest of the foreign forces from Iraq.  
      
    By 2017, ISIS no longer controlled Iraqi territory, and Iraqi forces, with the support of the Joint Task Force, were able to liberate Mosul, the last stronghold of the organization.  
      
    Since then, the United States has maintained a limited military presence in Iraq, to ​​train, advise, and support Iraqi forces in their missions to pursue the remnants of the organization. However, ISIS has demonstrated the ability to re-emerge by carrying out attacks against Iraqi security forces.  
      
    Hence, the successive Iraqi governments have shown their desire for the continuation of limited and continuous US military support in Iraq, despite the opposition of some political actors inside Iraq, especially those that have close relations with Tehran.  
      
    Multiple reasons  
      
    It is noteworthy that there are several reasons for the Iraqi prime minister to call for the survival of the American forces, perhaps the most important of which are the following:  
      
    1- The legality of the survival of US forces to fight ISIS: Compared to the case of the invasion of Iraq in 2003, US military operations against ISIS have a legal basis, as the approval of Iraqi governments was the legal cornerstone of those operations, in addition to the support of the UN Security Council, according to Resolution No. 2249 of 2015, which called on states to “take all necessary measures” to prevent terrorist acts committed by the organization, and thus fighting the organization became a goal pursued by the entire international community, not just Iraq.  
      
    In addition, the commander of the US Central Command, General Eric Korella, according to what Al-Youm Al-Sabea newspaper recalled, Sunday, January 15, said in a report by the Central Command, which dealt with the details of the operations that Washington is leading to combat ISIS in Syria and Iraq: “There is an army An ISIS member, in the strict sense, is being held in both countries, and the risks of his escape are catastrophic,” stressing that “about 10,000 ISIS leaders and elements are in detention facilities throughout Syria, and about 20,000 like them are in Iraq.” This is one of the main reasons for Al-Sudani's demand for the US forces to remain in Iraq, and not to set a timetable for their withdrawal.  
      
    2- Working to stabilize the general situation in Iraq: Al-Sudani’s statements about the American presence in Iraq come in the midst of the political developments sweeping the region, and the strategic dimensions of the United States’ call on Iraq to build balanced relations, especially with the “West.”  
      
    It seems that Washington is working to stabilize the general situation in Iraq to maintain energy prices in the global market, and even to streamline the process of exporting Iraqi oil, in a way that serves American interests and contributes to easing the burdens on the European partners of the United States.  
      
    This is what the Iraqi prime minister realized, who had “six” meetings with the US ambassador to Baghdad, Elena Romanowsky, who gave a clear impression of the US administration’s support for the Sudanese government. In addition, Al-Sudani’s statements coincide with the date of his upcoming visit to Washington, which sends an accurate message from him stating “maintaining good relations with the United States.”  
      
    3- Avoiding attempts to provoke the American side: It is clear that Al-Sudani is trying hard to avoid any attempt to provoke the American side. position of prime minister.  
      
    Also, his attempt to find a state of balance that would allow him to succeed in his visit to Washington, strengthen support for his government, and prevent any threats against the American presence; Especially since he knows that the previous government (the Al-Kazemi government) had signed an agreement with the US administration, on December 31, 2021, stipulating the survival of US forces with 2,000 military personnel.  
      
    Al-Sudani is aware of the inability of Iraq, with its current security institutions, to provide effective security protection for US interests, from bases and equipment, or to provide this protection for military advisors who undertake training, arming and intelligence work.  
      
    The importance of Al-Sudani’s demand for the US forces to remain, especially in the framework of his desire to calm down and not raise security problems with the US, after the decline of the attacks of the “state” militias, that is, loyal to Iran, on the US bases since he came to power.  
      
    4- Reducing the fluctuation in the price of the dinar against the dollar: The indicator of fluctuation in the price of the Iraqi dinar against the US dollar indicates a “sharp American warning” and strict restrictions on supplying Iraq with US currency. It is an American message to Iran, so that the latter does not assume that the arrival of the Sudanese government two months ago means more Iraqi facilities for Tehran that could allow it to “break” US sanctions.  
      
    Thus, the “dinar crisis” is not far from Al-Sudani’s choice to make “calm” statements regarding the US military presence.  
      
    Likewise, Al-Sudani is aware of the difference between Iran's public and actual position regarding the US military presence in Iraq. Despite the position of Tehran and its loyal groups inside Iraq on the issue of the need for a US military withdrawal from Iraq, they are fully aware that any US withdrawal may lead to real US sanctions against Iraq, especially with Iraq's inability to abide by US sanctions, as it enjoys a temporary US exception. , It is renewed every (90) days with regard to its imports of Iranian gas and electricity, which means that Tehran will lose its main economic artery that provides it with “hard” currency, in light of the economic conditions it is living in within the framework of US and Western sanctions on it.  
      
    friendly remarks  
      
    In this context, it can be said that the statements of the Iraqi Prime Minister, Muhammad Shia'a al-Sudani, come as an attempt on his part to win Washington's sympathy, and to strengthen Iraqi-American relations, in order to support his government and help it solve some of the security and economic problems that Iraq suffers from. In addition, these statements come as a continuation and activation of the agreement between the US administration and the former Iraqi government, the Al-Kazemi government, regarding the presence of US forces.  
      
    It seems clear that al-Sudani did not make these statements without agreeing with the “coordinating framework,” as he is the framework’s candidate, and the “regime” in Iraq has a security agreement with the United States. Al-Sudani’s statements do not deviate from this agreement, even if it was an attempt on his part to win American sympathy through “very friendly” statements to the United States.  
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