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[size=35][size=35]Including Iraq.. An international report reveals "difficult" challenges facing the Arab countries[/size]
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2023-02-05 | 02:33
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Alsumaria News - Internationals
While some of the data seemed “rosy” for the Gulf oil-exporting countries, in the January 2023 report, entitled: “Updates in the Global Economic Outlook: Inflation is on the verge of a peak amid an atmosphere of low growth,” issued by[url=https://www.alsumaria.tv/Entity/44814/%D8%B5%D9%86%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%82 %D8%A7%D9%84%D9%86%D9%82%D8%AF %D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%84%D9%8A/ar/]International Monetary Fund[/url]However, the reality reflects discrepancies in the countries of the region, especially those that are threatened by "social dangers" after they also witnessed new collapses in their currencies, such as Lebanon, Syria , Iraq , and other countries in the Middle East and North Africa that suffer from several economic crises.
And within the frame, he did not comment[url=https://www.alsumaria.tv/Entity/44814/%D8%B5%D9%86%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%82 %D8%A7%D9%84%D9%86%D9%82%D8%AF %D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%84%D9%8A/ar/]International Monetary Fund[/url]On the expected prospects for the collapse of some currencies in the Arab world, as it is outside the data that the Fund studied in its recent report, and on the other hand, it expressed the social threats resulting from the current economic crises, and gave some advice that must be followed to each of the oil importing and exporting countries.
pointed out[url=https://www.alsumaria.tv/Entity/44814/%D8%B5%D9%86%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%82 %D8%A7%D9%84%D9%86%D9%82%D8%AF %D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%84%D9%8A/ar/]International Monetary Fund[/url]It is estimated that real GDP growth in the Middle East and North Africa region accelerated to 5.4 percent in 2022 from 4.1 percent in 2021, mainly supported by strong expansion in oil-exporting economies that benefited from higher oil prices. And gas and strong growth of non-oil GDP, to offset the negative impact of high food prices and high global interest rates, and among the factors contributing to this growth to a lesser extent, the strong momentum of some of the major oil importers in the region, including Egypt, for example.
He pointed out that "global growth is expected to slow down to 3.2 percent in 2023, against the backdrop of deteriorating global conditions and slowdown in hydrocarbon production."
On the other hand, the fund said that "despite this slowdown in economic activity, growth in Arab countries is still higher than global growth."
And he continued, "The fund's expectations are that inflation reached its peak in 2022 and is gradually declining after that, reflecting an economic scene in which commodity prices decline and tight monetary and financial policies."
Weaknesses in the countries of the region
and for oil-importing countries, he said[url=https://www.alsumaria.tv/Entity/44814/%D8%B5%D9%86%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%82 %D8%A7%D9%84%D9%86%D9%82%D8%AF %D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%84%D9%8A/ar/]International Monetary Fund[/url]“Fiscal and external vulnerabilities remain high in many countries with high levels of debt. In addition, significant downside risks remain. For example, persistent increases in commodity prices and widespread food shortages in these countries could lead to insolvency. Food security that could lead to social unrest, in light of the continuing high unemployment rate, and increasing financial pressures in oil-importing countries.
In this context, he stressed that "accelerating the correction of fiscal policies in countries where financial resources are limited and tight will be critical to maintaining debt sustainability."
He stressed the necessity of coupling"
The region must also continue to work to build resilience in the face of future shocks and advance structural reforms to enhance productivity and inclusive growth, according to the IMF.
Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States The
Fund stressed that "Saudi Arabia is one of the fastest growing economies during the year 2022. There is a need for strong economic growth to continue raising living standards and increasing economic diversification. Maintaining this high growth pace will require maintaining a strong reform momentum, as has happened over the years." the past few years through the implementation of Vision 2030.
Saudi Arabia's non-oil sector, which creates jobs, has grown at the fastest pace in more than a year and helped the kingdom post the fastest overall growth among the major global economies, Bloomberg reported.
Estimates of the General Authority for Statistics showed, on Tuesday, that the non-oil economy grew by 6.2 percent on an annual basis during the last quarter of last year, which is the highest level since the third quarter of 2021.
The oil economy rose by 6.1 percent during the period. Same thanks to the rise in global crude prices.
January report
It is reported that[url=https://www.alsumaria.tv/Entity/44814/%D8%B5%D9%86%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%82 %D8%A7%D9%84%D9%86%D9%82%D8%AF %D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%84%D9%8A/ar/]International Monetary Fund[/url]He lowered his forecast for Saudi gross domestic product growth by 1.1 percentage points to 2.6 percent in 2023, and expected the kingdom to grow by 3.4 percent in 2024, in a January report.
The Fund's latest global economic forecasts indicated a slowdown in the overall growth of the economies of the Middle East and Central Asia this year to 3.2 percent, which is 0.4 percentage points lower than its estimate in October, attributing this to reasons including the effects of the war in Europe.
said chief economist and director of research at[url=https://www.alsumaria.tv/Entity/44814/%D8%B5%D9%86%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%82 %D8%A7%D9%84%D9%86%D9%82%D8%AF %D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%84%D9%8A/ar/]International Monetary Fund[/url]Pierre-Olivier Gorincha, speaking at the report's launch conference on Tuesday, said that the review of the region mainly reflects "the reductions of Egypt and Saudi Arabia, which is due, among other things, to the impact of the war in Ukraine and its repercussions on commodity prices."
He added that for Saudi Arabia, the decline in crude oil production within the framework of the OPEC + agreement also has an impact.
The Deputy Director of Research Department b[url=https://www.alsumaria.tv/Entity/44814/%D8%B5%D9%86%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%82 %D8%A7%D9%84%D9%86%D9%82%D8%AF %D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%84%D9%8A/ar/]International Monetary Fund[/url]Petya Cueva Brooks, during the conference: "The situation is very difficult for oil importers in the region, many of whom are heavily indebted, and therefore food and energy prices, which are still high, are a burden (..) the cost of living crisis is still present and affecting that region So there is also a risk of social unrest."
In the report, the fund expected growth in the Middle East and Central Asia to decline from 5.3 percent in 2022 to 3.2 percent in 2023, with a 0.4 percentage point reduction in forecasts since October, which is attributed to a sharper-than-expected slowdown in growth. Saudi Arabia.
The Fund's expectations indicate a decrease in global inflation from 8.8 percent in 2022 to 6.6 percent in 2023 and 4.3 percent in 2024, two rates that remain higher than pre-pandemic levels (from 2017-2019) by about 3. 5 percent.
The balance of risks remains tilted towards negative developments, however, downside risks have receded since the October 2022 issue of the "Global Economic Outlook" report.
On the plus side, we could see a stronger boost to pent-up demand in many economies or a faster drop in inflation.
On the downside, serious health outcomes in China could dampen the recovery, Russia's war in Ukraine could escalate, and tighter global financing conditions could worsen the debt crisis.
Financial markets may also suddenly start repricing interest rates in reaction to adverse inflation news, while increasing geopolitical fragmentation could impede economic progress, according to the Fund's report.
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2023-02-05 | 02:33
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Alsumaria News - Internationals
highlight the discrepancies in the economies of the Arab countries for a long time, but the most pressing challenges are what the International Monetary Fund has focused on, about "social unrest" that some Arab countries may witness due to the continued rise in commodity prices and the spread of food shortages, which threatens security food, and compounds social challenges.
While some of the data seemed “rosy” for the Gulf oil-exporting countries, in the January 2023 report, entitled: “Updates in the Global Economic Outlook: Inflation is on the verge of a peak amid an atmosphere of low growth,” issued by[url=https://www.alsumaria.tv/Entity/44814/%D8%B5%D9%86%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%82 %D8%A7%D9%84%D9%86%D9%82%D8%AF %D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%84%D9%8A/ar/]International Monetary Fund[/url]However, the reality reflects discrepancies in the countries of the region, especially those that are threatened by "social dangers" after they also witnessed new collapses in their currencies, such as Lebanon, Syria , Iraq , and other countries in the Middle East and North Africa that suffer from several economic crises.
And within the frame, he did not comment[url=https://www.alsumaria.tv/Entity/44814/%D8%B5%D9%86%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%82 %D8%A7%D9%84%D9%86%D9%82%D8%AF %D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%84%D9%8A/ar/]International Monetary Fund[/url]On the expected prospects for the collapse of some currencies in the Arab world, as it is outside the data that the Fund studied in its recent report, and on the other hand, it expressed the social threats resulting from the current economic crises, and gave some advice that must be followed to each of the oil importing and exporting countries.
pointed out[url=https://www.alsumaria.tv/Entity/44814/%D8%B5%D9%86%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%82 %D8%A7%D9%84%D9%86%D9%82%D8%AF %D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%84%D9%8A/ar/]International Monetary Fund[/url]It is estimated that real GDP growth in the Middle East and North Africa region accelerated to 5.4 percent in 2022 from 4.1 percent in 2021, mainly supported by strong expansion in oil-exporting economies that benefited from higher oil prices. And gas and strong growth of non-oil GDP, to offset the negative impact of high food prices and high global interest rates, and among the factors contributing to this growth to a lesser extent, the strong momentum of some of the major oil importers in the region, including Egypt, for example.
He pointed out that "global growth is expected to slow down to 3.2 percent in 2023, against the backdrop of deteriorating global conditions and slowdown in hydrocarbon production."
On the other hand, the fund said that "despite this slowdown in economic activity, growth in Arab countries is still higher than global growth."
And he continued, "The fund's expectations are that inflation reached its peak in 2022 and is gradually declining after that, reflecting an economic scene in which commodity prices decline and tight monetary and financial policies."
Weaknesses in the countries of the region
and for oil-importing countries, he said[url=https://www.alsumaria.tv/Entity/44814/%D8%B5%D9%86%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%82 %D8%A7%D9%84%D9%86%D9%82%D8%AF %D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%84%D9%8A/ar/]International Monetary Fund[/url]“Fiscal and external vulnerabilities remain high in many countries with high levels of debt. In addition, significant downside risks remain. For example, persistent increases in commodity prices and widespread food shortages in these countries could lead to insolvency. Food security that could lead to social unrest, in light of the continuing high unemployment rate, and increasing financial pressures in oil-importing countries.
In this context, he stressed that "accelerating the correction of fiscal policies in countries where financial resources are limited and tight will be critical to maintaining debt sustainability."
He stressed the necessity of coupling"
The region must also continue to work to build resilience in the face of future shocks and advance structural reforms to enhance productivity and inclusive growth, according to the IMF.
Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States The
Fund stressed that "Saudi Arabia is one of the fastest growing economies during the year 2022. There is a need for strong economic growth to continue raising living standards and increasing economic diversification. Maintaining this high growth pace will require maintaining a strong reform momentum, as has happened over the years." the past few years through the implementation of Vision 2030.
Saudi Arabia's non-oil sector, which creates jobs, has grown at the fastest pace in more than a year and helped the kingdom post the fastest overall growth among the major global economies, Bloomberg reported.
Estimates of the General Authority for Statistics showed, on Tuesday, that the non-oil economy grew by 6.2 percent on an annual basis during the last quarter of last year, which is the highest level since the third quarter of 2021.
The oil economy rose by 6.1 percent during the period. Same thanks to the rise in global crude prices.
January report
It is reported that[url=https://www.alsumaria.tv/Entity/44814/%D8%B5%D9%86%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%82 %D8%A7%D9%84%D9%86%D9%82%D8%AF %D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%84%D9%8A/ar/]International Monetary Fund[/url]He lowered his forecast for Saudi gross domestic product growth by 1.1 percentage points to 2.6 percent in 2023, and expected the kingdom to grow by 3.4 percent in 2024, in a January report.
The Fund's latest global economic forecasts indicated a slowdown in the overall growth of the economies of the Middle East and Central Asia this year to 3.2 percent, which is 0.4 percentage points lower than its estimate in October, attributing this to reasons including the effects of the war in Europe.
said chief economist and director of research at[url=https://www.alsumaria.tv/Entity/44814/%D8%B5%D9%86%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%82 %D8%A7%D9%84%D9%86%D9%82%D8%AF %D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%84%D9%8A/ar/]International Monetary Fund[/url]Pierre-Olivier Gorincha, speaking at the report's launch conference on Tuesday, said that the review of the region mainly reflects "the reductions of Egypt and Saudi Arabia, which is due, among other things, to the impact of the war in Ukraine and its repercussions on commodity prices."
He added that for Saudi Arabia, the decline in crude oil production within the framework of the OPEC + agreement also has an impact.
The Deputy Director of Research Department b[url=https://www.alsumaria.tv/Entity/44814/%D8%B5%D9%86%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%82 %D8%A7%D9%84%D9%86%D9%82%D8%AF %D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%84%D9%8A/ar/]International Monetary Fund[/url]Petya Cueva Brooks, during the conference: "The situation is very difficult for oil importers in the region, many of whom are heavily indebted, and therefore food and energy prices, which are still high, are a burden (..) the cost of living crisis is still present and affecting that region So there is also a risk of social unrest."
In the report, the fund expected growth in the Middle East and Central Asia to decline from 5.3 percent in 2022 to 3.2 percent in 2023, with a 0.4 percentage point reduction in forecasts since October, which is attributed to a sharper-than-expected slowdown in growth. Saudi Arabia.
The Fund's expectations indicate a decrease in global inflation from 8.8 percent in 2022 to 6.6 percent in 2023 and 4.3 percent in 2024, two rates that remain higher than pre-pandemic levels (from 2017-2019) by about 3. 5 percent.
The balance of risks remains tilted towards negative developments, however, downside risks have receded since the October 2022 issue of the "Global Economic Outlook" report.
On the plus side, we could see a stronger boost to pent-up demand in many economies or a faster drop in inflation.
On the downside, serious health outcomes in China could dampen the recovery, Russia's war in Ukraine could escalate, and tighter global financing conditions could worsen the debt crisis.
Financial markets may also suddenly start repricing interest rates in reaction to adverse inflation news, while increasing geopolitical fragmentation could impede economic progress, according to the Fund's report.
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